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Friday, August 03, 2012

One More Employment Day Update

Here are my remarks on the employment report:

July Jobs Report Gives Mixed Signals

Like Tim, I don't see this as prompting the Fed to action:

...this report will raise speculation that the Fed will do more to stimulate the economy at its next meeting. But the Fed was already aware of the risks from Europe and elsewhere, and if weaker numbers over the last few months weren't enough to prompt the Fed to do more, it's hard to see how the slight improvement in the numbers would alter the Fed's course, particularly if subsequent data reinforces the "things aren't as bad as they seemed over the last few months" point of view.

The null hypothesis for the Fed could be "we'll do more to stimulate the economy at the next meeting unless there is overwhelming evidence that we shouldn't," or it could be "We'll keep policy on hold unless there is overwhelming evidence we should do more." I believe the Fed is looking for reasons not to act, i.e. it has the second null, and that this report is not the overwhelming evidence they need to change their view.

    Posted by on Friday, August 3, 2012 at 09:48 AM in Economics, Unemployment | Permalink  Comments (12)


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