Is the Personal Saving Rate Headed to Seven Percent?
Macroadvisors says the saving rate won't rise as much as some people are expecting:
The Saving Rate Does Not Have to Rise to 7% in the Near Term, Macroavisors: The argument that the personal saving rate is headed to 7% is based on a long-term relationship between the wealth-to-income ratio and the personal saving rate (pictured above) that is assumed to be stable over time. In fact, this long-term relationship shifts for reasons that are well understood. ...
Over the next 2 years, the relationship between the wealth-to-income ratio and the personal saving rate is expected to shift in such a way as to suggest only modest upward pressure on the personal saving rate — enough pressure to suggest an increase to about 3½% — but not nearly enough pressure to raise it to 7%.
Tim Kane of Growthology has a survey of 76 economics bloggers. In the survey that is about to be published, I asked about the saving rate after the economy recovers (74 responses):
|
In the post-recession economy, the savings rate will ... |
|||||
| Answer Options | Response Percent | Response Count | |||
| be substantially higher than before the recession | 12% | 9 | |||
| be somewhat higher than before the recession | 66% | 49 | |||
| return to its pre-recession level | 20% | 15 | |||
| be lower than before the recession | 1% | 1 | |||
I was in the "somewhat higher" group. Update: here's a visual representation:
Posted by Mark Thoma on Tuesday, May 4, 2010 at 12:24 AM in Economics, Saving |
Permalink
Comments (14)
Recent Posts
New Comments
Follow on Twitter
Friend on Facebook
Blog Feed on Tumblr
Email, Web Pages
New Links