Clinton Did It!

Dean Baker evaluates Bush's inference that Clinton is responsible, in part, for higher oil prices:

Beat the Press: Arctic Oil Nonsense, by Dean Baker:  ... President Bush claimed today that the country would be producing another million barrels of oil a day, if President Clinton had allowed drilling in the refuge. ... implying President Clinton’s opposition to drilling in the refuge is a major factor behind today’s high oil prices.

A few simple facts indicate otherwise. First, there is a world market for oil. What matters in determining the price of oil is how much oil is supplied in the world, not how much is supplied in the United States. ... One million barrels is less than 1.2 percent of world oil supply. That is not trivial, but it will not hugely affect the world price of oil.

The second point follows directly from the first. Iraq’s average oil output is approximately 1 million barrels a day less than it was before the war. ... the same amount that drilling in the refuge might have increased it.

The third point is that the oil in the Refuge is a temporary fix. According to the Energy Information Agency, it would take approximately 10 years to reach the peak production of 1 million barrels a day. This peak production would continue for approximately 10 years, and then it would trail back down to zero over roughly 10 years. This means that if we had begun drilling in the Refuge the day Clinton took office in 1993, then we would have hit peak production just over three years ago, and we would begin to see a decline in output beginning in 2013. This is not exactly long-term energy security.

Of course, there is plenty that Clinton can be blamed for regarding energy policy. For example, if he had introduced mileage standards that increased average mileage by just 10 percent, this would save the country 1 million barrels a day of oil consumption ...

The NY Times also comments on the president's remarks:

How Not to Cure an Addiction, Editorial, NY Times: During his State of the Union speech last January, President Bush correctly diagnosed America's oil consumption as an addiction. Unfortunately, Mr. Bush is balking at taking the steps to cure the abuse.

Yesterday, the president told an audience ... that he would try to lower gasoline prices by increasing the supply of oil ... His plan is to refrain from topping off the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but it ... is nearly full already, so skipping a few deposits won't appreciably affect supply or prices. ...

Mr. Bush's other recommendations were similarly off point. For instance, he acknowledged that higher prices reflected global demand. But he offered no strategy to combat demand-driven price rises. The obvious solution, to increase fuel efficiency standards for ordinary cars, was not mentioned. ...

The president made no mention of the Iraq war, which pushes up prices by reinforcing the market's anxiety over political upheaval in oil-producing areas. But he did make another pitch for drilling in protected Alaskan wilderness.

The alternative energy technologies Mr. Bush emphasized — biofuels, hybrids, hydrogen power — are important and promising. What's missing is a plan to get us from here to there...

Finally, The Wall Street Journal adds:

Despite critics' dismissal of the White House moves, the actions -- particularly relaxing clean-fuel standards -- could affect prices, oil analysts said...

Update: Maybe Dean Baker had an impact:

TPM: TPM Reader: TPM Reader PON finds this exchange from White House National Economic Council Director Al Hubbard's briefing yesterday on the president's 'Four Point Energy Plan' ...

Q Just to follow up, though, on one element of that point. The President made the point that had ANWR been approved ten years ago, you'd get about a million barrels a day. Had the Iraq production resumed to the level that had been projected before the war, how much would that contribute today?
DIRECTOR HUBBARD: I actually don't know the precise answer to that. What's really most important, though, is that we've become less reliable on overseas sources of crude oil and other sources of energy, and more reliant on energy from within our 50 states [sic].

Q You have no estimate, though, about what Iraqi production could be?
DIRECTOR HUBBARD: I do not have it.
MR. HENNESSEY: We can get back to you. DIRECTOR HUBBARD: Yes, we can get back to you with that, or --

Q That would be useful. I mean, just -- obviously, since the President has chosen one interesting example in ANWR, the Iraq one would be an interesting one to compare it to, whether that would be more or less than a billion -- a million a day.
DIRECTOR HUBBARD: Yes, we will have to get back to you on that.

Can I get back to you on that? Can I leave now?