I am at the TIGER Forum: Economic Growth: Challenges for Regulatory Change in Toulouse, France today (TIGER = Toulouse - Industry - Globalization - Environment - Regulation).
Lots of good speakers, e.g. Jean-Claude Trichet talks tomorrow evening.
I am here today (I discuss inequality, poverty, and social policy quite a bit and thought this conference would be a good opportunity to hear some of the latest academic research on these issues):
NBER Universities' Research Conference
Poverty, Inequality, and Social Policy
Phillip B. Levine and Melissa Schettini Kearney, Organizers
May 10-11, 2013
Royal Sonesta Hotel
PROGRAM
Friday, May 10
1:30 pm Welcome and Introduction
1:40 pm
Hilary W. Hoynes, University of California at Davis and NBER
Marianne Bitler, University of California at Irvine and NBER
Elira Kuka, University of California at Davis
Do In-Work Tax Credits Serve as a Safety Net?
Discussant: Bruce Meyer, University of Chicago and NBER
2:30 pm
Bhashkar Mazumder, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Sarah Miller, University of Michigan RWJ Scholar
The Effects of the Massachusetts Health Reform on Financial Well Being
Discussant: Robin McKnight, Wellesley College and NBER
3:20 pm Break
3:40 pm
Joanne Hsu, Federal Reserve Board
David Matsa, Northwestern University
Brian T. Melzer, Northwestern University
Unemployment Insurance and Consumer Credit
Discussant: Tal Gross, Columbia University and NBER Food Insecurity Roundtable
4:30 pm
Neeraj Kaushal, Columbia University and NBER
Jane Waldfogel, Columbia University
Vanessa Wight, Columbia University
Public Policy and Food Insecurity among Children
Patricia M. Anderson, Dartmouth College and NBER
Kristin Butcher, Wellesley College and NBER
Hilary W. Hoynes, University of California at Davis and NBER
Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Northwestern University and NBER
Understanding Food Insecurity During the Great Recession
Lucie Schmidt, Williams College
Lara Shore-Sheppard, Williams College and NBER
Tara Watson, Williams College and NBER
The Effect of Safety Net Programs on Food Insecurity
5:30 pm Adjourn
6:00 pm Reception and Group Dinner
Saturday, May 11
8:00 am Continental Breakfast
8:30 am
Hannes Schwandt, Princeton University
Unlucky Cohorts: Income, Health Insurance and AIDS Mortality of Recession Graduates
Discussant: Ann Huff Stevens, University of California at Davis and NBER
9:20 am
Ariel Kalil, University of Chicago
Magne Mogstad, University College London
Mari Rege, Case Western Reserve University
Mark Votruba, Case Western Reserve University
Father Presence and the Intergenerational Transmission of Educational Attainment
Discussant: Elizabeth Ananat, Duke University and NBER
10:10 am Break
10:30 am
Phillip B. Levine, Wellesley College and NBER
Melissa Schettini Kearney, University of Maryland and NBER
Income Inequality and the Decision to Drop Out of High School
Discussant: David Deming, Harvard University and NBER
11:20 am
Anna Aizer, Brown University and NBER
Florencia Borrescio Higa, Brown University
Hernan Winkler, University of California at Los Angeles
Impact of Rising Inequality on Health at Birth
Discussant: Doug Almond, Columbia University and NBER
12:10 pm Lunch
1:10 pm
Adriana Lleras-Muney, University of California at Los Angeles and NBER
Anna Aizer, Brown University and NBER
Joseph P. Ferrie, Northwestern University and NBER
Shari Eli, University of Toronto
The Long Term Impact of Means-Tested Transfers: Evidence from the Mother's Pension Program
Discussant: Hoyt Bleakely, University of Chicago and NBER
2:00 pm
Sendhil Mullainathan, Harvard University and NBER
Eldar Shafir, Princeton University
The Psychology of Poverty (additional paper)
2:45 pm
David Ellwood, Harvard University and NBER
What Can We Possibly Do Now? Reflections on Future Directions for Research and Policy in an Era of Rising Inequality
3:15 pm Adjourn
I have a feeling this session is going to be a bit irritating:
Debt and the Deficit: What's Really on the Table?
