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Thursday, July 03, 2014

Employment Report: Positives and Negatives

 Jared Bernstein:

Jobs Report, First Impressions: A Strong June for the Job Market: Payrolls were up 288,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to a near six-year low of 6.1% last month, according to today’s employment report from the BLS (a rare Thursday edition due to the holiday weekend). It’s an unquestionably strong report, with industries across the economy posting job gains. Adding to the positive news, job growth estimates for the prior two reports were revised up by 29,000, implying an underlying average growth pace of 272,000 for payrolls in the second quarter of the year.

Unlike some prior months when the jobless rate came down, June’s unemployment rate fell for the “right reasons:” not more people leaving the labor force, but more people getting jobs.

The only negative I’m seeing at first glance is the 275,000 increase in the number of involuntary part-timers (part-time workers who’d rather have full-time jobs). But this is a volatile monthly number and is down 650,000 over the past year. ...

Calculated Risk

Comments on Employment Report: [Earlier: June Employment Report: 288,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate] Total employment increased 288,000 from May to June, and is now 415,000 above the previous peak. Private payroll employment increased 262,000 from May to June, and private employment is now 895,000 above the previous peak (the unprecedented large number of government layoffs has held back total employment). Through the first half of 2014, the economy has added 1,385,000 payroll jobs - up from 1,221,000 added during the same period in 2013 - even with the severe weather early this year.   My expectation at the beginning of the year was the economy would add between 2.4 and 2.7 million payroll jobs this year, and that still looks about right. Hopefully - now that the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.1% - wage growth will start to pick up. Overall this was another solid employment report. ...

Real Time Economics:

In an Overall Sunny Jobs Report, Here Are the Few Clouds, by Ben Leubsdorf: The June U.S. jobs report was broadly positive. Payrolls rose strongly, the unemployment rate fell and the number of Americans who have been out of work for more than six months continued to decline.
But there were a few upbeat ingredients still missing from the brew: accelerating wage growth, rising labor-force participation and more Americans finding full-time work instead of settling for a part-time job. ...

    Posted by on Thursday, July 3, 2014 at 09:31 AM in Economics, Unemployment | Permalink  Comments (7)

          


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