Will the Euro Replace the Dollar?

Will the Euro Replace the Dollar as the currency of choice for world financial transactions? NYU's William Silber says perhaps, but it is unlikely to happen anytime soon:

Will the dollar lose its crown to the euro?, by William L. Silber, Project Syndicate: Much of America's dominance in world finance comes from the dollar's status as international money. ... But American spending habits have undermined the dollar's reputation, with the excess supply of dollars on world markets depressing its price.

This spring, the euro's exchange rate against the dollar reached an all-time high, and central banks have increased the euro share of their international reserves. Is the dollar about to lose the crown of world finance to the euro? History suggests otherwise...

American financial supremacy in the 21st century resembles Britain's position ... a century ago. Before the outbreak of World War I in August 1914, the pound sterling served as the currency of choice for international transactions...

John Maynard Keynes worried that countries would not use sterling to settle trading balances with each other if the pound were not viewed as a reliable store of value. ... Britain maintained the pound's convertibility into gold at the outbreak of World War I to preserve its credibility as the international medium of exchange.

The dollar could not challenge sterling's role as the world's currency without matching its reputation. August 1914 provided the opportunity. The biggest gold outflow in a generation imperiled America's ability to repay its debts abroad. Fear that the U.S. would abandon the gold standard sent the dollar plummeting on world markets.

But Treasury Secretary William G. McAdoo secured American financial honor in August 1914 by remaining true to gold while everyone else, except for the British, abandoned their obligations. Despite the dollar's instant credibility, however, it took more than a decade for America's currency to match Britain's as an international medium of exchange. Payment habits melt at a glacier's pace.

Britain's transformation from international creditor to international debtor during World War I gave the dollar a second wind in its battle with sterling. The British were forced to abandon gold convertibility in April 1919... Six years later ... Britain ... returned to the gold standard. But the pound had already suffered irreparable damage.

The experience of 1914 implies that a credible alternative can replace an entrenched world currency, especially after an unfavorable balance of trade has weakened it. But even then, dethroning the reigning king of international exchange takes time.

Today, the euro — a currency without a country — lacks a long track record of credibility. Thirteen countries in the European Union use the euro... But the commitment of these independent political entities to the euro cannot match the history of America's commitment to the dollar.

The European Central Bank, established in 1998, has a mandate ... to maintain price stability. But the ECB needs time to establish its inflation-fighting credentials. It cannot hitch a ride on gold, the way America did a century ago. So the euro must earn its reputation crisis by crisis...

Recent experience with the euro as an official reserve asset is instructive. Between 2000 and 2005, the dollar lost more than 25 percent of its value against the euro. Meanwhile, the fraction of international reserves held in euros grew from 18 percent to 24 percent, and the dollar's share dropped from 71 percent to 66 percent. In short, the euro has clearly made some headway during this period of U.S. balance of payment deficits, but this reflects an evolutionary decline in the dollar's dominance, not a revolutionary regime shift.

What might trigger a fatal run on the dollar in world markets? While a broad and abrupt selloff by major foreign holders of dollars — for example, China — appears unlikely, a cataclysmic event, similar to the outbreak of World War I in 1914, could prompt a search for a new international medium of exchange. In the modern era of automated payments, the upheaval might come from a terrorist attack that undermines the computerized transfer facilities of the world's banking system. A catastrophic loss of electronic records could surely destroy the credibility of the dollar as the international medium of exchange.

But exactly what would replace the dollar under such circumstances remains an open question. After all, a loss of computer records would make the euro equally suspect. Perhaps gold, a store of value impervious to physical distortion, could make a comeback. Of course, one can only hope that such a scenario remains pure conjecture.

Comments

[Bruce Wilder]

I doubt that trust, per se, is the underlying driver. I suspect the volume of key international transactions is the major driver, and was before 1914 as well.

Today, without gold as an intermediary redemption vehicle, dollars are effectively backed by transactions volume, first, and American real estate and corporate businesses, second.

As the dollar does collapse, excess reserves will return to the U.S. in asset purchases. The resulting inflation, or other financial unpleasantness, could well prove to be self-reinforcing.