Monday, April 29, 2013 2:15 PM - 3:15 PM
Moderator: Steven Rattner, Chairman, Willett Advisors; former Counselor and Lead Auto Advisor to the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
With outsize debt putting the stability of credit markets and the pace of economic growth at risk, will Americans embrace shared sacrifice to set the country on a path toward fiscal health? Or is the problem essentially the result of gridlock in Washington? And what does "shared sacrifice" actually mean? Who will bear the heavier burden: the rich, the elderly, the middle class? Are Simpson and Bowles still relevant? Our panel will examine the economics and politics around our accumulating public debt and annual deficit, with an eye toward palatable and realistic solutions. Can we grow our way out of the mess? How will we cope with the twin hazards of graying demographics and healthcare inflation? Back to the credit markets: Are Treasuries as safe as they seem?
There was remarkably little discussion of increasing revenues through tax rate increases. There was some discussion of increasing revenue, but it was mainly about eliminating deductions like home interest rather than increasing tax rates. Instead, most of the focus was on, surprise, "entitlement reform" with only Orszag being careful to point to health care costs as the main problem to solve.
The most entertaining moment was when the business guy on the panel, David Cote, said that unlike in business where what you think, say, and do must align, for Congress these are different decisions. Senator Corker said he was offended by that comment and went on to defend Congress (e.g. saying many people in business don't understand that politicians have to represent a diverse constituency). Ha. A Republican fighting with a business rep, then defending government. Too bad he wants to cut the crap out of it.
Other than that, the degree of hawkery and the implicit assumption that the only way to solve problems with our long-run budget picture is to cut social insurance programs the working class relies upon was, in fact, irritating. The continued discussion about deficit reduction as the key to spurring private sector growth was similarly irritating. It's exactly what we heard about the Bush tax cuts, and we know how that turned out. A huge increase in the debt load with little (if any) increased growth to show for it.
Finally, as far as I recall, the word "unemployment" did not come up. In the short-run, deficit hawkery is what's standing in the way of doing more to help with the unemployment problem. The key question -- whether the concern in the short-run with the debt rather than the unemployed is justified in the short-run (it isn't in my view) -- was not even discussed.
I am here today (Milken Global Conference 2013).
One quick first impression based upon the schedule of sessions. In the last few years, two or three years ago more so than last year, there were quite a few "soul-searching" sessions from the financial industry. How did financial markets fail, how can they be fixed, etc. That's not to say that there wasn't a lot of resistance to regulation from the industry, but they were at least dealing with the main issues, there was an attempt at an honest appraisal from many, and there were quite a few sessions on the topic.
There are sessions on regulation this year -- I'm currently in one called "Global Financial Regulation" (usual TBTF discussion so far, just turning to leverage) -- but compared to previous years the main concern now appears to be where we are headed in the next few years, opportunities for investment, etc. I suppose that's good news for the economy, but for financial stability? There's still a lot of work to be done, and an eroding will to do it.
The forum will be streamed live at www.kauffman.org/EconBloggersLiveStream from 8:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. CDT.
