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Dec 07, 2007

"Its not True"

I think this is a good sign. Do tax cuts pay for themselves?:

Washington Post: Mr. Giuliani and the Tax Fairy. Editorial "...It's not true..."

Time: Tax Cuts Don't Boost Revenues, by Justin Fox ..."these claims are false..."

Now, will the press make the connection between the willingness to make these claims and character? Those who say this are either making claims they know are false, or have economic advisors who don't know what they are talking about. In any case, whether its the willingness to mislead to promote an idea, or the incompetence in choosing advisors and the unwillingness to consider evidence at odds with their preconceived notions, it's worth noting. My own view is that their economic advisors know what the evidence really says, and the candidates are choosing to ignore what they are told. But a simple question, "Have your economic advisors informed you that there's no basis for that claim, and if so, why are you making it anyway" or something like that, would tell us the answer. It's not as though this is unimportant, the difference between the claim that the most recent tax cuts are self-financing and the actual evidence is hundreds of billions of dollars and it would seem that with so much at stake, we would hear more about those who mislead us about the true cost of the policies they advocate.

Update: I take back praise of Justin Fox and Time, it's undeserved. Justin introduces his article on his blog by saying "Some tax cuts do raise revenues, of course."

Update: Here's the Boston Globe on John McCain:

Straight shooter, wacky tax idea "Alluring as such a theory may be, it's not true."

That's more like it.

Update: Quite a bit more from Brad DeLong here on the Time and Washington Post pieces - his take is more generous than mine in some ways (see the update at the end), less so in others (comments on Washington Post).

    Posted by Mark Thoma on Friday, December 7, 2007 at 09:00 AM in Budget Deficit, Economics, Politics, Taxes | Permalink | TrackBack (0) | Comments (29)



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    howard says...

    no, there's only a connection to character if the press pretends that you claim to have invented the internet: at that stage you must be pathological.

    but lying in the service of gop doctrine: as joe klein tells us, this stuff is complicated and no one has the time to figure out who's right and wrong (that's a joke, folks).

    Posted by: howard | Link to comment | Dec 07, 2007 at 09:11 AM

    hari says...

    The general public is being taken for a ride in this pre-election period by the politicians.

    Who is going to protect the public interest?

    Posted by: hari | Link to comment | Dec 07, 2007 at 09:18 AM

    Cyrille says...

    Well, even in the Time article, I think they are a little light about Laffer. In essence, they are saying that some tax cuts almost paid for themselves because the rich no longer bothered to cheat.

    OK. So it's nothing about economics. It's about enforcement.

    It also merely states that noone thought we could be to the right of the Laffer peak -but there is no evidence that there is such a peak. Yes there are diminishing returns, but no evidence that the returns ever get negative.

    Posted by: Cyrille | Link to comment | Dec 07, 2007 at 09:45 AM

    Bruce Wilder says...

    When does a mistake become a lie?

    When does the teller of a false tale become a liar?

    It is not the fact check that journalists shy away from, so much as the moral implications, which follow.

    Posted by: Bruce Wilder | Link to comment | Dec 07, 2007 at 11:40 AM

    Maximizing Economic Efficiency and Minimizing Citizen Pain Should Be the Goal says...

    Some taxes are a rather inefficient way to collect revenues. An example would be the capital gains tax. Many nations set the rate at zero. This does not result in more revenue for the gov, but it does result in a higher economy overall, which is better for the citizens (who have more).

    That said, the gov does need funds to operate. Taxes should be collected in the most economically efficient way, and from groups that can most afford them. Taxes like capital gains that reduce the overall economy, or highly regressive taxes like the property tax cause needless pain.

    Posted by: Maximizing Economic Efficiency and Minimizing Citizen Pain Should Be the Goal | Link to comment | Dec 07, 2007 at 11:49 AM

    Robinia says...

