What Jobs Should Laid-Off Workers Be Retrained To Do?

This article is an attempt to address an often repeated, but hard to answer question, what jobs to target when designing education and retraining programs for displaced workers. However, the article is more successful at identifying the problems than it is at finding a recipe for solving the displaced worker problem:

Retraining Laid-Off Workers, but for What?, by Louis Uchitelle, NY Times: Layoffs have disrupted the lives of millions of Americans over the last 25 years. The cure that these displaced workers are offered — retraining and more education — is heralded as a sure path to new and better-paying careers. But often that policy prescription does not work, as this book excerpt explains. It is adapted from "The Disposable American: Layoffs and Their Consequences" by Louis Uchitelle, an economics writer for The New York Times...

JO GOODRUM, a thin, energetic woman older than her audience of aircraft mechanics ... got their attention with a single, unexpected sentence... Her husband, she said, had been laid off six times since the late 1980's. And yet here she was, standing before them, in one piece, cheerful, apparently O.K., giving survival instructions to the mechanics, who would be laid off themselves in 10 days.

They were, in nearly every case, family men in their 30's and 40's who had worked for United Airlines since the mid-1990's. ... Confrontation had brought on the layoffs. Influenced by militants in their union local, Hoosier Air Transport Lodge 2294 of the International Association of Machinists, the 2,000 mechanics at the center had engaged in a work slowdown for many months, and then a refusal to work overtime. But rather than give ground, United responded by outsourcing, sending planes to nonunion contractors elsewhere in the country. That scared the mechanics. They quieted down and, in effect, authorized the leaders of Lodge 2294 to make peace. ... In this state of mind, the union was helping to usher the 60 laid-off mechanics quietly away. It had rented the conference room on this cold January evening in 2003 to introduce the men to what amounted to a boot camp for recycling laid-off workers back into new, usually lower-paying lines of work.

SIMILAR federally subsidized boot camps, organized by state and local governments, often in league with unions, have proliferated in the United States since the 1980's, and now many cities have them. Unable to stop layoffs, government has taken on the task of refitting discarded workers for "alternate careers." ... The presumption — promoted by economists, educators, business executives and nearly all of the nation's political leaders, Democrats and Republicans alike — holds that in America's vibrant and flexible economy there is work, at good pay, for the educated and skilled. The unemployed need only to get themselves educated and skilled and the work will materialize...

If the workers were already trained, as the mechanics certainly were, then what they needed was additional training and counseling as a transition into well-paying, unfilled jobs in other industries. If the transition failed to function as advertised, ... the accepted wisdom suggested that it was the fault of the workers themselves. Their failure to land good jobs was due to personality defects or a resistance to acquiring new skills or a reluctance to move where the good jobs were...

You cannot be an engineer or an accountant without a degree; in that sense, education and training certainly do count. Furthermore, in the competition for the jobs that exist, the educated and trained have an edge. That advantage shows up regularly in wage comparisons. But you cannot earn an engineer's or an accountant's typical pay if companies are not hiring engineers and accountants...

For the mechanics at the Days Inn, the retraining process would begin in a few days with workshops in résumé writing and interviewing skills, personality evaluations and job counseling — and, for a lucky few, tuition grants to go back to school. The mechanics were being "counseled out" of their well-paying trade, as some of them wryly put it...

In the blue-collar world, aircraft mechanics are at the top, and these were painful economies for them. They are the highly skilled people who repair and overhaul the nation's airliners. Each mechanic in the room had completed two years of college like schooling to qualify for the exacting ... work carried out at the maintenance center. Several compared their role proudly to that of a pilot, claiming as much credit as the pilots for the safety of air travel.

Now they were falling out of this high-level world, in most cases for good. They were unlikely to match or come close in their next jobs to the level of pay that would soon cease. They would be newcomers again in the work force. They must learn how to get a foot in the door... Their careers were gone, and the grief at this loss must be absorbed in order to move on. ...

Three months later, in April 2003, United abruptly laid off the 1,100 remaining mechanics... Outsourcing had won, hands down...

IN an earlier era, the two sides would have tried to settle their differences through negotiation and would probably have succeeded. There was really no other alternative. The outsourcing of maintenance did not exist before the 1980's; airlines did their own maintenance. But now layoffs and outsourcing had become an easy and acceptable option. Everywhere in America, the barriers to layoffs came down one after another starting in the late 1970's, and by the turn of the century there was acquiescence. ...

What had started as an escape from a unionized, often militant work force took on a second function. The outsourcing of heavy maintenance became a means for the airlines to cut costs, and nearly every major airline gradually moved that way...