Webcast Schedule: Economic Bloggers Forum 2013
Tentative agenda (subject to change)Friday, April 12 (all times listed are Central Time)
8:30 a.m. Welcome by Brad Delong, Professor of Economics U.C. Berkeley and weblogger at "Grasping Reality with Both Invisible Hands"
8:35 a.m. Keynote – Economic and Financial Weblogging and the Future (Speaker: Hal Varian; Discussant Joshua Gans; Moderator, Mayor Sly James)
9:35 a.m. Break (no Webcast)
9:50 a.m. Panel discussion – Economic and Financial Weblogging, and New Modes and Orders in Education (Speaker: Clay Shirky; Discussant Ben Wildavsky; Moderator: R. Crosby Kemper III)
10:40 a.m. Break (no Webcast)
10:55 a.m. Panel discussion – Economic and Financial Weblogging and the Future and Sustainability of Financial Journalism (Panel: Cardiff Garcia, Joe Weisenthal, Allison Schrager; Moderator: Troy Davig)
11:45 a.m. Lunch (no Webcast)
12:45 p.m Panel discussion – Economic and Financial Weblogging and the Future and Sustainability of Mainstream Journalism (Panel: Bruce Bartlett; Megan McArdle; Josh Barro; Moderator: Felix Salmon)
1:35 p.m. Break (no Webcast)
1:50 p.m. Panel discussion – Economic and Financial Weblogging, Thinktanks and Policy Advocacy, and the Public Sphere (Panel: Stan Collender; Robert Litan; Sarah Kliff; Moderator: Corey Dillon)
2:40 p.m. Break (no Webcast)
2:55 p.m. Panel discussion – Economic and Financial Weblogging and Standard Ivy-Covered Academia (Speaker: Mark Thoma; Discussant Stephanie Kelton; Moderator: Bob Strom)
3:45 p.m. Closing remarks
I should have noted this when I posted the conference schedule. If you want to watch a live feed of the sessions, it's at:
Live feed for INET Hong Kong Conference
Remember that all times listed are Hong Kong Time (15 hours ahead of PST, 12 hours ahead of EST). Videos of each session will also be posted (same address as the link above).
Here today:
Changing of the Guard
INET Conference 2013
Hong Kong
The developed economies of Europe, North America, and Japan are facing tremendous challenges related to indebtedness and stagnation. How will the developing economies of Asia respond to this challenge as they reorient their growth strategies to meet the rising aspirations of their people?
Victor K. Fung - Chairman, Fung Global Institute Edwin Lim -
Director, China Economic Research and Advisory Program
A. Michael Spence - Academic Council Chairman, Fung Global Institute
Moderator: Orville Schell - Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society
14:15 - 16:15
The transformation of basic science into viable inventions that improve the well-being of mankind is a delicate process. The study of innovation, both in the past and the present, reveals a complex process that involves complementary contributions from government, the financial markets, and the investment community What has worked in past and what current strategies are being successfully employed by nations around the world?
Li
Daokui – Mansfield Freeman Chair, Professor,Department of Finance,
Tsinghua University
Bill Janeway - Senior Advisor, Warburg Pincus; INET Governing Board
Edward Jung - Founder & Chief Technology Officer, Intellectual Ventures
Mari Pangestu - Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Republic of
Indonesia
Lord David Sainsbury - Chancellor, University of Cambridge
Moderator: Peter Jungen - Peter Jungen Holding; INET Governing Board
16:15 - 16:45
16:45 - 18:15
Presenter:
Edward Fullbrook - University of the West of England
Presenter:
Jean-Pierre Dupuy, Professor of Philosophy, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris
Mark Anspach, Research Fellow, CREA, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris
Paul Dumouchel - Professor of Philosophy, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto,
Japan
André Orléan, Professor of Economics, Ecole Normale Supérieure
Moderator: Jean-Pierre Dupuy, Professor of Philosophy, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris
18:30 - 19:30
19:30 - 21:30
Adair Lord Turner explores the role of financial, monetary, and fiscal policy management in this era of deficient aggregate demand, and discussants explore the implications of Turner’s thinking on monetary financing of debt in light of the current challenges facing many nations at the forefront of the world economy.
Introduction:
George Soros -
Chairman, Soros Fund Management; Open Society Foundations
Keynote Presenter:
Adair, Lord Turner
- Chairman, Financial Services Administration
Discussion:
Hiroshi Watanabe - CEO/Executive Managing Director Japan bank for
International Co- operation
William White - Chairman of the Economic Development and Review
Committee at the OECD
Moderator: Hu Shuli - Editor-in-Chief, Caixin Media
8:00 - 9:00
9:15 - 10:45
The architecture of the international monetary system has important implications for the privileges and responsibilities of the reserve currency countries at the center of the system. As China continues to develop and become a leading economy in the global system, it will be important to understand the evolving role of the RMB as a potential new reserve currency and to understand both the domestic and international ramifications of this institutional evolution.
