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Monday, January 23, 2017

Paul Krugman: Things Can Only Get Worse

How will Trump handle bad news?:

Things Can Only Get Worse: ...Donald Trump ... spent his first full day in office having a temper tantrum, railing against accurate reports of small crowds at his inauguration..., how is he going to react to disappointing numbers about things that actually matter? ... How will a man who evidently can’t handle even the smallest blow to his ego deal with it?
Let’s talk about the predictable bad news.
First, the economy..., unemployment probably can’t fall much from here... And since bad stuff does happen, there’s a strong likelihood that unemployment will be higher four years from now than it is today.
Oh, and Trumpist budget deficits will probably widen the trade deficit, so that manufacturing employment in particular is likely to fall, not rise.
A second front on which things will almost surely get worse is health care. ...
On a third front, crime, the future direction is unclear. ... Violent crime is, in fact, way down... Crime could, I suppose, fall further, but it could also rise. What we do know is that the Trump administration can’t pacify America’s urban war zones, because those zones don’t exist.
So how will Mr. Trump handle the bad news...? That’s obvious: He’ll deny reality, the way he always does when it threatens his narcissism. But will his supporters go along with his fantasy?
They might. After all, they blocked out the good news from the Obama era. Two-thirds of Trump voters believe, falsely, that the unemployment rate rose under Obama. (Three-quarters believe George Soros is paying people to protest Mr. Trump.) Only 17 percent of self-identified Republicans are aware that the number of uninsured is at a historic low. Most people thought crime was rising even when it was falling. So maybe they will block out bad news in the Trump years. ...
On top of that, Mr. Trump made big promises during the campaign, so the risk of disillusionment is especially high.
Will he respond to bad news by accepting responsibility and trying to do better? Will he renounce his fortune and enter a monastery? That seems equally likely.
No, the insecure egomaniac-in-chief will almost surely deny awkward truths, and berate the media for reporting them. And — this is what worries me — it’s very likely that he’ll try to use his power to shoot the messengers. ...
You may have thought that last weekend’s temper tantrum was bad. But there’s much, much worse to come.

    Posted by on Monday, January 23, 2017 at 11:26 AM in Economics, Politics | Permalink  Comments (87)


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