The 60 mechanics gathered at the Days Inn that January evening were in the fourth wave to lose their jobs, bringing the total to 1,200. The recycling of former mechanics into new lines of work was now in full swing... Tori E. Bucko... turned out to be the main speaker, the chief of the boot camp that the mechanics were being encouraged to enter.

Given her responsibilities, Ms. Bucko was surprisingly young — only 30. But ... she would soon play a more important role in the lives of many of the mechanics than ... the union they were leaving behind. The program that Ms. Bucko directed was sponsored by the Indianapolis Private Industry Council, a coalition of companies, unions, government agencies and civic groups. Virtually all of the funding comes from Washington, which sends less than $7 billion a year to the states to recycle laid-off workers back into jobs. ... Ms. Bucko's task, in this initial presentation at the Days Inn, was to encourage the 60 mechanics to take the next step. There would be no help for them if they failed to show up at the AIR Project's center, in an industrial park not far from the airport. There, they would be asked to fill out a detailed enrollment application and submit to a series of workshops and evaluations.

What Ms. Bucko did not mention was the pressure on her employer, Goodwill Industries, and on herself, to meet the employment goals specified in the federal grant — to get most of the mechanics re-employed at 90 percent of their previous wage. Meeting this goal was a condition for getting more federal money once the initial grant expired. ... But the employment goals were not met. They could not be met; they were too optimistic, mythically optimistic. Ms. Bucko knew that as she struggled to meet the standard. ...

Job training, as a result, became a channeling process, channeling the unemployed into the unfilled jobs that do exist, with a veneer of training along the way. Yet job training is central to employment policy. It has been since 1982, when Congress passed the Job Training Partnership Act at the urging of President Ronald Reagan. President Bill Clinton took job training ... further, making it available to higher-income workers — including the aircraft mechanics in Indianapolis.

Saying that the country should solve the skills shortage through education and training became part of nearly every politician's stump speech, an innocuous way to address the politics of unemployment without strengthening either the bargaining leverage of workers or the federal government's role in bolstering labor markets.

But training for what? The reality, as the aircraft mechanics discovered, is painfully different from the reigning wisdom. Rather than having a shortage of skills, millions of American workers have more skills than their jobs require. That is particularly true of college-educated people, who make up 30 percent of the population today, up from 10 percent in the 1960's. They often find themselves working in sales or as office administrators, or taking jobs in hotels and restaurants, or becoming carpenters, flight attendants and word processors.

The number of jobs that require a bachelor's degree has indeed been growing, but more slowly than the number of graduates... The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics offers a rough estimate of the imbalance in the demand for jobs as opposed to the supply. ... On average, there were 2.6 job seekers for every job opening over the first 41 months of the survey. That ratio would have been even higher, according to the bureau, if the calculation had included the millions of people who stopped looking for work because they did not believe that they could get decent jobs.

So the demand for jobs is considerably greater than the supply, and the supply is not what the reigning theory says it is. Most of the unfilled jobs pay low wages and require relatively little skill, often less than the jobholder has. From the spring of 2003 to the spring of 2004, for example, more than 55 percent of the hiring was at wages of $13.25 an hour or less: hotel and restaurant workers, health care employees, temporary replacements and the like.

That trend is likely to continue. Seven of the 10 occupations expected to grow the fastest from 2002 through 2012, according to the Labor Department, pay less than $13.25 an hour, on average: retail salesclerks, customer service representatives, food service workers, cashiers, janitors, nurse's aides and hospital orderlies.

The $13.25 threshold is important. More than 45 percent of the nation's workers, whatever their skills, earned less than $13.25 an hour in 2004, or $27,600 a year for a full-time worker. That is roughly the income that a family of four must have in many parts of the country to maintain a standard of living minimally above the poverty level. Surely lack of skill and education does not hold down the wages of nearly half the work force.

Something quite different seems to be true: the oversupply of skilled workers is driving people into jobs beneath their skills and driving down the pay of jobs equal to their skills. Both happened to the aircraft mechanics laid off by United.

Comments

[nate]

Management opportunities (Enron, Worldcom, Arthur Andersen and others) also need to be considered.

http://simurl.com/wifwol

[calmo]

This seems obvious:

the oversupply of skilled workers is driving people into jobs beneath their skills and driving down the pay of jobs equal to their skills. Both happened to the aircraft mechanics laid off by United.

and possibly true in all 'First World' countries as technological progress cuts into skilled or semi-skilled jobs and replaces personnel with machines and/or less skilled workers.

