Social Security Reform Slipping Quietly Into the Night

In case you haven't heard, as noted by Brad DeLong in his post pointing to Whiskey Bar's comments and quotes from a story in the Washington Post, Social Security reform legislation is on hold until at least September.  This is also when the panel working on tax reform legislation is scheduled to release its recommendations, and when the Supreme Court nomination is likely to heat up, so the agenda is likely to be crowded:

Social Security debate on hold, AP: Congressional action on Social Security legislation, President Bush's top domestic priority, may not come anytime soon.  The chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, who earlier predicted his panel would deal with a bill in early June, said Wednesday it may not get to it until September at the earliest.  In the Senate, Republicans on the Finance Committee met Thursday morning to talk about Social Security but afterward it was unclear whether they were any closer to action. Rep. Bill Thomas, R-California … was quick to say about Social Security legislation: "There's no hang-up on contents. It's just how many days we got ..." … Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri, the No. 3 Republican in the House, told reporters he doubted lawmakers would deal with the bill this month. That would delay the debate until fall, when the Senate is expected to be consumed with a Supreme Court confirmation battle.  Sen. Charles Grassley, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, told reporters Tuesday he was unsure when his committee would begin work on Social Security legislation…

I will note the free usage of the qualifier “may” in all the statements and reporting, but I don’t see this moving forward.  I do believe Thomas will try and bring Social Security and tax reform into one comprehensive reform package this fall, though the political wisdom of such an attempt seems questionable and, if attempted, I don't believe it will be successful.

Comments

[Bruce Webb]

EPI: Changes in the Trustees projections over time

Tick tock, the clock is ticking. Privatizers who imagine they can just shelve this and come back later just don't understand time's arrow and the concept of entropy. Privatization has not only lost steam, it's firebox is almost cool to the touch. The word is out and once people dare to accept it this battle is over.

Rock the Vote: Don't get Played ,

[Movie Guy]

It's interesting that CAFTA legislation is the principal vehicle that stalled Thomas' tax and Social Security reform efforts.

Perhaps the problems that Senator Grassley has encountered will push Social Security reform off for another year.

Still, Thomas bearing watching...

[lise]

There is no chance of Social Security change in an election year, so this is the critical year in halting the pushes to change the system. In 2 more years the baby boomers are another 2 years older and that much more opposed to limiting benefits.

[Bruce Webb]

Right on lise.

And the whole "Boomer" thing is beginning to lose steam. You can give full credit to "crisis" and then look at the calender and realize that in 2041 the youngest Boomer (born in 1964) will be 77 and the oldest (born in 1946) will be 96. At that point our entire cohort will be rapidly shoving ourselves off to Buffalo, despite whatever longevity advances happen between now and then. Personally I am not booking any cruises for 2041. And yes under current projections that means having to pay interest on the bonds and then paying off the bonds which may or may not create a strain on pocketbooks in the 2020s and 2030s. But from this Boomer's perspective you borrowed the money, you can pay it back. Plenty of 20 and 30 somethings are entering into 30 year mortgages right now to buy $400,000 houses on postage stamp lots. If you think you will have a problem paying back the money you borrowed from Boomers since 1983 come 2025 maybe you should have bought a 'fixer' instead of the McMansion.

Boomer's have been getting hammered for a generation pretty much just for existing and for daring to be projected to get old some day. More and more it looks like we actually paid our own way and then some. Yes our demographic bulge was like the proverbial pig in the python, but all evidence shows that we were able to digest it all on our own. The notion that selfish Boomers were just handing kids a lemon is fading and the idea that we have given younger people an opportunity to make lemonade is rising.

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