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Friday, August 01, 2014

Fed Watch: July Employment Report

Tim Duy:

July Employment Report, by Tim Duy: The overall tenor of the July employment report was consistent with the song that Yellen and Co. are singing. Labor markets are generally improving at a moderate pace, yet despite relatively low unemployment, there is plenty of reason to believe considerable slack remains in the economy.
The headline nonfarm payroll number was a ho-hum gain of 209K with some small upward revisions for the previous two months. Steady above 200k gains this year are lifting the 12-month moving average of jobs higher:

NFPc080114

In the context of the range of indicators that Fed Chair Janet Yellen has drawn specific attention to:

NFPa080114

NFPb080114

Consistent with the consensus of the FOMC as revealed at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting, measures of underutilization of labor remain elevated. Notable is the flat wage growth - clearly a ball in Yellen's court. Moreover, these numbers should override any enthusiasm over yesterday's ECI report, which is obviously overtaken by events.
In other news, inflation remains below target:

PCEa080114

although pretty much right at target over the past three months:

PCEb080114

Numbers like these gave the Fed reason to upgrade its inflation outlook this week. If these numbers can hold up for the next several months, you will see the year-over-year number gradually converge to the Fed's target, clearing the way for the Fed's first rate hike in the middle of next year (my preference remains the second quarter over the third).
On the whole, these data continue to argue for a very gradual pace of tightening. The Fed will be in rush to normalize policy until labor underutilization approaches normal levels and wage growth accelerates. Since it's Friday and everyone is looking forward to the weekend, we can avoid re-inventing the wheel on this topic and just refer to Binyamin Appelbaum's report on the FOMC meeting, in which he quotes some random commentator:
The Fed’s chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, and her allies have taken a more cautious view, arguing that the decline in the unemployment rate appears to overstate the improvement in the labor market, because it counts only people who are looking for work. Ms. Yellen has said she expects some people who dropped out of the labor force to return as the economy continues to improve, and she has pointed to tepid wage growth as evidence that it remains easy to find workers.
“The recovery is not yet complete,” she told Congress this month.
The statement suggested that the committee continued to back Ms. Yellen’s view, said Tim Duy, a professor of economics at the University of Oregon.
“The committee as a whole is still willing to give Yellen the benefit of the doubt,” Mr. Duy said. “And honestly they have good reason. Until you get upward pressure on wages, it is terribly difficult to say that she’s wrong.”
In recent conversations with Oregon businesses, Mr. Duy said, he heard repeatedly that it was becoming harder to hire workers, but also that businesses were unwilling to offer higher wages as an inducement, because they doubted their ability to recoup the cost through increased sales or higher prices.
Bottom Line: Nothing here to change the outlook for monetary policy.

    Posted by on Friday, August 1, 2014 at 11:34 AM in Economics, Fed Watch, Monetary Policy | Permalink  Comments (26)

          


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