Those executive voices (see nate's favorites) crying for better or more qualified talent are laughably self-extinguishing.

nate's reference to those management opportunities should cause a stampede from all and sundry who need no particular qualifications to do better than their predecessors.

[save_the_rustbelt]

sure path my butt

the quality jobs are going overseas and the low quality jobs are going to illegals - the perfect storm for middle America, paid for by our own taxes

The political backlash is coming. The phrases I've heard to describe George Bush from middle America are quite ugly.

[Stormy]

Another myth hits the dust. So many myths and promises about this brave new world. Each day writes the obituary of another.

Eventually, of course, economists will figure out what was happening in the first five years of the second millenium, but by that time they will be scratching their heads again.

[save_the_rustbelt]

I just breezed through the Detroit papers, and Prof. Mankiw may have been correct.

Workers are anxious to pack up and get the hell out of Michigan, because the long term prognosis is not good.

Detroit has lost more than 50% of population, and this is probably the year the city goes bankrupt (it will be taken into receivership by the state).

The bi-coastal economy may become a reality, sooner than I thought. I'm looking forward to voting in 2006 and 2008.

[anne]

http://www.calvorn.com/gallery/photo.php?photo=6051&u=4|4|...

Black-capped Chickadee at Sunset
New York City--Central Park, The Ramble.

STR, after all, there is an eloquence to you :)

[Movie Guy]

"What Jobs Should Laid-Off Workers Be Retrained To Do?"

Employment counselors.

[anne]

Again, we should be paying attention to the student led protests against a partial work resturcturing in France. There is a reason for the protests and a reason the students have generated support from labor and beyond, so that I believe we will have a change in the French government before the law goes is made effective.

[Movie Guy]

Why don't you fill us in on what is happening in France?

There are similar labor objections elsewhere in Europe.

[Trance]

Employment counselors, huh? Would this bring any value to anyone, rather than them being some looters trying to take money from people who are or will be in economically difficult situation anyway?
For a somewhat idealized account on jobs, companies and things that work, Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand will give some insight.
Outsourcing jobs and hiring illegals is the companies' ways of doing business as cheap as possible. But do they realize they're their own gravediggers. Or maybe not, it's the grave of the people willing to live on credit cards, purchasing products they would not otherwise afford. China is currently lending each American $2000/yr.
Maybe we should all start to emigrate to China or India get those outsourced jobs.

[nate]

http://www.calvorn.com/gallery/photo.php?photo=5600&exhibition=15&pass=public&size=default&lang=eng

[anon]

The extended, "exclusive" bankruptcy process at United Airlines was not a high point for American mgt or the U.S. legal system. United management was protected from competition during the process, and United management had a monopoly on the bankruptcy process. Workers, the public, and competitor airlines got needlessly shafted for the benefit of United management and United vendors (lawyers, consultants). The $99 million bill for Kirkland (lawyers - of Ken Starr renowned?) was billed to the nearest $0.10, which is probably a false level of precision and thus the bill and lawyers lack credibility. Think how many kids in poor neighborhoods in Chicago could go to college for $5 million. The local Chicago people that got rich off the United fiasco grease the powerful squeaks with "philanthropy" and "charitable giving".

http://www.atca.org/singlenews.asp?item_ID=2100&comm=0

January 10th, 2005 - Ruling May Open Door to Bids for United

By MICHELINE MAYNARD
The New York (NY) Times
January 10, 2005

[Movie Guy]

Trance,

It was a joke.

We've covered this ground many times. A number of quality answers have been provided previously.

Would some of the displaced workers make very good employment counselors? Yes. The likelihood that they would lie to you like so many others should be reasonably small.

[anon]

A bunch of baby opossums need homes. In the meanwhile, they need a good diet.

http://simurl.com/vowjeb

[camille roy]

I noticed the pro-globalization, re-training people all seem to make the same assumption, and it is one that mystifies me.

The assumption is that as an economy, this country does not need a tradeables sector. We can't compete with cheap offshore labor, therefore bye bye tradeables.

They don't go right out and say it, but when you look at the list of occupations that will survive offshoring, it's obvious, as the only occupations which will survive are those that involve face to face services. In other words, non-tradeables.

Well, obviously, you can't run a world class economy without tradeables. Or are these folks who are projecting our future also projecting (without saying as much) a current account deficit expanding for the current 7% of GDP to oh, say, 500% of GDP? Just wondering. And why exactly, if we have nothing to trade, will exporters continue to finance us? Hmmh.

