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Friday, May 30, 2014

Paul Krugman: Cutting Back on Carbon

The cost of taking action to reduce the threat from global warming isn't as large as you might be led to believe:

Cutting Back on Carbon, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Next week the Environmental Protection Agency is expected to announce new rules designed to limit global warming. Although we don’t know the details yet, anti-environmental groups are already predicting vast costs and economic doom. Don’t believe them. Everything we know suggests that we can achieve large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at little cost to the economy.
Just ask the United States Chamber of Commerce.
O.K., that’s not the message the Chamber of Commerce was trying to deliver in the report it put out Wednesday. It clearly meant to convey the impression that the E.P.A.’s new rules would wreak havoc. But if you focus on the report’s content rather than its rhetoric, you discover that ... the numbers are remarkably small.
Specifically, the report considers a carbon-reduction program that’s probably considerably more ambitious than we’re actually going to see, and it concludes that between now and 2030 the program would cost $50.2 billion in constant dollars per year. That’s supposed to sound like a big deal. ... These days, it’s just not a lot of money.
Remember, we have a $17 trillion economy..., and it’s going to grow over time. So what the Chamber of Commerce is actually saying is that we can take dramatic steps on climate ... while reducing our incomes by only one-fifth of 1 percent. That’s cheap! ...
And ... this is based on anti-environmentalists’ own numbers. The real costs would almost surely be smaller...
You might ask why the Chamber of Commerce is so fiercely opposed to action against global warming, if the cost of action is so small. The answer, of course, is that the chamber is serving special interests, notably the coal industry ... and also ... the ever more powerful anti-science sentiments of the Republican Party.
Finally, let me take on the anti-environmentalists’ last line of defense — the claim that whatever we do won’t matter, because other countries, China in particular, will just keep on burning ever more coal. This gets things exactly wrong. Yes, we need an international agreement... But U.S. unwillingness to act has been the biggest obstacle to such an agreement. ...
Now, we haven’t yet seen the details of the new climate action proposal... We can be reasonably sure, however, that the economic costs of the proposal will be small, because that’s what the research — even research paid for by anti-environmentalists... — tells us. Saving the planet would be remarkably cheap.

    Posted by on Friday, May 30, 2014 at 12:24 AM in Economics, Environment | Permalink  Comments (38)



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