Rising commodity prices -- oil, minerals and agriculture -- are going to make forcing an American dollar inflation look increasingly attractive to China, Japan, Korea and Europe; forcing the Euro-starved Americans out of the oil markets, alone, would have substantial benefits for people, who have mountains of dollars accumulated. Owning Coca-Cola, Alabama and whatever is left of General Motors will just be bonuses.

[Oupoot]

It will inevitably happen. But it may not be that the € replace the $. In the risky environment of international finance where there is little back-up to a currency and currencies are build on trust, it may prove to be a basket of currencies. Other big currencies in future (though it will take a long time) could be the Indian Roeppee and the Chinese Yuan, whenever they become tradable and held for asset purposes (storing value).

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Dollar? Where is it? I just saw it took a swing up down up down. I would not venture in the Dollar if this is not united even amongst the 51 states of America. Here is what I mean. Al Gore talks of global warming. Arni speaks of the Global warming. Mr. Bush, the president keeps quite. So if there is no parity in the states about the currency how will it fight the combined Euro?
Mind you and the dollar is on decline as per recent records. China and India are making the push so hard that the American currency will go down to the level not known. Pound is strong .Right? The country is small? Right? USA is big? Right? Compared to UK pound today 6th July it is small. Right? Who talk of dollar growing up? In fact it is dipping. Too much is required by the Iraq war.

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

When the politicians play the game of cat and mouse the currency gets the hiccup.

Campbell reveals depth of Blair's feud with Brown
Alastair Campbell has lifted the lid on the feuding between Gordon Brown and Tony Blair which has been a running sore for Labour since 1994.
The former Downing Street director of communications, who said he had omitted their disagreements from his diairies to avoid handing a "gold-mine" of ammunition to the Tories, included several examples of the destabilising power struggle between New Labour's main architects.
Put simply Mr. Blaire was thorn in the wheel of the usurping of the oil as was robin cook. . Colin Powell on 9th admitted that the USA ought not to go to war. However the democracy call was a fake one.
What has been the result? Russia, North Korea, China, India, Iran know that American president is plying with the game that he thinks he understands. Page 45 of the book Power to the people clearly states how the big Powers broke the backbones of the poor countries and how they put the spokes in the economics of these countries that would keep on bagging for aid.
What we have is the purest form of hypocrisy.
Tell the person to steal and tell the Police who is going to steal where and when. This I must have mentioned many a times about the lying politicians.
They seem to win.
What is the position of the Great Britain? It is a puppet unless Mr. Brown wakes to the call that there is no help coming from any country and that he ought to stick with EU.
EURO is gaining and the dollars has to come no matter what the pundits predict.
There is so much that must be done in a civilized barbarism like war.
Amelia Earhart

I thank you.

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Fábio List]

Do eurozone needs a "revolutionary regime shift"? If euro persists gaining weight in central banks' international reserves, eventually it will become an international money.

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Sir. Does this give you an idea of the Dollar that is trying to rely on oil?????

U.S. Officials Voice Frustrations With Saudis’ Role in Iraq
By HELENE COOPER
This article was reported by Helene Cooper, Mark Mazzetti and Jim Rutenberg, and written by Ms. Cooper.
Sir. The idea is simple. I re wrote this again and again. I am a Muslim and I have been to the Muslim countries. Jordan, Syria, UAE, Bahrain, Muscat, Doha, Kuwait, Egypt and what you call the Gulf Sates do not mix well. The reason is simple.
They want the power to stay within the hands of the monarchy of Emirs. There is no democracy except I see that Dubai is a metropolitan city and has more to offer is "Have your say then other".
The monarch or the kings do not want the power or the coins to go to the public but pseudo democracy reigns in Iran too.
Now with this, can you expect seriously any help from Osama’s birth place?