What does it mean if we enter the era of globalization with a large tradeables sector, and then lose those industries, those factories, and that technology base? Isn't globalization supposed to enhance trade, not destroy it? But if we end up not producing anything to trade, then this grand experiment won't have worked out too well. Pity.

[anon]

In the future, United will be sold and absorbed by others in the industry. United is already losing terminal space in O'Hare to American and Continental.

The bankruptcy process transferred wealth to United management from previous shareholders. Management will sell the equity and walkaway.

United management will be outsourced.

[anon]

An intuitive person might start to look for patterns and commonalities: United and other business meltdowns.

[Movie Guy]

I am reminded of great commentary in a scene from a movie:

"I never did one thing right in my life. Not one damn thing. That takes skill."

- Samuel L. Jackson, The Long Kiss Goodnight, 1998

[Movie Guy]

Here are two articles by Elizabeth Warren which I recommend. One artilce is a takeoff from the other.

Elizabeth Warren's observations are excellent in my judgment.

Rewriting the Rules: Families, Money and Risk
by Elizabeth Warren, Leo Gottlieb Professor of Law at Harvard Law School
Published by the Social Science Research Council
21 October 2005

The Middle Class on the Precipice
Rising financial risks for American families
by Elizabeth Warren
Harvard Magazine
January - February 2006

[Movie Guy]

As mentioned, we have covered this ground a few times previously. Here's the most recent thread, as I recall.

Middle-Aged Workers and the New Economy - March 06, 2006

My observations:

The economists and analysts who pulled us into policy decisions pushing pro globalization strategies at too quick a pace failed to understand the full scope of Economic Hydrology Theory, the transfer of production and FDI to the lowest cost global providers.

We are still in the early stages of the process. It will become more alarming and disheartening as we continue on this path.

The most viable solutions for citizens are to pursue education and business opportunities that are tied directly to community population center needs whereby direct services and labor can not be displaced by foreign-source substitution.

As we know, there is no immediate, realistic solution being applied to our growing trade deficits. We have created a playing field that will not support trade balance under existing currency valuation rules, trade practices and fees, as well as a host of other factors. Available transportation and communication efficiencies have modified the framework under which we operate our economy.

Individuals concerned about employment displacement would be wise to pursue opportunities that require physical presence services within local communities.

We need more small business incubators to support the future needs of our population.

Physical presence, for the majority of American citizens, is an essential consideration. And it's one that will pay off if participating in the right occupations.

Physical presence and the right occupation. That's the future ticket in my judgment.

[Movie Guy]

The following is a bit unfair, in terms of portraying overall U.S. imports and exports, but it does provide a measure of trade between the USA and China.

TOP 10 IMPORTS FROM CHINA IN 2004 and TOP 10 U.S. EXPORTS TO CHINA IN 2004

According to the Dallas Morning News, August 2005:

TOP 10 IMPORTS FROM CHINA IN 2004
1. Furniture
2. Toys
3. Footwear
4. Plastic products
5. Computers
6. Tools, screws, latches, etc.
7. Sporting goods
8. Cooking, ironing, heat appliances
9. Kitchenware
10. Electrical and electronic products
[We can soon add automobile parts and components to the top imports list. - MG]

TOP 10 U.S. EXPORTS TO CHINA IN 2004
1. Paper and paper waste
2. Mixed metal scrap
3. Fabrics and raw cotton
4. Newspapers
5. Foam waste and scrap
6. Logs and lumber
7. Wood pulp
8. Plastics
9. Frozen fish
10. Other synthetic resins

SOURCE: PIERS Maritime Research

So, which occupations come to mind in light of those being displaced based on China's growing exports to the USA? Any of the leading exports goods and related employment for U.S. goods headed to China sound appealing?

[save_the_rustbelt]

It will be the scrap metal business for me - not.

The only quality phsyical presence job I know of that is going to show growth is nursing (also the replacement of hundreds of thousands of exhausted boomer nurses). Knowing hundreds of nurses, there are mental and emotional qualities needed by a successful nurse not present in most people.

Another job with needs is long-haul truck driving. This is not a bad job, except it tends to destroy the family. Hey, that's treat.

Altogether now...

"Do you need a cart today?"

[save_the_rustbelt]

"You cannot be an engineer or an accountant without a degree; in that sense, education and training certainly do count."

Most of Proctor and Gambles accounting department was moved from Cincinnati and outsourced to the southern office ---- in Costa Rica. Apparently accounting is a big business in Costa Rica. So who needs American accountants.

[Al]

Do you think US will continue to export jobs to and import products from china?

[Al]

Should US continue to export jobs to China?