Introduction: Yanqing Yang - Deputy Editor-in-Chief, China
Business News
Barry Eichengreen - Professor, University of California at Berkeley
Jean Pisani Ferry - Director, Bruegel
Sylvia Ng - Head of Strategy and Planning, HSBC Bank (China)
Company Limited
Yu Yongding - Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, CASS
Moderator: Paola Subacchi - Research Director, International Economics Chatham House
10:45 - 11:15
11:15 - 12:45
BREAKOUT SESSION A THE EURO ZONE CURRENCY SYSTEM: CATALYST OR WRECKING BALL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?
The flaws in the euro zone single currency system that were uncovered by the crisis of 2008 have crippled many European nations for more than four years. Self-fulfilling sovereign debt default spirals, persistent intolerable levels of unemployment, and disputes over the proper role for the European Central Bank are telltale symptoms of a social and economic system in disarray. What can be done to fix this system? Can it be repaired and once again become the basis for a hopeful and balanced integration of Europe?
Erik Berglof -
Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Dennis Snower - President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Lars
Feld, Professor of Ecnomics University of Frieburg
Discussant: Harold
James - Claude and Lore Kelly Professor, Princeton University
Discussant
: Leif Pagrotsky - Member of Parliament, Sweden
Moderator: Niels Thygesen - Professor Emeritus, University of Copenhagen
BREAKOUT SESSION B FINANCIAL STABILITY AND REGULATORY DESIGN
INET's financial stability research program encompasses a range of working groups. These focus on the causes and consequences of the instability of the financial system, and on new modeling approaches to credit and the macroeconomy. Agent-based and network-based models provide a window into the system's dynamic instability, while legal and political-economic approaches shed light on the institutional architecture of the financial system.
Anat
Admati - Professor, Stanford University
Simon Johnson - Professor, MIT; Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute
Katharina Pistor - Professor, Columbia Law School
Andrew Sheng - President, Fung Global Institute
Moderator: Perry Mehrling - Director of Education Programs, INET
BREAKOUT SESSION C NEW APPROACHES TO ECONOMIC CHALLENGES – ORGANIZED BY OECD
This session will feature the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) initiative on New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC). NAEC is an organisation-wide reflection process to upgrade the analytical frameworks and strengthen the policy advice of the OECD. Its objective is to develop a strategic policy agenda for inclusive growth. The financial and economic crisis is a key motivation for NAEC, but the reflection also aims to identify policy options to address the current challenges we are facing (slow growth, high unemployment, increasing inequality), as well as the rise in interconnectedness and complexity of the world economy.
Gabriela Ramos – Chief of Staff and G20 Sherpa, OECD
Discussant:
Barry
Eichengreen - Professor, Berkeley
Discussant:
Robert Johnson –
Executive Director, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Discussant: William
White - Chairman of the Economic Development and Review Committee at the
OECD
Moderator: Pier Carlo Padoan – Deputy Secretary General and Chief Economist, OECD
12:45 - 14:45
The formation of expectations and the subtle implicit assumptions regarding knowledge held by consumers, businesses, investors, and policy makers is a foundation stone that must be thoroughly explored so that models of economic dynamics represent the phenomena under investigation in an illuminating manner. The obvious presence of non-routine change, or what Frank Knight called radical uncertainty, challenges the very notion that dynamic economic systems can be modeled as closed systems. How do these models perform? If dynamic economics is better envisioned as an open system, what can researchers do to understand and analyze the decision making process? What are the implications for economic policy and governance of open system dynamics?
