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Jeremy Piger's recession probability index is creeping upward. This is for data through February, the latest data available due to reporting lags:
Also: See Jim Hamilton.
Posted by Mark Thoma on Thursday, May 1, 2008 at 05:59 PM in Economics | Permalink | TrackBack (0) | Comments (3)
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March 6, 2005
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I notice that this indicator has never been as high as this before, without a recession following. In which case I wonder what it actually is measuring. Surely the current recession probability is actually MUCH higher than 20%.
Posted by: reason | Link to comment | May 02, 2008 at 03:12 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/02/business/02econ-web.html
U.S. Sheds Fewer Jobs Than Expected
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
The economy lost 20,000 jobs in April, the fourth straight month of decline, but economists had braced for a drop of 85,000 jobs.
[Shallow decline, but likely lasting slow growth.]
Posted by: anne | Link to comment | May 02, 2008 at 07:29 AM
The economy lost jobs for the fourth month in a row. But we're not defined to be in a recession! As I noticed some years ago, "recession" is defined in terms of the effects on the elite. If we had 90% unemployment, as long as the 10% were producing enough, it would not be defined as a recession.
Posted by: Patricia Shannon | Link to comment | May 02, 2008 at 07:49 AM