[Al]

If you have not read Dan Pink's book "a whole new mind", you better do. Don't blame but be ready. (Have you read Dan Pink's "a whole new mind"?)

[calmo]

Ok, ok I'll read it.
But first back to that question that I'm sure I'm qualified to respond to:
What Jobs Should Laid-Off Workers Be Retrained To Do?
Historically, the first wave of blue collar workers were expected to learn the software/high tech trade. And I suppose some did and the noise from that dislocation was not too bad. But lately the subsequent waves of blue collar workers do not have that option as the software workers are having an exit wave of their own. [I think the PIMCO site is where I saw a graph showing lots of laid-off workers joining the RE agents. I think it's Menzie Chinn at Econobrowser that has a graph showing the present potential for job dislocation.] Now it could be that there is a list of New Things on the horizon (does Barry Ritholtz have something of this sort at BP?) and RE agents (who have time on their hands anyway, right?) might pick up another 6 week accreditation on Nanotubes (or whatever). But this is going to be a lot harder than banging in another 6% commission. It might take longer than 6 weeks too. The remuneration might be on a globally competitive basis and unless you take the 6 week CEO course, this exercise might be a tad disappointing.
Histerically, we are too productive and too inept at sharing that productivity. I was told that the King and Queen of Poland (Did you forget Poland? not me.) are elected and although you may think that's a hoot, it is the seed for this idea: CEO for a day. We'll all get our day to be the Big Shot and live happily ever after.
So we should be re-trained to share.
I know you were hoping for something concrete, some insider secret, some express ticket to nanodom, but that's not it people.
You people who love your jobs out there have to be weaned off that attachment or it's a race to the bottom. Tell your boss to take the day off. Or tell him you are taking the day off and your helper will do your work. Break the news to him gently: you are rotating.
I'm sure this is the answer. Just finding a way to get there...

[a]

I am skeptical of the quality of US eduation at college level tosay: I don't know about the quality in the 80's, but from I have learned, it seems that today it is much worse.

My own American colleague (one in his mid 40's) would tell us how, in his generation, one learned a lot as a college student, including several programming languages. Today, most of the college graduates we hired can do some Excel spreadsheet and that is considered good skilled.

I remember back in UPENN year, a famous Mathematician (in his 70's) decided to teach Linear Algebra at undegraduate level after a long time. So he taught his normal way: you have to prove things. His class started with 100 some students as typically the size for that class. After the mid term, only 30 remained (he actively talked lots of students out of his class). I did know one undergraudate from his class (an Asian who went to Britain for some international high school program) who just loved that kind of class. But of course the professor was kindly asked by the department not to teach that level any more.

I took his graduate level Complex Analysis course (loved it). But in the first class he was so slow in explaining how to add complex numbers, we (graduate students) were all puzzled. Turned out that there is one American graduate student in the class and he did not learn basics of Complex number before. Sure the American student failed his qualify exam later in the year and disappeared.

My point is: how can one argue that "the oversupply of skilled workers is driving people into jobs beneath their skills and driving down the pay of jobs equal to their skills", while not looking at the quality of Skills that people acquired through education?

And meanwhile, foreign trained (at least up to high school level, and lots trianed up to college level) students benefit from graduate level maths/engineering/scince training in US and are benefiting from demand of high skilled white color workers, as evidenced by the high demand of H1-B visa and good salary.

[camille roy]

Well, a, since you have seen fit to lecture Americans about skills, I will lecture you about your English: bad. Annoying. Go back to school, dude.

[a]

Camiile, I agree I am not so good at English.

But to make you more annoyed: many American Undergraudate students are complaining about their TA's in Engineering schools, because most of TA's speak English just as I do.

No matter how bad my English is to you, I am here to provide a different perspetive to Americans. Perhaps you don't like my English, perhpas you don't like my perspective. Fine. I can shut up. Not a problem for me.

[Emmanuel]

There are some nuggets if you read through the article, but do verify:

The number of jobs that require a bachelor's degree has indeed been growing, but more slowly than the number of graduates, according to the Labor Department, and that trend is likely to continue through this decade. "The average college graduate is doing very well," said Lawrence F. Katz, a labor economist at Harvard. "But on the margin, college graduates appear to be more vulnerable than in the past."

Also...

From the spring of 2003 to the spring of 2004, for example, more than 55 percent of the hiring was at wages of $13.25 an hour or less: hotel and restaurant workers, health care employees, temporary replacements and the like.