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

'Yo, Brown!': PM arrives for first talks with Bush

Gordon Brown tried to "move on" from the disaster in Iraq as he held his first meeting last night with US President George Bush since becoming Prime Minister.
There was a time when The EURO was low, and then the Iraq war broke out. YO Blaire fell lowered Mr. Blaire to such a level that the EURO started the pace upwards as the Great Britain was losing the grip with the USA and others because of the war that was not there. Now here we have the different story.
Walk in Mr. Brown in the TEN Downing Street and tell the world he will not go all the way to join Bush .The limit is the hip. That too gives the EURO a lift.
Here comes the worst part.
UK has flood. The plumbers etc or the ministries etc who had helped siphoned the water gets paid more and Brown helplessly looks for any friend. Lo here it is the long lost friend. Mr. Bush. So here he goes not for friendship no sir, it is money to boost his kitty. The floods were never so big before the 1940.Now UK drowns Brown seeks the US dollar.
May be the dollar will be physiologically lift the dollar, it is just a guess as the East Markets had a big fall on Friday 27th and 28th July 2007.
May be the Dollar will be darting up by the visit of Mr. Brown, but the currency that has fallen once is very difficult to go up again against the united EU.
I doubt this but let us wait what sort of package Mr. Brown brings with him from Mr. Bush. Time will tell but dollar up, no way for now.
I thank you

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Mr. Brown went to USA to see Mr. Bush. The talk was very friendly and more funds are to be allocated to the poor. This I heard from years but Sudan is still dying and Africa is going down the tube. Zimbabwe has come with the new currency of 100.000 Zimbabwe Kwacha to buy one loaf of bread as there is no food. No this meeting of the two great leader is very encouraging if the poor really get the shares. But the problem is African countries are not united. They talk of East African countries as EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY when in reality there is no community. A wrong word used and the NGOs directors or the World Bank manger comes to say Tanzania is on the track. What is the track even we as Tanzanian do not know?
So when do we see the Dollar go up. There was no mention of Iraq war. That was / is the main issue that is siphoning the monetary of all the countries. We see more blood then the dollar coming up.
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A Mulla MBA PhD]

Sir

It certainly does not sound very good in Tanzanian East Africa. When I read the books on “The Death of Economics: Books: by Paul Ormerod ... all the ego driven, engineering models, that bore people to death of economics. ... Death of Economics , Shopped: The Shocking Power of British Supermarkets: by Joanna Blythman ... 'Shopped' takes the reader on a lively, thought ... Shopped, the super pier of the supermarkets , The World is Flat Thomas L. Friedman Chances are good that Bhavya in Bangalore will read your next x-ray, or as Thomas Friedman learned first hand, "Grandma Betty in The imaginative and, above all, practical vision for a successful and equitable world, Nobel Prize winner Joseph E. Stiglitz’s Making Globalization Work , I see all the controversies diluted .
Let me elaborate.
The authors have written these books having the rich countries in mind. They do understand that the poor countries do not count as the super power makes the coins roll. Hence they have always harped on the poor countries as the third grade states and never giving any remedies to these countries. The result is now in Tanzania where this letter comes from, The central, Bank Of Tanzania, wants to Commercial banks to deposits of one trillion into the BoT
In other term the central bank has no liquidity and begs the commercial bank. This is reported in the local papers CITIZEN ISSN 0856-9754 no 908
A local paper managed by the Nation Media of Kenya.

I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Today Sir

Today Monday, August 27, 2007 the NASDAQ and Dow Jones have lifted a little hope on Friday but the Iraqi war is certainly a question sir that does allow the breather. The friendly war, Allah and Rama and the creator know s what this is, but the friendly war on Friday killed many in Afghanistan. English soldiers died or got shot by the American. Their friend in “Friendly fight”, this I must say is unbelievable battle to go one. And the economics will not come up if this carries on. Friendly you call this??? Thus, there were times that the dress or the uniform told that this was a Yankee and this was Brit. Now in the desert we camouflage so much that we do not know our brother from the sisters???

I thank you

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Sir
A very sharp caustic and sarcastic memo at that too.

What exactly is the matter with humans after Darwin tried to prove that we are from apes and we rejected this?

Now the politics come harping about the shaking hands of the Capitalist and democrats.

Let me in please.

The way I see democracy is all have the right to say what is tolerable to tell, listen, follow and abide to make this planet a peaceful one. When autocracy seeps in or when anarchy comes in we have in other pseudo democracy that some countries favour.

May I elaborate?

The Arab land is autonomous. Kingship, monarchy, and Sheikhdom and Emirs. The family politics.

China was communist a pseudo name for, I think the world was misled as not religious and rebellious. We have India therein we have a president but the Prime minister does all the politicking and economics. We have Denmark a kingdom but hardly hear much about this at all. Pakistan is the right one on the target, a democracy but in the clutches of the army and the populace wanting to be free from the colons, lieutenants and majors.
We have the African continent riled with the so called democracy where one cannot say what he has in his head and the parties fight the policies in the paper but there is no follow up of by nature. Lazy and graft.
The African Union cannot transpire to make the ONE AFRICA as the countries are so shatters in their one feud that they do not care about the neighbors. DRC, Darfur, Somali, and the sub Sahara countries are dying according to the Foreign Policy paper published in the USA. These are still titled democratic. Madagascar, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and Sierra Leon are near the French policy and economic. The Egypt and Tunisia, Morocco, Algiers, Libya and The horn of Africa are still in the Arab lands with the culture of Arabs. And this will stay on.
KSA Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Muscat, Bahrain, Qatar is the Arab families’ countries have little democracy but we are told these too have democratic policies.
So what is Capitalism and democracy: friends or foes?
Sir

Today Monday, August 27, 2007 the NASDAQ and Dow Jones have lifted a little hope on Friday but the Iraqi war is certainly a question sir that does allow the breather. The friendly war, Allah and Rama and the creator know s what this is, but the friendly war on Friday killed many in Afghanistan. English soldiers died or got shot by the American. Their friend in “Friendly fight”, this I must say is unbelievable battle to go one. And the economics will not come up if this carries on. Friendly you call this??? Thus, there were times that the dress or the uniform told that this was a Yankee and this was Brit. Now in the desert we camouflage so much that we do not know our brother from the sisters???

I thank you

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali a Mulla MBA PhD]

Wall St.: Thanks Bernanke, Bush
Major gauges rise after Fed chief says bank will act as needed, President announces plan to help homeowners.
I think the thank you is coming too soon.
Barclays had/has asked for a bumper loan from Bank of England.
Now does that tell me that the currency and CPI is fair at the level we need or is this just another assurance by the Bush team?
I think so. Iraq war has got the American and UK economy at the lowest ebb. So why are we not stating this and talking of the economy still solid. All know we are sinking bad.

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Sir
On Monday 3rd 2007 British Troops withdraw from Basra city and President Bush visits the area with the Minister of Defence of the USA and Secretaey of States Condoldeca Rice to visit Iraq and pamper the solidiers to keep on staying in Iraq,. I think never in history of the Amearical aliy with the British has there been a slap to the American super Power then now by Mr. Brown the prime minister of England.
Is this the real or the imaginatery stat of me me me I am all ego by USA goes ashore or gone with the wind or wet sand seeping through the fingers?
Never ever have the Arabs cheerd loudl but in silence no then today. Gone is the blow , Make Middle East Democaritic.

I thank you

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa.

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

First the credit crunch... now the spending squeeze
Shoppers spurn the high street as higher rates bite
This is what the papers of 13th Omenn day state. Sir. The dollar is at the lowest today and the USA economy is shrinking as the Russia, India China are tightening the belts to give the best of the ISO standard like products and become like Korea. My comment is simply. Bush made a tragic mistake taking Iraq lightly. Now the tax payer have paid are sweating and when I saw the 9/11 ceremony, the public had two ideas sad sad sad.
1 The ground Zero has covered the dead so they are lost for-ever.
2. There are still some who have relatives in Iraq trying to survive.
Now where does dollar stay in the heads of already perturbed heads? Not in the wallet, not in the banks as the mortgage is ..HOUSES FOR SALE .. All over the place and Katrina still not a resident place.
Sir I see dollar deep like it had never dipped. What is more the EURO is so stubborn against the English policy of meter that we may come back to pound, oz, miles, and inches.
That is EURO strength. If EU flexes muscles USA is as good as a suiting duck.

