Haven't checked in with Calculated Risk for awhile. He remains optimistic:
A Few Comments on New Home Sales, by Bill McBride, Calculated Risk: ... Looking at the first half of 2013, there has been a significant increase in sales this year. ... This was the highest sales for the first half of the year since 2008.
And even though there has been a large increase in the sales rate, sales are just above the lows for previous recessions. This suggests significant upside over the next few years. Based on estimates of household formation and demographics, I expect sales ... substantially higher than the current sales rate.
And an important point worth repeating every month: Housing is historically the best leading indicator for the economy, and this is one of the reasons I think The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades. ...
I'm a bit more cautious about the future (and I hope policymakers don't assume that we can sound the all clear). What do you think?