« 'China’s Trilemma—and a Possible Solution' | Main | Links for 03-11-16 »

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Future Economists Will Probably Call This Decade the 'Longest Depression'

Brad DeLong:

Future Economists Will Probably Call This Decade the 'Longest Depression': ... Back before 2008, I used to teach my students that during a disturbance in the business cycle, we'd be 40 percent of the way back to normal in a year. The long-run trend of economic growth, I would say, was barely affected by short-run business cycle disturbances. There would always be short-run bubbles and panics and inflations and recessions. They would press production and employment away from its long-run trend -- perhaps by as much as 5 percent. But they would be transitory.
After the shock hit, the economy would rapidly head back to normal. The equilibrium-restoring logic and magic of supply and demand would push the economy to close two-fifths of the gap to normal each year. After four years, only a seventh of the peak disturbance would remain.
In the aftermath of 2008, Stiglitz was indeed one of those warning that I and economists like me were wrong. Without extraordinary, sustained and aggressive policies to rebalance the economy, he said, we would never get back to what before 2008 we had thought was normal.
I was wrong. He was right. ...

    Posted by on Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 06:06 AM in Economics | Permalink  Comments (119)


    Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.