I thank you

Firozali A.Mulla
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Sir

On Friday the partner country of America was having the toughest time in the ever friendship that was since years. Here it is. The North Rock bank, the property bank had a huge quies from 6am to 2.pm and there were frustrated customers to withdraw the cash as the bank seemed to be sinking with the property market. Some one said that this was not a problem, just the panic. But if I were there I would do the same. After all it is my savings of the years.
Now let us look at exactly what happened.
The American dollar slipped and had the world gasping for the more cash. You see the cash that was is now stashed in the farced it had created by Colin Powel, Tony Blaire and company. Tony has left asking Bush to hold the baby of the bleeding economy that too is sagging.
The dollar is at the lowest ebb on 16th September 2007 against all currency. What is more there is a demo in the Washington about the war in Iraq. Now if I see this in the TV. I have many thoughts running in my mind. What is happening to the strong dollar that dominated the world? The Senate is upset and the majors of the wars who are more experienced then the president state," We are draining our money and men if we continue. Look buddy we still have Katrina and others to settle down in their residents, we have SEC not doing too good a job, Afghanistan soldiers as per SKY TV seem to be having very bad time and what is more they seem to be corrupted. The idea is to stay on in Afghanistan and get rich by the Poppy crop and teach as less as possible to the Afghan soldiers."
Sir with this how can dollar see the silver lining. In fact WASHINGTON, Sept. 14 — Alan Greenspan, who was chairman of the Federal Reserve for nearly two decades, in a long-awaited memoir, is harshly critical of President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and the Republican-controlled Congress, as abandoning their party’s principles on spending and deficits.

Sir I am but a small fry when the giants talk. I thank you.

Firozali A. Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa.

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Here goes the dollar and the pound The monetary system is hopeless mess. read on. Is this the Bank, lawyer,Ceo,Cfo, Chairman

Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Sir:
I am amazed that the article even after the Northern Rock in UK sees the holes in the banking financial system. It is believed that The Bank of England will or may help but by the same token, I see TV that there are three banks involved. One is The Northern Rock.
Coming to the lawyers in this issue, where they not prudent enough of the banking system or did they study the macro and micro economics,
In fact when the banks or the corporation fail, it is not just the chairman, nit the CFO,CEO but the auditors and the lawyers misguiding the operators of the money machinery.
If I want to order some foods for example, the layer will look at the implication of what the SEC or FASBE think, leaving the buying, selling, stocking and selling aside. The Auditors come later to sling all sorts of words in the beautiful report with note addendum.
I think the lawyers should be the first ones to look at the Articles and Memorandum and if the company is really structured to meet the developing business. Some lawyer would simply have photocopies of the Table A, Articles and Memorandum one that fits all gloves.
This is the greatest mistake that forces the limited company later.
Then the shares holders come in with the registered as 100 shares and the subscribes shares are or will be 4 or 5 only. The law goes haywire till the banks liquidity is some manner that the customers have to wait to draw out the cash fro 6,00am till they are told to come next day.
I think this is the lawyer work from stage one.
I thank you.
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa.

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Sir .There is few discussions before we look at the number crunching or the morals.
The Iran threatened to fire missile at Israel if Israel provoked Iran. Now it so happens that Iraq is a gone case and Iran has interest in Iraq ruling this. The best chip on the table then followed by the Alan Greenspan talking of the WAR WAS FOR OIL and there are comments about the book that Alan wants to sell. The arguments stand and I stand with this. Why he did not do the homework when he was in the Fed. Dr. Bernanake has inherited the hottest seat I can remember. Arabs are fighting. USA want Iraq base and Saudi has agreed to clear the Taliban but Saudi keep the Wahabis, Nawaz Sharrif in the country.
It adds up to one fiaco.
The Arabs especially Saudi think if USA cannot get oil, let us hike the price, but this is a fallacy. The fight is still on for the fuel and the making the use of the biofuels faster as even Americans now realize that they cannot depend on the Saudi who are opportunists.
I thank you

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Fed had to cut the rate to increse the CPI therfore dollar is down anyway.The true value is lowest since 2006

Sir .There is few discussions before we look at the number crunching or the morals.
The Iran threatened to fire missile at Israel if Israel provoked Iran. Now it so happens that Iraq is a gone case and Iran has interest in Iraq ruling this. The best chip on the table then followed by the Alan Greenspan talking of the WAR WAS FOR OIL and there are comments about the book that Alan wants to sell. The arguments stand and I stand with this. Why he did not do the homework when he was in the Fed. Dr. Bernanake has inherited the hottest seat I can remember. Arabs are fighting. USA want Iraq base and Saudi has agreed to clear the Taliban but Saudi keep the Wahabis, Nawaz Sharrif in the country.
It adds up to one fiaco.
The Arabs especially Saudi think if USA cannot get oil, let us hike the price, but this is a fallacy. The fight is still on for the fuel and the making the use of the biofuels faster as even Americans now realize that they cannot depend on the Saudi who are opportunists.
I thank you

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Ben Dover]

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD ..the "PhD" must stand for "Phony Doctor".

