« Falling Wages | Main | Turning Coal into Gold through Tax Breaks »

Sunday, February 26, 2006

The New Silk Road

This isn't the first time China has accumulated a large stock of foreign currency reserves through a trade surplus:

China, a vortex for the world's gold, by Keith Bradsher, The New York Times/IHT: China has such a huge stash of other countries' money that it could, in theory, give bonuses equaling half a year's wages to all 770 million of its famously low-paid workers. China will soon release statistics showing that it has passed Japan as the biggest holder of foreign currency the world has ever seen. Its reserves already exceed $800 billion and are on track to reach $1 trillion by the end of the year, up from just under $4 billion in 1989. But China has held a similar position before.

The current pile, much of it invested in U.S. Treasury securities or mortgages on American homes, is a result of China's selling more goods than it buys and of foreign money pouring in for the building of factories, apartment towers, office buildings and shopping malls. China is not alone; oil exporters are also piling up cash and trying to figure out what to do with it, leading to disputes like the current one over a Dubai company's designation to run cargo terminals at American ports.

History offers parallels to the yawning U.S. trade deficit and the resulting accumulation of dollars in China. China sells to American companies almost six times as much as it buys from them, but this is not the first time China has been an export powerhouse. Ancient Rome, for example, found that it had little except glass that China wanted to buy. Nearly 2,000 years ago, Pliny complained about the eastward flow of Roman gold along the Silk Road in exchange for Chinese silk.

Long-distance trade collapsed during the early years of the Dark Ages. But through the next several periods of rapid growth in international commerce - from A.D. 600 to 750, from 1000 to 1300 and from 1500 to 1800 - China again tended to run very large trade surpluses. By 1700, Europe was paying with silver for as much as four-fifths of its imports from China because China was interested in little that Europe manufactured.

A longstanding mystery for economic historians lies in how so much silver and gold flowed to China for centuries for the purchase of Chinese goods yet caused little inflation in China. Many of China's manufactured goods remained much cheaper than those from other countries until the early 1800s, despite the rapidly growing supply of silver in the Chinese economy. One theory is that Chinese output was expanding as fast as the supply of precious metal. Another is that the Chinese were saving the silver and gold, not spending it.

The same phenomenon has appeared today, as dollars inundating China have resulted in practically no increase in prices for most goods and services - although real estate prices have jumped in most cities. China has an even easier time preventing domestic prices from rising these days because modern banking techniques allow its central bank to buy up the dollars and take them out of everyday circulation. The central bank has accumulated the country's immense foreign currency reserves in the process.

The British Empire in the 19th century worked out a way to maintain a large long-term trade surplus with China. So far, however, nobody has suggested that the United States also try getting millions of Chinese people addicted to imported opium.

What goods and services will we get China "addicted" to? What will our "opium" be?

    Posted by on Sunday, February 26, 2006 at 10:17 AM in China, Economics, International Trade | Permalink  TrackBack (2)  Comments (6)

    TrackBack

    TrackBack URL for this entry:
    http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451b33869e200d83426a52053ef

    Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The New Silk Road:

    » Unreliable Chinese statistics from Simon World

    Sure it's only about 3 weeks old, but I heartily recommend the 88s look at the (un)-reliability of Chinese statistics and follow the comments for further debate. Then recall this is the world's sixth biggest economy and most populous nation. Finally as... [Read More]

    Tracked on Tuesday, February 28, 2006 at 07:09 PM

    » Unreliable Chinese statistics from Simon World

    Sure it's only about 3 weeks old, but I heartily recommend the 88s look at the (un)-reliability of Chinese statistics and follow the comments for further debate. Then recall this is the world's sixth biggest economy and most populous nation. Finally as... [Read More]

    Tracked on Tuesday, February 28, 2006 at 07:13 PM


    Comments

    Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

    -->