Dean Baker: Strong Job Growth

With all the cheering about the jobs report this morning showing 243,000 jobs created last month and a fall in the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent, I thought it might be useful to present a contrary voice (especially since I'm at a conference and don't have time to do much myself). This is the most negative report I could find, and even then Dean Baker says that "The January report is undoubtedly one of the best reports that we have seen since the recession began." However, "While this is markedly better than what we had been seeing, at this rate we would not get back to full employment until 2020":

Strong Job Growth Leads to Drop in Black/Hispanic Unemployment, by Dean Baker: The Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate fell to 8.3 percent in January, bringing its drop over the last year to 0.8 percentage points. African Americans in particular saw an especially sharp decline in unemployment, with their overall rate falling by 2.2 percentage points to 13.6 percent, the lowest level since March of 2009. The unemployment rate for African American men over age 20 fell by 3.0 percentage points to 12.7 percent, the lowest level since November of 2008. The drop for women over age 20 was 1.3 percentage points to 12.6 percent. The unemployment rate for Hispanics dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 10.5 percent, the lowest since January of 2009. These numbers are erratic and may be partially reversed in future months.

The gains for whites were more modest, with the overall unemployment rate edging down by 0.1 percentage points to 7.4 percent. The unemployment rate for white men over age 20 fell by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9 percent, while it was unchanged for women over age 20 at 6.8 percent. The unemployment rate for all men and women over age 20 is now the same at 7.7 percent, the first time they have been equal since the recession began in December, 2007.

Other data in the household survey were more mixed. ...[continue reading]...