[Firozali A. Mulla MBA PhD]

Ben Dover says... Ban Thank you. I do not mind at all when I post a comment and spell out my name with address. The reason is simple. Her today Friday 21September Bush starts talking about veto on school funding while the funds fro the Iraq war are stopped. What is more the US dollar is equal to Canadian dollar first time since 1976 hear 1976
The dollar is so week that the ECONOMIST magazine say that Fed will have to go to 5% inters if Fed is to sort out the economy that is in mess. Guess there are guys like you who do not understand the globalization and oil that is driving all nuts. What is more the news says that Saudi will lose as it is pegged to the US Dollar and the imports and exports will reduce the real value of the dollar. Now that is the picture friend. It is the bitter I know but there it is the dollars is sinking friend. Can you save this? What is more Alan Greenspan made boo boo by writing the book that is now being criticized by many? They say Alan wants to make money.
Dollar is sunken buddy.
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

The state of Britain
Today Saturday, September 22, 2007 sir, I see the Northern Rock mortgage bank’s rank shares sliding I had never seen in the Britain History.
The fault us not the Bank of England, it is just that the loans were given out and no chasing of the payback was made. I cannot think of any bank deferring in this manner and shout,” Wolf”, at the last minute.
I am sad that this had to happen. Is this the England that taught me the Big Five that were and created many?

The way I would read the above is, “Is this inherited from the previous politicians who always want to have their say in finance and politics.
I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

This is one reason why the veto and the super powers putting their fingers in the foreign policies that rolls the dollar down. The houses are for sale everywhere and the dollar is losing the value. In fact because of the Dollars even the UK market is shaky but the time difference is the advantage to the British Pound.
EU warns against military crackdown in Burma
26.09.2007 - 09:26
Sir
I simply fail to understand the stance of the EU in everything any country does. For example here in Burma we have the march and the scuffle between the marchers and the police who beat up the people.
Burma is an independent policy. Why does US or UK force the EU to take action on Burma’s governments?
We scream about the democracy but then we put our foot into the rulings of the constitution of other countries? Let me go further. If India has a problem in the country or if the USA dollar sinking as is, will EU step in or EU only steps in where the country is poor?
If England has a problem in balancing the bank books what does that have to do with the other countries or for that matter great 8 etc?
I thank you.
Firozali A. Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

The trouble with democracy, September 8th

A losing battle sir:
When I think of democracy I see the people view the constitutions and their rights of voting and their say in anything they would like to have the say including the politicians’ views and the economics views.
Also I see VETO in many places that stops me thinking.
What is veto? A force by someone to make me think that I am wrong that not needed. The other party's views are right or they have to be right.
This is going three steps up and falling two down, sir.
I see no democracy working in full steam.

That is where dollar slips.
The Latinos and the Blacks according to the papers of State say the houses are so down, the value that these will take years to recover. In the mean time the US Dollar stays low very low. If the people have lost faith the banking and the politicians’ lies, sir, the monetary system is bad.

I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Sir
I happened to have the BusinessWeek the publication of McGraw-Hill Corporation. This is of 2002 and the heading reads "Who are the Best CEOs, or do we have good CEOs. And there is a clear vision on the housing and the dollar collapse. Watch out for the exact date of this publication as I do not have this at the moment. Sunday 30th Sept 2007
Now if the Economist and the good economical magazines state that USA will have a very different time (in 2002) then we see the diluting dollar now and the credit squeeze so tight that the banks do not trust banks.
I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Monday, October 01, 2007
Sir
This is the addendum of yesterday’s post
The BusinessWeek is of September 23, 2006. The headline of the cover pages states The Good CEO
Then there is the last page that states The US can’t do it alone Mr. Bush