That trend is likely to continue. Seven of the 10 occupations expected to grow the fastest from 2002 through 2012, according to the Labor Department, pay less than $13.25 an hour, on average: retail salesclerks, customer service representatives, food service workers, cashiers, janitors, nurse's aides and hospital orderlies.

[cm]

camille: Actually a's English is quite good in my judgement -- at least the written version :-). Not sure mine is better, but neither am I an "American".

[cm]

a, camille: You have to consider the "time structure" of skill and education, together with the fact (?) of a changing college population.

Before I start my presentation, I have to say I can see some of what 'a' describes in the "material" in interviews and hired in my workplace. I have seen PhDs with what I would say are, ahem, quite baseline skills and BS/MS that cannot even understand and do the most basic thing (including US degree holders). Anyway, on with it.

Most people in today's workforce, esp. those with considerable industry experience, went to college a generation ago.

Let's say somebody spent 5 years in college, and started on their first job right after. Then with N years of industry under their belt, they left college N, and entered it N+5 years ago. For somebody with 10-15 years, this means they entered college 1986-1991. Nominally assuming people leave college at 25, this person would now be 35-40. Of course this is assuming a "straight" education track with no major "interruption" between high school/college.

Vary numbers a bit, and you see where this is going. Declining college quality within (say) the last decade is very much consistent with a competent workforce today.

Another thing is that it was never so that 100% of entrants/graduates are of top-notch "quality". What I suspect happened is that due to a mix of credentialism, underinvestment, education-as-a-fee-service, and loosened admission requirements we have a larger college population at lower aggregate skill level, at a likely maintained or slightly increased absolute volume of "quality" output, but a declining share of such.

What 'a' sees in the way of lower skill level could therefore be merely a statistical effect.

And it's not just a US phenomenon. It happens everywhere there is underinvestment in education. It's troubling nonetheless. When the current (effective) show-runners exit industry, either voluntarily, by way of layoff, or by being denied reentrance via age discrimination, we could face a massive skill shortage.

Perhaps what 'a' describes is the start of it.

[Movie Guy]

a,

I agree with you.

[cm]

OTOH, what should be relevant is that my experience with work force entrants is mostly for foreign-born degree holders, so it does not necessarily speak for the quality of "American" students, but certainly the "American" education system, and specifically degree issuance.

[cm]

And of course education does not only mean college, but includes the whole social network effect of school education and how people's expectations of life and careers are shaped. Judging by contemporary TV/movies and what one can observe on the street, the number one word in the vocabulary of people under 30 is "whatever", and the careers portrayed as successful are definitely not of technical nature, but of the business management, middleman, rent-collection type. And lately house-flipper.

[me]

a,

I would rather be anoyed with you English (I am not) and discuss and diagree with you than to not hear you at all.

[me]

Annoyed, two Ns. My cat frequently helps me. Sorry.

[reason]

cm,
It is an interesting point you bring up. When I went to uni (as we called it in Australia) we were a small elite bunch. I can remember, that careers guidance people told us in Australia, that with salaries as they were and taxes as they were, we would possibly never get our investment (then only time) in a degree back financially.

It was also so then, that something like 90% of people with sufficiently good high school grades to get into Medicine (where one was assured of a good income), did Medicine. I'm not saying their aren't some late bloomers out there, and it is true that average raw IQ test scores have been rising, but just on the basis of sheer quantity, the quality of graduates is probably falling. Without starting to talk about credentialism.

As against that, I'm not necessarily convinced that we don't need to completely rethink our education systems from the ground up anyway. The rate of change in technology is so great, and the breakdown of the corporation supported career development for all but the managerial priesthood so complete that we need seriously to think of intelligent lifetime learning solutions as something for everybody - at the appropriate learning rate and skill level for each individual.

My father was a scientist, and our family was all substance over form. The worst you could be was a "salesman type". I'm afraid our whole society is heading in exactly the other direction. Eventually, we will need technical people, who deal with truth and make things happen, I'm just afraid they will be a dark period before people start to realise it. Remember "Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy"?

[me]

1 in 10 of these employees makes as muich or more than they did 5 years ago. That's 90% that don't. That may explain why Bush gets no credit for teh booming economy.

Going still tough 5 years after Sony layoffs

By BILL TORPY
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 03/26/06
For 20 years they manufactured America's soundtrack.

Hundreds of workers at the Sony Music plant in Carrollton produced Michael Jackson's "Thriller," Bruce Springsteen's "Born in the USA" and other hits by the truckload in the form of LPs and cassettes. Overtime was common, wages healthy, and the plant's work force swelled to 1,500. Most say it was the best job they ever had.