Sheila
Dow - Emeritus Professor, University of Stirling
Roman Frydman
-Professor of Economics, New York University
Roger Guesnerie
-Chairman of the Board, Paris School of Economics
George Soros
-Chairman, Soros Fund Management; Open Society Foun- dations
Moderator: Axel Leijonhufvud - Professor, University of California Los Angeles
14:50 - 16:30
EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING SESSION A THE IMPERFECT KNOWLEDGE ECONOMICS (IKE) APPROACH TO MODELING AN OPEN WORLD
The INET research program on IKE is working at the University of Copenhagen, New York University, and the University of New Hampshire to understand the implications of fallibility for economic systems. In these sessions, IKE researchers will discuss how they model risk in asset markets and the evolution of asset prices in a world characterized by imperfect knowledge.
Moderator: Michael Goldberg - Professor, University of New Hampshire
Part 1 (3:00-3:55): IKE Modeling of Asset Prices
Nick
Mangee - Junior Research Associate, INET Program on IKE Rationality in
the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Fundamentals, Psychology, and
Structural Change
Peter Sullivan - Junior Research Associate, INET Program on IKE
Rationality and the Meese and Rogoff Exchange-Rate-Disconnect Puzzle:
Learning vs. Contingent Knowledge
Morten Tabor - Research Associate, INET Center on IKE at the University
of Copenhagen Econometrics of IKE Models
General Discussion (15 minutes)
Part 2 (15:55-16:30): IKE Modeling of Risk in Asset Markets
Olesia Kozlova - Junior Research Associate, INET Program on IKE
Forward-Rate Bias, Contingent Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed
and Developing Countries
Josh Stillwagon - Junior Research Associate, INET Program on IKE
A Keynes-IKE Model of Currency Risk: A Cointegrated VAR Investigation
General Discussion (10 minutes)
EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING SESSION B WHAT IS THE ROLE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS IN ECONOMICS?
Many of our global problems – from climate change to financial crises – arise from people’s failure to cooperate adequately to achieve socially desirable outcomes. There is a widespread recognition that we need a deeper understanding of human nature in order to discern new opportunities for human cooperation. The Kiel Institute and the Max Planck Institute in Leipzig are developing an interdisciplinary program with INET to examine new avenues of how psychological and neuroscientific knowledge about human motivation, emotion and social cognition can inform models of economic decision making. How can a profounder understanding of human motivation and preferences lead to a broader appreciation of our prospects for pro-social and sustainable economic behaviors?
David
Tuckett - Training and Supervising Analyst in the British
Psychoanalytical Society
Inske
Pirschel - Research Assistant, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel
Gert
Pönitzsch - Research Assistant, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Cars
Hommes - Professor of Economics Universiteit van Amsterdam
Moderator: Dennis Snower - President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
16:45 - 18:15
The Chinese economy has developed at a remarkable pace over the last 30 years. The integration of China into the world economy has led to extraordinary flows of foreign direct investment, infrastructure buildup, and an impressive export capacity. As we look to the future, both domestic and international considerations bear on the capacity for China to continue on this robust course and for the world to adjust to China’s growth and changed role. The differences in philosophical, legal, and governance systems between China and the West suggest that the challenges will be formidable and that cooperation and mutual benefit will require extraordinary attention.
Daniel
A. Bell - Professor, Tsinghua University
Jan Kregel - Senior scholar at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard
College
Huang Yiping -Professor of Economics, National School of Development,
Peking University
Yu Yongding - Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, CASS
Moderator: Xiao Geng - Director of Research and Senior Fellow, Fung Global Institute
18:15 - 19:30
19:30 - 21:30
How do different nations handle the problem of social design? What is the role of legal systems in creating and implementing that design? There is a large body of comparative evidence on the behaviors and performance of different legal traditions. These concerns are of vital importance to emerging nations as they plot their course toward institutional deepening and maturation to facilitate their development.
