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Thursday, September 17, 2015

''Global Warming 'Hiatus' Never Happened''

About that supposed pause in global warming:

Global warming 'hiatus' never happened, Stanford scientists say: An apparent lull in the recent rate of global warming that has been widely accepted as fact is actually an artifact arising from faulty statistical methods, Stanford scientists say. ...The finding calls into question the idea that global warming "stalled" or "paused" during the period between 1998 and 2013. ...
Using a novel statistical framework that was developed specifically for studying geophysical processes such as global temperature fluctuations, Rajaratnam and his team of Stanford collaborators have shown that the hiatus never happened.
"Our results clearly show that, in terms of the statistics of the long-term global temperature data, there never was a hiatus, a pause or a slowdown in global warming," said Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist in the School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, and a co-author of the study.
Faulty ocean buoys
The Stanford group's findings are the latest in a growing series of papers to cast doubt on the existence of a hiatus. ...
The Stanford scientists say their findings should go a long way toward restoring confidence in the basic science and climate computer models that form the foundation for climate change predictions.
"Global warming is like other noisy systems that fluctuate wildly but still follow a trend," Diffenbaugh said. "Think of the U.S. stock market: There have been bull markets and bear markets, but overall it has grown a lot over the past century. What is clear from analyzing the long-term data in a rigorous statistical framework is that, even though climate varies from year-to-year and decade-to-decade, global temperature has increased in the long term, and the recent period does not stand out as being abnormal."

[I omitted the detailed discussion of the research.]

    Posted by on Thursday, September 17, 2015 at 09:49 AM in Economics, Environment | Permalink  Comments (13)


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