But the music stopped March 31, 2001. After having its work force downsized several times, the manufacturing plant closed. Cassettes had gone the way of LPs. And so, too, went the remaining 380 manufacturing jobs, gone just like 80,000 others in Georgia in the past five years.

Sheila Coker was 48 — the average age of the plant's workers — and an employee of 18 years. She summed up what most were thinking: "I must admit, I'm scared. Every time you listen to the news, someplace is laying off. You wonder: Will there be enough jobs for all of us?"

Five years later the answer is yes, there were enough jobs. All those who wanted employment found it, although it often wasn't easy. In most cases the new jobs carried less pay, fewer benefits, sporadic hours and less security.

The former Sony factory workers now serve lunches at schools, work as clerks, drive trucks, guard prisoners and help people recovering from surgery or struggling with Alzheimer's.

Some like their new career, although just one in 10 former Sony employees interviewed for this story earn what they did five years ago.

It took Coker four years to find a job she could live with. She took business classes at a technical college and struggled to learn computers with women 30 years her junior. Then she became an unwanted middle-aged job seeker.

Coker, who has two grown boys, cleaned a doctor's office, worked part time as a clerk, and operated a coupon machine at a grocery store. Her husband's health declined, so they used her 401(k) to survive.

She landed a teller's position at a credit union office in Carrollton last summer and enjoys the job and the daily interactions with the public. But she earns about $5 an hour less than the $13 she made at the plant, which was previously owned by CBS Records.

"I never will be getting that again," she said of her Sony salary. "It's hard out there. The worst thing is that employers know people will take whatever they [can] get. I think employers abuse that."

Losing a "lifetime" position and being tossed into a world of low-paying, interchangeable jobs gave Coker an unhealthy helping of insecurity, even though her current job seems stable. "There's always younger people who can pick things up faster," she said.

Workers on the distribution side of things fared better.

Sony kept 170 workers in its distribution center in the back of the plant. That has since expanded. Several former Sony employees have been hired back, as have many temporary employees. One former Sony manufacturing employee working there said he had almost caught up to his 2001 pay.

'Lifetime jobs' disappear

The former Sony manufacturing workers' experiences are pretty typical, said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington, D.C., think tank.

"The jobs we think of as middle-class, lifetime jobs — we're losing them," Baker said. "People had a reasonable expectation of a comfortable living standard. They may find a job, but not the kind of job you'll be able to support a family on or send a kid to college."

In 2000, Georgia had 530,000 manufacturing jobs, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Last year it had 449,000. During that same time, the state gained 130,000 service jobs, jumping from 3,200,000 to 3,330,000.

The loss of manufacturing jobs continues to make news. Last week, Fruit of the Loom announced it would close its Rabun County plant, which employed 930. It was the county's largest employer.

Good news came this month as Kia announced it would build a $1.2 billion plant in West Point. The plant and its suppliers will reportedly create 4,500 jobs. But this news came on the heels of General Motors' saying it was closing its Doraville plant, with more than 3,000 workers, and Ford's announcing the demise of its Hapeville plant, with 2,100 workers.

Manufacturing jobs are desirable because they pay more, on average, than many other kinds of employment.

Labor Department figures show that an average American manufacturing worker earns $680 a week, a retail worker earns $373, and a "leisure, hospitality" worker, who is probably not full-time, makes $240.

Glandra Cameron, 44, falls into that retail category as an associate at Carrollton's new Wal-Mart Supercenter. But since she earns $7.85 an hour as a relatively new worker, she would fall $59 a week short of the national retail worker average.

Cameron worked 18 years at Sony and made $12 an hour when she was laid off.

She took business classes at a technical college after her time at Sony but had to quit and find a job when her husband was stricken with cancer. Cameron signed on at a Villa Rica plant that made camera and car parts and earned $11 an hour. But that job vanished when the factory relocated to Mexico. During this time, her family incurred large debts, so they tried to refinance their home of 16 years to stay afloat. That fell through, and they lost the home this year.

"It was devastating," she said. Cameron and her husband have an 8-year-old and two grown children. They have started over in a rental home. Buying another seems out of reach.

At the Wal-Mart menswear section, Cameron shows a sturdy and pleasant work habit honed over her years at the plant. She likes the steady flow of people and her co-workers.

"I love the job, but it's so underpaid," she said. She works the 2-11 p.m. shift and rarely gets two days off in a row. She can't get over the constant employee turnover.

"They can't keep people; I'm used to a job where people stay," said Cameron. "I'll have to make the best out of Wal-Mart. Life goes on. In all things bad, you have to look for the good."

'Who am I to fuss?'

