The first of two posts from Tim Duy:
Spending Update, by Tim Duy: Real personal spending growth was weakish in March on the back of a solid February gain that supported spending growth for the quarter. No surprise - don't get overly optimistic or pessimistic about any one piece of data. Slow and steady is the rule:
Note that the post-recession trend is slowing somewhat as the "recovery" continues, a feature more easily evident in the year-over-year numbers:
Inflation continues to converge to 2 percent:
The recent trend in core inflation, however, is a little above 2 percent:
This may get the Fed hawks a little more nervous. With inflation hovering around 2 percent, the bar to another round of QE is pretty high. Overall, I would say this report mirrors my overall read on GDP from last week:
Uninspiring but not disastrous - unless, of course, you are unemployed or have any hope of seeing a return to pre-recession spending, nominal or real. But good enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines.