Worry about bread, not oil, by Niall Ferguson, Commentary, telegraph.co.uk [via]:
...Thomas Malthus ... published his Essay on the Principle of Population. [in
1798]... Malthus's key insight was simple but devastating. "Population, when
unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio," he observed. But "subsistence
increases only in an arithmetical ratio." In other words, humanity can increase
like the number sequence 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, whereas our food supply can increase no
faster than the number sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. We are, quite simply, much better
at reproducing ourselves than feeding ourselves.
Malthus concluded from this inexorable divergence between population and food
supply that there must be "a strong and constantly operating check on
population". This would take two forms: "misery" (famines and epidemics) and
"vice", by which he meant not only alcohol abuse but also contraception and
abortion (he was, after all, an ordained Anglican minister).
"The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation," wrote
Malthus in an especially doleful passage... "They are the precursors in the
great army of destruction; and often finish the dreadful work themselves.
"But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons,
epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their
thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic
inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the
population with the food of the world."
I wish I could have a free lunch for every time I've heard someone declare: "Malthus
was wrong." Superficially, it is true, mankind seems to have broken free of the
Malthusian trap. ...
The conventional explanation for our seeming escape from Malthus is the
succession of revolutions in global agriculture, culminating in the post-war
"Green Revolution" and the current wave of genetically modified crops.
Since the Fifties, the area of the world under cultivation has increased by
roughly 11 per cent, while yields per hectare have increased by 120 per cent.
... Yet these statistics don't disprove Malthus. As he said, food production
could increase only at an arithmetical rate, and a chart of world cereal yields
since 1960 shows just such a linear progression...
Meanwhile, vice and misery have been operating just as Malthus foresaw to
prevent the human population from exploding geometrically. On the one hand,
contraception and abortion have been employed to reduce family sizes. On the
other hand, wars, epidemics, disasters and famines have significantly increased
Together, vice and misery have ensured that the global population has grown
at an arithmetic rather than a geometric rate. Indeed, they've managed to reduce
the rate of population growth from 2.2 per cent per annum in the early Sixties
to around 1.1 per cent today.
The real question is whether we could now be approaching a new era of misery.
Even at an arithmetic rate, the United Nations expects the world's population to
pass the 9 billion mark by 2050.
But can world food production keep pace? Plant physiologist Lloyd T Evans has
estimated that "we must reach an average yield of four tons per hectare. to
support a population of 8 billion". But yields right now are ... just three tons
per hectare. And a world of eight billion people may be less than 20 years away.
Meanwhile, man-made forces are conspiring to put a ceiling on food
production. Global warming and the resulting climate change may well be
increasing the incidence of extreme weather events as well as inflicting
permanent damage on some farming regions.
... At the same time, our effort to slow global warming by switching from
fossil fuels to bio-fuels is taking large tracts of land out of food production.
According to the OECD, American output of corn-based ethanol and European
consumption of oilseeds for bio-fuels will double by 2016. ...
Some people worry about peak oil. I worry more about peak grain.
The fact is that world per capita cereal production has already passed its
peak, which was back in the mid-Eighties, not least because of collapsing
production in the former Soviet Union and sub-Saharan Africa. Simultaneously,
however, rising incomes in Asia are causing a surge in worldwide food demand.
Already the symptoms of the coming food shortage are detectable. The
International Monetary Fund recorded a 23 per cent rise in world food prices
during the last 18 months. ...
"The great question now at issue," Malthus asked more than 200 years ago, "is
whether man shall henceforth start forwards with accelerated velocity towards
illimitable, and hitherto unconceived improvement, or be condemned to a
perpetual oscillation between happiness and misery."
For a long time we have deluded ourselves that "illimitable improvement" was
attainable. As the world approaches a new era of dearth, expect misery - and its
old companion vice - to make a mighty Malthusian comeback.