Cameron's quest for a silver lining is almost a mantra for the former Sony employees. Five years ago, many workers believed Sony closed the plant to escape paying the aging workers' retirement benefits — a charge Sony management vigorously denied.

Many people still think that was a factor in the closing, but few seem to hold a grudge. Most look at it this way — they had a good ride for a while and were fortunate to have it.

"It's a shame [businesses] have to do what they need to succeed," said Mary Lou Smith, 61, with no hint of bitterness. "Labor is cheap in foreign countries. It's the price we pay for living in the U.S. It's a compromise. But who am I to fuss about it?"

Smith qualified for early retirement from Sony but postponed taking it because it was less than $400 a month. She went to school to become a certified nursing assistant and takes care of some elderly people in their home. She finds them by word of mouth, avoiding agencies and their cut.

Smith has arthritis in her hands and right shoulder. Several others recently spoke of having operations or therapy on their knees, hips, elbows and shoulders. Smith figures the daily repetition of 19 years on the job contributed to her pains. But then again, she said, "I don't blame Sony. No matter what job I might have had, I would have had some injury."

Marty Funderburk, who is 42, thinks the plant's cement floors, coupled with his 250-pound frame, did a number on his hips. Both have been replaced.

Funderburk was hired as a supervisor by the Wal-Mart warehouse facility that opened in Carrollton not long after the Sony plant closed.

The Wal-Mart facility was seen as a lifeline by the departing Sony workers. Funderburk said many were hired on, but he left after a couple of years.

"I didn't care for Wal-Mart," he said.

In 2003, he took a job at the Cleburne County, Ala., Sheriff's Department. He tried to get on as a patrol deputy, but his hips prevented him from passing the running test. He's now a correctional officer at the jail and supervisor of the reserves, which allows him to patrol.

Funderburk says his new job pays about $5 an hour less than the $15.30 he made at Sony. But he can deal with that, because he's found job satisfaction.

"You feel like you're making a difference," he said. His county, like countless other rural counties, has been ravaged by people strung out on methamphetamine.

He sees his mission as trying to reach out and help some of those he locks up. Talking to them with respect is a start. He hasn't seen many former Sony employees since the plant closed, but he laughingly adds that he has arrested a couple.

Funderburk enjoys the respect he is accorded in the job and jokes about his job security: "We have a lot of repeat customers."

The past five years has been a journey that has brought him to a satisfying destination in life.

"I love it. I look forward to it every day," Funderburk said. "If I knew 20 years ago what I know now, I'd have left Sony for law enforcement. Most people never found that ultimate job — something they love. I found that."

http://www.ajc.com/search/content/metro/stories/0326metsony_.html

[Holly W.]

The political backlash is coming. The phrases I've heard to describe George Bush from middle America are quite ugly.

But who are these people going to vote for, STR? We're now divided in a way such that social conservatives "have" to vote Republican even if they disagree with every economic policy the party has (and the same goes for the opposite as well). Maybe people don't like GWB much any more, but they'll still vote for a Republican in the next presidential election almost no matter what -- the only other option is just not voting. I'm not saying they should all switch to being Democrats; I'm just saying this kind of lock-in doesn't give GOP candidates any real incentive to divorce themselves from Grover Norquist/Cato Institute/Club for Growth type policies.

[Lord]

The education and training that is most needed is that which cannot be effectively and efficiently taught. It is the creative act, whether that of the individual as with the artist and scientist, or the coordinator as with the entrepreneur. In truth, it is not jobs we need but opportunities for wealth. Opportunities will become more irregular, temporary, and sporadic, but they will offer significant wealth in short periods that can provide future incomes. In a globalizing economy, jobs will only become worse, whether through offshoring or competition among those displaced by it. Seek wealth, not income.

[Winslow R.]

Lord wrote:

"In truth, it is not jobs we need but opportunities for wealth."

'We' as in you and me, may not need jobs, but I would argue 'we', as in we the people, need both jobs and opportunties.

Jobs help create opportunties. If not for the person working the job, at least opportunity for the person supplying that worker with goods and services.

To democratize access to income through a job for anyone that desires one creates a vibrant, broad economy full of opportunities for all types.

[anne]

Winslow, nicely done :) Lord, creativity in my experience just cannot be separated from education, though not necessarily formal education, but education always :)

[Lord]

Yes, but there will be no shortage of jobs. That is what all those 12 million illegals here do. It is what the mass of humanity in emerging markets do. But jobs will simply become a means of survival and subsistance. They will cease to be a means to what we call a middle class lifestyle.

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