The U. S. Market: Is there a Bond Bubble
The article is so correct and the war of Iraq described so apt that it must have been done by the best astrologer.
Finance: Europe’s Insurance Meltdown, Germany: Is Stoiber a real reformer BMW

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Sir
America has the wound that needs heeling. Alan Greenspan had stated in September 2005 before he left the office (Stated in the Financial Times that the newcomer, Dr. Bernanke will have e tough time on the banking and the assets.
Now that we are seeing this and ,"Yo Blaire " no more by the side or for that matter English withdrawing the troops, the Afghanistan not trusting the USA at all, Saudi sinking deeper in economy and hence dragging the America with Saudi, I think there is no chance of any attack. China is gearing to go to the Moon and so is Japan. With the dismal news of the Blackwater and Rice doing nothing, there is no plan at time of the strategy to attack Iran. What is more Iran is not a weak county it was. There are other issues that Mr. Bush has on his lap to settle like the global warming. He signs part.
The Trade wars and many are still hanging. Mr. Bush going out. Do you seriously thin, like Colin Powel who left and denied about the WMD, Mr. Bush would like to leave the office leaving the bitter test of the American president.
As is there have been many stories about the USA presidents. Do we need to add more on the bad portfolio about the American heritage?
I doubt if Mr. Bush is wise to think about this. Not till Hillary come I see no war. Hillary does not want war. So why on earth Bush may plan a war on exit
I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Today
25th October I see the dollar dwindling in circles. There is no chance the dollar will come up now as the Far Eastern economies are bettering the American dollar not just on the currency field, but the skies see the Chinese and Russian satellites after many year . Do not know if we are back to the era of Mao kike years but the dollar is definitely out for some time.
Seems bad but that is the fact American will have to live with. I think the downfall was mostly because of the Iraq war and no oil or no WMD. The oil has shot up to 90 but this should not worry the consumers. The reason is simple. We are talking of the CPI. This means what one commentator has said, American can spend a lot. The purchasing power therefore denotes the GDP or NDP. Oil at 100 also is cheap( although at this time all eyes are on Iraq and turkey borders, I guess this is a political maneuver too), and the fires in California have shifted all eyes not on oil but the growing China and India and the Iran shaking hands with Putin who agrees that Iran can have the nuke facilities.
This put the GDP off the scoreboard for now. WE are looking at the CPI and the money I have to spend at this time. Do I have enough, then why do I to worry about the GDP. What is more the globalization state we are a small village. Therefore, I can safely look at the other places not particularly mine and leave the GDP totally off my life

I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PHD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Friday, October 26, 2007
Dollar sees the record drop. Am I surprised? The reason is simple. There is less cash in the kitty. There was a lot of money in the Central Bank but come the false alarms of the WMD and the Katrina typhoon and now the California fires, Bush administration has hands full of the tasks to fulfill. Thee Turkey threaten to attack Iraq upsetting the armory if America in Turkey that is kept to se Russia and China , India and Iran do not play with the nuke toys.
The amount must be staggering. I guess the dollar had to go done and it sliding fast, the slop is irritating and gloomy

The dollar slipped to record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies Friday as investors, faced with a run of weak U.S. economic data, anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.

I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Monday, October 29, 2007
Weak dollar falls against euro
The US dollar has fallen to a new record low against the euro in Asia. The euro hit 1.4426 dollars in early Asian trading, breaking the 1.44 level for the first time since the single European currency's creation in 1999. The euro was trading at 1.4407-10 dollars in the morning in Tokyo, against 1.4391 dollars in New York late Friday. Worries about the slowing US economy, especially its housing market, are weighing on the US currency.
Is that not eneough totell amny that Dr Bernanke is trying his best by keeping the rates low but Dollar just is not required in the economies today.

I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Sir. Wednesday, October 31, 2007 paper state the dollar I see over valued Published: October 22 2007 20:09 | Last updated: October 22 2007 20:09
When the Chinese economy is booming w e shout fowl and state with terse word, Chinese money is over valued, China must do something<’ Sir , looks like the ball in our coat now. Let us face it. The complete monetary system is in chaos because of the overvalued dollar. The way I read this is, we do not have that much cash we drum about it.