Niall Ferguson - Professor, Harvard University
Katharina Pistor - Professor, Columbia Law School
Moderator: Anatole Kaletsky - Chairman, INET Governing Board
9:15 - 10:45
The extraordinary development of the emerging economies has been associated with increasing incomes and rising inequality. In the developed world, the integration between emerging and mature economies also has been accompanied by rising inequality, most profoundly in the United States. A myriad of causes related to trade, policy, and technological change have been cited as, reasons for the unequal distribution of income and wealth in varying degrees. As the process continues, what are the implications for societies across the planet as these three large and powerful economies move into the future?
Steven Durlauf - Professor, University of Wisconsin
Xiao Geng - Director of Research and Senior Fellow Fung Global
Institute
John McArthur - Senior Fellow, Fung Global Institute
Sanjay Reddy - Associate Professor of Economics, Director of
Undergraduate Studies, The New School for Social Research
Moderator: Pier Carlo Padoan - Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist of the OECD
10:50 - 12:20
BREAKOUT SESSION A AUSTERITY, POLARIZATION, AND THE PROSPECT OF REGIME CHANGE
Both the international economy and the economies of many individual countries are badly out of balance. Not surprisingly, political polarization and social cleavages are sharply increasing within many, though not at the same rate. This panel looks at the varying experiences of Europe, the US, and some countries in Asia, considering not only the domestic roots and complications of policy making, but also how austerity continues to generate major turmoil and challenges to existing political arrangements.
Thomas Ferguson
- Professor, UMASS, Boston; INET (On the USA) Contributor: Jie
Chen University Statistician at the UMASS, Boston
Paul Jorgensen - Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of
Texas, Pan American
Ching Kwan Lee - Professor, UCLA (On China)
David Vines - Professor, University of Oxford
Junsen Zhang - Professor of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Moderator: Steven Durlauf - Professor of Economics, University of Wisconsin
BREAKOUT SESSION B INEQUALITY IN CHINA
INET's Human Capital and Economic Opportunity working group discusses advances in Chinese inequality research and critical findings of working group members.
Albert
Park - Professor of Economics, Chair Professor of Social Science,
Hong Kong Institute for Science and Technology
Scott
Rozelle - Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow Stanford University
Dali Yang
- Professor of Political Science and Faculty Director, Center in Beijing,
University of Chicago
Junsen
Zhang - Professor of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Moderator: Steven Durlauf - Professor of Economics, University of Wisconsin
12:30 - 14:15
Many developing countries have experienced rapid increases in GDP growth, and traditionally this was considered an adequate proxy for improved human welfare within these countries. However, in recent years some countries have experienced higher growth accompanied by environmental degradation, rising inequality and, social unrest. As a result, we are forced to ask what it is that constitutes real progress and development in a society.
James Heckman
- Henry Schultz Professor, University of Chicago
Sir James Alexander Mirlees - Professor and Master, Morningside College
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Moderator: A. Michael Spence - Academic Council Chairman, Fung Global Institute
14:30 - 15:45
EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING SESSION A FINANCIAL INSTABILITY WORKING GROUP
The INET program on financial instability and macroeconomics has developed a series of studies on dynamically unstable systems. Shadow banking instability, contagious network dynamics, and stock/flow interactive models will be discussed to showcase a series of research projects that are unfolding with INET support.
Dan
Awrey - University Lecturer in Law & Finance, University of Oxford
Co-Pierre Georg - Research Economist, The Research Center of
Deutsche Bundesbank
Arie
Krampf - Postdoctoral fellow, Freie Universität Berlin
Alberto
Russo - Assistant Professor of Economics, Università Politecnica delle
Marche
Moderator: Adair, Lord Turner - Chairman, Financial Services Administration
EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING SESSION B GROWTH AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
A key question for many countries is how to re-invigorate growth after the crisis. The INET@Oxford program is collaborating with an international group of scholars on new approaches to understanding economic growth and innovation from a complex systems and evolutionary perspective. This session will review recent work and discuss its potential implications for re-thinking public policy approaches to economic growth.
W.
