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Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Fed Watch: When The Fed Starts Raising Rates

Tim Duy:

When The Fed Starts Raising Rates, by Tim Duy: Via Twitter, modest proposal summarizes my last post:
Shorter @TimDuy, short the front end not the 10 year because the Fed will tighten before inflation is a problem http://t.co/1a0xRNueEO
— modest proposal (@modestproposal1) July 7, 2014
This made me think about the last tightening cycle. For those that hope to use tighter monetary policy to bolster the case against equities, recall that patience may be required:

FedTight1

For those making the bear case against long bonds, recall that initially long rates fell, and over the entire cycle rose just (roughly) 50bp:

FedTight2

The short end of the curve suffered, and the yield curve inverted:

FedTight3

How does this compare to now? If we consider last December's taper the beginning of this tightening cycle (the Fed does not; they prefer to think of it at reducing financial accommodation), stocks continue to power higher:

FedTight4

The 10 year bond initially fell on the taper talk and the yield curve steepened through the 10 year. But that steepening ended when the taper began:

FedTight5

More interesting is the flattening of the very long end after the taper began:

FedTight6

It looks like rates are signalling that the Fed will act to contain activity such that the economy does not overheat. Which, assuming the Fed maintains its current reaction function, tends to support modest porposal's interpretation - favor the long end of the curve over the short end.
I think the flattening of the yield curve should be a concern to the Fed. It suggests that while we frequently hear Janet Yellen described as a dove, the expectation is that her actual policy approach will be cautious bordering on hawkish. Not good if you think like Andy Harless:
I will consider Yellen's tenure a failure if the economy does not overheat.
— Andy Harless (@AndyHarless) July 5, 2014
I am sympathetic to this view. I would be a little more optimistic that the Fed would have more room to maneuver in the next recession if the long-end of the yield curve was signalling that the Fed was a little behind instead of a little ahead. And for more on why that is important, see Brad DeLong and his 17 tweet bear case for inflation.

    Posted by on Wednesday, July 9, 2014 at 12:24 AM in Economics, Fed Watch, Monetary Policy | Permalink  Comments (20)

          


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