Uncertain Uncertainty Effects

Don't be so certain about uncertainty:

Uncertain uncertainty effects and the fiscal cliff, by Cardiff Garcia: Recently we’ve come across a few stories making the case that the looming fiscal cliff is already having an impact on the US economy, as companies are reluctant to invest given the possibility of severe fiscal contraction at the start of next year. ...

But this “uncertainty” channel is always difficult to measure, as by necessity it relies both on anecdotal evidence, mainly the word of business executives who have an obvious interest in the outcome of whatever happens to be uncertain. ...

Anyways, adding to the skeptical case is a short note from Citi analysts, who looked at the planned spending decisions of 700 nonfinancial public companies and found that such retrenchment has yet to begin. ...