    ....Naive hopeful person I am, I keep waiting to hear about the connection between the population being led into believing this stuff and understanding why our children are falling so far behind others world-wide in math. The Republican candidates are merely repeating by rout the Bush received wisdom here-- which I think is lies. Is the "education president" demanding accountability here? Are his would-be Republican sucessors? (Only "creative accountants" need apply.... legacy scholars from Yale, perhaps? close friends and relatives of Kenny Boy?). Their advisors may not be as capable as Mark thinks.

    Good to see some press tacking a bit toward truth. Some one of them should stand tall, like a smart American, and ask that simple question... Are you a liar, or are your advisors fools?

    Posted by: Robinia | Link to comment | Dec 07, 2007 at 11:53 AM

    Brooks says...

    ABSOLUTELY, Mark Thoma! For quite a while I have been doing my small part to debunk this myth -- and to encourage the press to ask exactly the question you propose to politicians and now to presidential candidates. It's amazing to me, and extremely frustrating, that the question is never asked (at least I have never read/heard it asked despite the great many times a politician repeats this myth). For anyone encountering an obstinate supply-sider, I encourage you to refer them to these two posts of mine:
    Conservative Economists on the Bush Tax Cuts & Revenues
    Illustration of the Laffer Curve

    Posted by: Brooks | Link to comment | Dec 07, 2007 at 02:39 PM

    Lafayette says...

    JF: "Some tax cuts do raise revenues, of course."

    Well, they do. They raise household revenues and, under certain conditions, that disposable income may (or may not) increase consumption, which then raises state sales tax revenues. (Increased revenue do increase Federal taxation revenues, but of themselves they do not "pay for the tax cut".) It depends upon consumer propensity to spend, which is not something one turns on and off like a faucet.

    Still, the proposition was, "They pay for themselves" -- which is patently ridiculous. Not all the disposable income is spent on consumption, and much of it may go into either savings or investments (equities, money market, etc.) It is therefore HIGHLY unlikely that foregone tax revenue is compensated by new tax revenue generation.

    The proposition is just so much electioneering hogwash. Much ado about nothing.

    Posted by: Lafayette | Link to comment | Dec 09, 2007 at 01:14 AM

    Lafayette says...

    Anonymous: Taxes like capital gains that reduce the overall economy, or highly regressive taxes like the property tax cause needless pain.

    Righteous Right Hogwash

    How do capital gains taxes "reduce the overall economy"? They reduce the income of those with large equity portfolios, that's all. Ever hear of Income Inequality? Nahhhh.

    How does a regressive property tax cause needless pain except to those who are excessively rich enough to own costly estates? Do you think Billy-boy Gates is crying with anguish over the property taxes on his multi-million dollar home in Washington state?

    Come back to the forum when you've got your mind engaged. You might then show some artful reasoning for your proposals -- rather than sloganeering.

    NB: Try all the technical tricks you may, but mindless spam will still get onto the board.

    Posted by: Lafayette | Link to comment | Dec 09, 2007 at 01:29 AM

    Lafayette says...

    Robinia: I keep waiting to hear about the connection between the population being led into believing this stuff and understanding why our children are falling so far behind others world-wide in math.

    Naiveness taken to the extreme

    You've hit onto something.

    Cultural laxity is when "conventional wisdom" is allowed to capture attention and displace serious reflection. Reagan pulled that trick off with the Laffer-curve nonsense, thereby allowing substantial decreases in overall taxation at the higher income levels -- and the Income Inequality from which America suffers today.

    Conventional wisdom occurs when considered thought (and contrarian debate) is replaced by repetitive jargon and sloganeering -- typically by media-manipulation. It is communication theory that a notion repeated sufficiently often becomes accepted as a "known truth". Even when there has been no basis in fact. A complacent Press Corp that does not question conventional wisdom, simply promotes the process of their formulation.

    About the kids' math scores? There's no mystery there either. The "value" of something as intangible as education requires dedicated, external emphasis -- namely by the parents. It is not intuitively obvious to most students, I submit.

