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Wednesday, June 01, 2016

Fed Watch: Waiting For The Employment Report

Tim Duy:

Waiting For The Employment Report, by Tim Duy: Last week Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave the green light for a rate hike this summer. Via the Wall Street Journal:
“It’s appropriate…for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time, and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate,” she said during a panel discussion at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University.
This follows on the back numerous Fed speakers, as well as the minutes of the last meeting, that helped place June into play. Of course, Yellen's "coming months" could easily be beyond June, and I suspect that her concern about underemployment and low wage growth will induce her to proceed cautiously and take a pass on June. That said, the meeting is clearly in play and the bar for the next rate hike appears relatively low.
The personal income and spending report bolstered the hawkish position that first quarter economic jitters were much ado about nothing. Real spending jumped 0.6 percent on the back of a lower savings rate, helping to put a floor under the year-over-year numbers:

PCESPEND0516

The consumer stubbornly refuses to believe that a recession is underway.
Inflation firmed somewhat for the month:

PCEa0516

Two of the last three monthly readings on the core were just above 2 percent annualized, something that will also give confidence to Fed hawks that their inflation forecast will play out (they will assume headline will head in that direction). Compared to a year ago, however, core inflation continues to languish below target.
The ISM report came in somewhat better than expected considering weak regional surveys. Most of the action was in suppliers delivers (slower), customers' inventories (flat), and prices (higher). New orders held up well; employment still a touch below 50:

ISMa0516

On net, neither a great relief nor a disaster. But then it is probably too early to expect the healing touch of a weaker dollar and stronger oil to be evident in the manufacturing data.
In addition, construction spending was down (see Calculated Risk), which, in addition to the ISM report brought the Atlanta Fed estimate of Q2 GDP growth down to a still respectable 2.5 percent from 2.8 percent. If the Fed could be confident in the number, they would have a strong incentive to hike. But I suspect they will wanted an even clearer picture that won't be available until the July meeting at the earliest.
The Beige Book was fairly uneventful on most accounts. Growth was still just "modest" but with an optimistic outlook:
Information received from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts mostly described modest economic growth since the last Beige Book report. Economic activity in April through mid-May increased at a moderate pace in the San Francisco District, while modest growth was reported by Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Minneapolis. Chicago noted that the pace of growth slowed, as did Kansas City. Dallas reported that economic activity grew marginally, while New York characterized activity as generally flat since the last report. Several Districts noted that contacts had generally optimistic outlooks, with firms expecting growth either to continue at its current pace or to increase.
There was some anecdotal evidence that hawks will use to justify a rate hike:
Employment grew modestly since the last report, but tight labor markets were widely noted; wages grew modestly, and price pressure grew slightly in most Districts.

In my opinion, modest wage growth and slight price pressures do not sound particularly worrisome.

Auto sales ran at estimated 17.4 million annual rate in May. Bloomberg suggested that the numbers might scare the Fed straight:
U.S. auto sales were softer than predicted in May, a bellwether month that may help Federal Reserve decision makers determine whether the economy can handle an interest-rate hike this summer.
My guess is that the Fed already knows that auto sales are leveling out and are not likely to be a significant source of growth going forward. In other words, I have to imagine it is already in the forecast.

Another Bloomberg story to keep an eye on:

Softening apartment rents in New York and San Francisco have forced landlord Equity Residential to lower its revenue forecast for the second time this year, as newly signed leases aren’t meeting the company’s expectations.
Equity Residential said it expects revenue growth from properties open at least a year to be no higher than 4.5 percent this year, according to a statement Wednesday. The reduction follows one made in April, when the Chicago-based real estate investment trust set the upper limit at 5 percent, down from a previous estimate of 5.25 percent.
Two thoughts. First is that maybe multifamily construction has finally caught up with demand, thus rent growth will slow and so will its impact on inflation. Second thought is that if demand for apartments is tapering off, then it may be that millennials are growing out of apartments and into single family housing. This handoff is thus likely to continue:

PermitsB0516

Look for softer underwriting conditions and marketing campaigns to help encourage this shift.
The Verizon strike likely negatively impacted the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers in the May employment report, so adjust your expectations accordingly. I would pay special attention to the unemployment rate and metrics of underemployment; the Fed would be more inclined to hike rates if progress on these from resumed.
Bottom Line: Nothing here suggests to me that the Fed will soon reject their expectation of a rate hike in the "coming months."

    Posted by on Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 03:37 PM in Economics, Fed Watch, Monetary Policy | Permalink  Comments (20)


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