I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

The above apeares in the Financial Times UK

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

The above appears in the Financial Times UK
regret the power hiccups in Tanzania

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Dollar falls to fresh lows
By Peter Garnham
Published: November 6 2007 11:03 | Last updated: November 6 2007 11:03

I may be wrong in the financial figures but this from the UK papers and very substantial report. Well there you are. The dollar is very low today Tuesday, November 06, 2007
I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla
P, O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A. Mulla MBA PhD]

23rd November,2007 just before the Thanks giving day. No I do not want to spoil your holiday or the Turkey. Please have fun. We will talk of this on Monday when the Dollar will be still low and oil is nearly 100dpb
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzaia
East Africa

[anne]

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD:

"When the Chinese economy is booming we shout fowl and state with terse word, Chinese money is over valued, China must do something<’ Sir, looks like the ball in our court now. Let us face it. The complete monetary system is in chaos because of the overvalued dollar."

I enjoyed this.

[Firozali A Mulla MBA PhD]

Is Britain's economy heading for the perfect storm?

Sir
This what the English newspaper states on 5th December 2007
Is this not enough with the NASDEQ unch and Dow Jones - 65.84, S&P unch at respectively

I thank you
Firozali A Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A Mulla MBA PhD]

The Bush Era gave; I use the same words as the TV, of 1.3 billion American dollars, subject to the congress, to be given to the taxpayers. This is about 1,500+ American Dollars to each taxpayer to boost the economy that is very low. The other side of the coin albeit is, the economist recommend, “Please spend on the American Product soothe money stays in USA” The Chinese seem to be everywhere and may take a chunk out of these in the form of toys and America still will bleed
This is on 19th January 2008-
I thank you
Firozali A Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania

[Firozali A Mulla MBA PhD]

US politics trumping economics, or vice versa?
Weak data force bank to take bold approach

Sir:
If there is policy it belongs to the US. If the DAVOS turns into quagmire of politic issue and monetary issue of the felled markets of the world, the primary cause is US. How can you state otherwise? There is no vice versa. It is US and all know of this.
I thank you
Firozali A Mulla MBA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
East Africa

[Firozali A. Mulla]

Who is the elephant and who is the ant?
Firstly, I read this sentence and had to think up of what elephant was in the room. No one asked President Barack Obama directly about the elephant in the room on Wednesday. I guess this was the meeting to find out the elephant and the ant. The public showed this to us in demonstrating. But he brought it up anyway, during a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. A British reporter asked Obama about the proper size of government stimulus spending, and the U.S. President decided to talk about the perilous balance of global trade. We have none now as the USA deals extensively with this trade issue. USA stops buying and boycotts some, the ones who are out de a slow death begging for aids. Here Mr. Obama is very clear about the power USA.
"In some ways, the world has become accustomed to the United States being a voracious consumer market and the engine that drives a lot of economic growth worldwide," Obama said, hinting that this position may not be sustainable. "We're going to have to take into account a whole host of factors that can increase our savings rate and start dealing with our long-term fiscal position as well as our current account deficits."
Now comes the issue of revealing the truth as it ought to be.
Doggedly optimistic in the face of doubts, President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown predicted Thursday's emergency G-20 economic summit would produce a significant global deal to tackle the deepening worldwide recession. Sarkozy and the German is clear and we see this in the net and TV. The words are harsher then ever before. Sounds like we have the 1930 coming back and staying with us. Read on.
Others weren't so sure.
France warned on Wednesday that neither it nor Germany would agree to "false compromises" that soft-pedal a need for tougher financial regulation to curb abuses that contributed to the spreading chaos. And outside the carefully scripted meetings, protesters smashed bank windows and pelted police with eggs and fruit.
Now we talk of any deals. The British Police and the public take the hammering in their own home grounds and USA states that USA is the biggest partner in trade. Does USA pay for the blood of the deaths on the London streets? I wonder. The above reads as the visit of Obama as the trade only talk and no more. IF ONLY the rest of the world were run like China, the global financial crisis would be over much sooner. The World Bank predicts 6.5% growth. Even Mr Zhou sounded a note of caution. Asked whether China’s economic slowdown had ended he told reporters on March 28th, during a visit to Colombia, that it was “still uncertain”. The answer, he said, depended on whether the global financial crisis had yet “reached bottom”.
I thank you
Firozali A. Mulla