Brian Arthur - External Professor, Santa Fe Institute and Visiting
Researcher, Intelligent Systems Lab, PARC
J. Doyne Farmer -
Co-Director, Complexity Economics, INET@Oxford
Luciano Pietronero - Director, Institute of Complex Systems, CNR and
Professor of Condensed Matter Physics, University Sapienza, Rome, Italy
Deborah Strumsky - Assistant Professor, Public Policy University
of North Carolina Charlotte
Moderator: Eric Beinhocker - Executive Director, INET@Oxford
16:00 - 17:30
When economies exhibit dreadful results is it because we have flawed understanding? Or are correct models often ignored? Are good economists listened to? Does scientifically robust work prevail when it conflicts with the desires of the powerful? What are the lessons of economic history for understanding the role of expertise in guiding social outcomes?
Norbert Haring - Correspondent, Handelsblatt
Steve Keen - Professor, University of Western Sydney
Robert Lord Skidelsky - Emeritus Professor, University of Warwick
Moderator: Robert Johnson – Executive Director, INET
17:30 - 18:30
18:30 - 20:30
Central banks across the planet are engaging in a robust agenda that would have been unrecognizable just a few years ago. Quantitative easing, macro prudential monitoring, asset market support in Europe have all made it much more difficult to understand what a central bank does and does not do.
Can central banks easily mop up liquidity and shrink their balance sheets when the world economy begins to recover, or will inflationary dynamics emerge? In the mystical realm of money, are central banks courting controversy that will threaten their credibility and stature within society? If they lose their leading role what will markets condition their expectation upon?
Charles Goodhart - Professor, London School of Economics
Richard Koo - Chief Economist of Nomura Research Institute
Liu Mingkang - Distinguished Fellow, Fung Global Institute
Adam Posen - President of the Peterson Institute for international
Economics
Moderator: Andrew Sheng - President, Fung Global Institute
20:30 - 21:00
I am here today.
I am at the Atlanta Fed today (on a panel). I'll post as I can.
Here's today's lineup:
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 24TH
09:30 - 11:00 Opening Ceremony // Welcome Address of German Federal President Christian Wulff // Induction Honorary Senate //
Plenary Panel Discussion "Sustainability in International Economics" with Laureates McFadden, Myerson, Stiglitz and Young Economists
11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break
11:30 - 12:00 Prof. Dr. Peter A. Diamond Economic Sciences Search and Macro
12:00 - 12:30 Prof. Dr. Christopher A. Pissarides Economic Sciences The Future of Work in Europe
12:30 - 14:30 Lunch Break
14:30 - 16:00 Panel "Demographic Change, Economics and Politics": Peter A. Diamond, Sir James A. Mirrlees, Christopher A. Pissarides, Edward C. Prescott (Chair: Martin Wolf, Financial Times)
16:30 - 18:00 Afternoon Discussions with Laureates Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides (for Laureates and Young Economists only)
20:00 - 22:00 Get-Together Evening at Congress Venue Inselhalle
The purpose of the meetings is to "provide a globally recognised forum for the exchange of knowledge between Nobel Laureates and young researchers." These young researchers -- at least the ones interested in macro -- are the ones who will be most likely to shake off the shackles of the past and develop new theories of the macroeconomy. So I'll be curious to see how that topic is handled. Will Stiglitz push hard in this direction and if so, how will the other Laureates, e.g. Phelps and Prescott, respond? Note that Prescott's abstract starts with "This is the golden age of aggregate economics." Stiglitz's abstract, on the other hand, begins with "The standard macroeconomic models have failed, by all the most important tests of scientific theory." Those two talks aren't until later in the week, but as I said I'll be very interested to see how this critical issue is presented to the upcoming generation of economists.
Update: I'm glad Stiglitz is here. In the opening panel, he began the discussion of macro models, and said (to applause) that macroeconomic models played a role in creating policies that caused the crisis. He also attacked austerity. Without him, there wouldn't be a strong advocate for these views at this meeting.
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