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Wednesday, October 10, 2012

'Grudging Declines in Part-Time Employment'

This is from Robert Barbera of the Center for Financial Economics at John Hopkins:

Much Ado About Not Much, by Robert J. Barbera, Center for Financial Economics, Johns Hopkins University: The allegedly shocking increase in September’s tally of household employment, and the fact that the lion’s share of that increase reflected gains in those self-identifying as part time employees for economic reasons is much ado about almost nothing. ...[T]he surge in part time employment is almost certainly a reflection of faulty seasonal adjustments. We witnessed three monthly spikes in the tally for part time for economic reasons. A spike in 2010 totaled 579,000. A spike in 2011 totaled 483,000. Most recently, we witnessed a spike of 582,000. All three occurred in September. ...
Two Pictures Tell The Story:
Glance at the two charts below. The spike in monthly part timers is visible three times. Three-month average data and it is hard to see.
How do we get out from under seasonals? The second chart below looks at part time, not seasonally adjusted (NSA), 12-month moving average data. Grudging declines in part time employment is the unambiguous message.

Part-time1

Part-time2

    Posted by on Wednesday, October 10, 2012 at 12:06 AM in Economics, Unemployment | Permalink  Comments (4)

          


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