Brad DeLong's remarks at the Oregon Economic Forum:
What Will the "New Normal" for America Be?: Scenarios, by Brad DeLong: Picking up a thread from the last talk, let me adopt to some degree the rhetoric of the Chinese Communist Party. Let me say that we are coming to the end of a Special Period of Struggle in the American economy. Or perhaps I should look forward to our last speaker's possible next job, and say that as far as the American economy is concerned we hope very much that we are coming to the end of the Years of Living Dangerously. This means we can start thinking about, worrying about, hoping about what a normal economy will look like in America in the future--what will be the "new normal" that will emerge from this Special Period of Struggle, from theses Years of Living Dangerously? Things will be substantially different from the "old normal" we thought we understood back so long ago, back in 2007 and early 2008.
Thus I am here to talk about what the new normal is likely to be. And because I have watched forecasters like Tim down there have to explain over and over again, year after year, why this year is not like the forecast he made last year, I am not going to make forecasts. I am simply going to set out scenarios. I am going to give some alternatives with respect what the US economy as a whole is going to look like, moving into the future, after the next couple of years, when we do get back to a position in which the economy is no longer clearly in substantial disequilibrium.
As far as this audience is concerned, the important things to focus on when looking at what the economy’s "new normal" state will be are three. ...[continue to scenarios]...