    So, parental laxity is the reason behind lower SAT scores in America. (Parents who want results, either from their children or their school systems must be militant to obtain them.) If graduate students are more foreign than American-born presently, it is because parents (typically the poor) press upon their children the necessity of a good education in order to take the escalator up to a middle-class existence. They insist upon it from an early age.

    This motivational emphasis is no longer as strong in America as it was in the past -- namely, the post-war latter half of the last century. Children think gaming is an appropriate way of investing their time (presently) because the return-in-pleasure is immediate. Education is of no concern, since most may think that getting a job (in the future) will "take care of itself".

    It is naiveness taken to the extreme and abetted by parental laxity. This is the second or third generation of parents brought up in such beliefs. That the future can be assumed as a "given certainty". That the present is for gratification whilst sacrifice is not necessary for a future that is more or less assured. It's the New American Dream, become conventional wisdom.

    So, these naive notions are being carried from generation to generation.

    Posted by: Lafayette | Link to comment | Dec 09, 2007 at 02:43 AM

    calmo says...

    Shoot I like this (Robinia) expression:Good to see some press tacking a bit toward truth.sailing right along to the next one:Some one of them should stand tall, like a smart American, [you hear that, w?...there's no hope for you] and ask that simple question... Are you a liar, or are your advisors fools?which has to be one of my all time favorite demands (U a liar?) right up there with the one the toddler asks, hoping like mad: "U a bad guy?!"...but "are your advisors fools?" hits my funny bone too.[You think I should send for my press secretary to help with some of these questions?]

    Bruce Wilder saysIt is not the fact check that journalists shy away from, so much as the moral implications, which follow and it seems to me that the fact checking is a small part too, but the fact selecting is huge. The story is written before the facts are gathered and then at best confirmed by selecting the ones that support the narrative, the party line, the journalist's paycheck. Yeah, so not laboring the moral implications much.

    Posted by: calmo | Link to comment | Dec 09, 2007 at 03:18 AM

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    Well, ideally it is the public. The price of liberty is eternal vigilance, and if the public are overwhelmingly happy to believe the hustlers and glad-handers who promise to protect them from the exploitation of the dark skinned parasites and hand them their wallets and the keys to the bank, too bad for the public interest.

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    The study shows:

    A 46% increased risk of asthma at ages 6-7 years in kids who got acetaminophen for fever in their first year of life.
    A 48% increased risk of runny nose and red, itchy eyes at ages 6-7 in kids who got acetaminophen for fever in their first year of life.
    A 35% increased risk of eczema at ages 6-7 in kids who got acetaminophen for fever in their first year of life.
    A threefold higher risk of current asthma symptoms in 6- to 7-year-olds who took acetaminophen at least once a month compared with those who did not take the drug.
    22% of severe childhood asthma is linked to acetaminophen use during the first year of life.
    38% of severe childhood asthma is linked to acetaminophen use later in childhood.
    [url=http://medicine-infonet.com/procedures_and_tests/article.htm]Medicine-Infonet[/url]
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    Posted by: Orielsslors | Link to comment | Sep 23, 2008 at 06:51 AM

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    A 48% increased risk of runny nose and red, itchy eyes at ages 6-7 in kids who got acetaminophen for fever in their first year of life.
    A 35% increased risk of eczema at ages 6-7 in kids who got acetaminophen for fever in their first year of life.
    A threefold higher risk of current asthma symptoms in 6- to 7-year-olds who took acetaminophen at least once a month compared with those who did not take the drug.
    22% of severe childhood asthma is linked to acetaminophen use during the first year of life.
    38% of severe childhood asthma is linked to acetaminophen use later in childhood.
    [url=http://medicine-infonet.com/procedures_and_tests/article.htm]Medicine-Infonet[/url]
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    this swap is detailed here

    to wire it up we'll need a painless wiring harness for the ford 5.0, available here

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    any other wiring parts could also be sourced there as well.
    The turbos and turbo piping are also a niggle as the average inexperianced enthusiast would not have the skill necessary to assemble this, however a good exhaust shop should be able to weld it up for you.
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