Economist's View

The view from My (Rented) Window

This is the view from my window today, so I probably shouldn't spend all day inside blogging (though I do have grading I need to finish today).

Back later.

NBER Economic Fluctuations & Growth Research Meeting

I was supposed to be here today, but a long flight delay made that impossible. (I know better than to route through San Francisco in the fall -- it is often fogged in all morning -- but I took a chance and lost the bet.):

National Bureau of Economic Research
Economics Fluctuations & Growth Research Meeting
Paul Beaudry and John Leahy, Organizers
October 26, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of New York
10th Floor Benjamin Strong Room
33 Liberty Street New York, NY

Program

Thursday, October 25:

6:30 pm Reception and Dinner Federal Reserve Bank of New York (enter at 44 Maiden Lane) 1st Floor Dining Room

Friday, October 26:

8:30 am Continental Breakfast

9:00 am Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER Erik Hurst, University of Chicago and NBER Charles Jones, Stanford University and NBER Peter Klenow, Stanford University and NBER The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth Discussant:  Raquel Fernandez, New York University and NBER

10:00 am Break

10:30 am Fatih Guvenen, University of Minnesota and NBER Serdar Ozkan, Federal Reserve Board Jae Song, Social Security Administration The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk Discussant:  Jonathan Heathcote, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

11:30 am Loukas Karabarbounis, University of Chicago and NBER Brent Neiman, University of Chicago and NBER Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Savings Discussant:  Robert Hall, Stanford University and NBER

12:30 pm Lunch

1:30 pm Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Columbia University and NBER Martin Uribe, Columbia University and NBER Prudential Policy for Peggers Discussant:  Gianluca Benigno, London School of Economics

2:30 pm Break

3:00 pm Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates Discussant:  James Hamilton, University of California at San Diego and NBER

4:00 pm Alisdair McKay, Boston University Ricardo Reis, Columbia University and NBER The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle Discussant:  Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California at Berkeley and NBER

5:00 pm Adjourn

Cue The Jimmy Buffet Playlist

Tim Duy reports from French Polynesia:

Cue The Jimmy Buffet Playlist, by Tim Duy

He seems to like it.

Have Blog, Will Travel

Short travel day by train. Next stop: Lindau, Germany for this year's Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting dedicated to Physics.

Here's the program for the firsmorning:

09.00 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
Brian P. Schmidt: Observations, and the Standard Model of Cosmology

09.30 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
John C. Mather: Seeing Farther with New Telescopes

10.00 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
George F. Smoot: Mapping the Universe in Space and Time

11.00 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
Paul J. Crutzen: Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in the Anthropocene

11.30
Plenary Lecture
Main Hall
Mario J. Molina
The Science and Policy of Climate Change

12.00 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
Ivar Giaever: The Strange Case of “Global Warming”

12.30 Plenary Lecture Main Hall
Hartmut Michel: Photosynthesis, Biomass, Biofuels: Conversion Efficiencies and Consequences

I'm particularly interested in the sessions on climate change.

 

Elephant Underpass

Elephant populations are becoming increasingly fragmented:

Road to Recovery?, National Geographic: An African elephant approaches an underpass beneath the busy Nanyuki-Meru road in northern Kenya...

Photograph courtesy Lewa Wildlife Conservancy

The first of its kind for elephants, the underpass will ideally provide a safe corridor for the large mammals to move throughout the Mount Kenya region (map), where highways, fences, and farmlands have split elephant populations, according to Geoffrey Chege, chief conservation officer of the Lewa Wildlife Conservancy, a Kenya-based nonprofit.

Without the underpass, animals that try to move between isolated areas often destroy fences and crops—leading to conflicts with people.

Since its completion in late 2010, the underpass has been a "tremendous success"—hundreds of elephants have been spotted walking through the corridor...

Photograph courtesy Lewa Wildlife Conservancy

At first, only adult male elephants ventured through the underpass, and then only at night.

But before long whole family groups were passing through during the day...

Image courtesy Lewa Wildlife Conservancy

Currently the region's elephant populations are divided into two isolated groups: 2,000 animals in Mount Kenya and 7,500 in the Samburu-Laikipia ecosystem, according to the Lewa Wildlife Conservancy.

The elephant underpass ... could improve the genetic health of northern Kenya elephants, since more genes will mix as the animals move into various territories and find new mates.

The corridor may also mean that elephants will move around more, reducing pressure on habitats—and possibly helping other species that use the same resources, such as the black rhinoceros, according to the conservancy. ...

Have Blog, Will Travel

Just a quick note. I have a somewhat brutal travel schedule the next few days, and when all is said and done, I ought to be in Nairobi, Kenya:

IRP’s International Bloggers Take on Reproductive Health in Kenya: Twelve international bloggers have been selected to report on pressing issues of reproductive health and population in Kenya this month.

In an exciting new global initiative, the International Reporting Project (IRP) is taking a group of 12 influential bloggers from around the world to Kenya on June 17-26 for an in-depth examination of reproductive health and population issues in that East African country.

Watch the IRP website for regular updates from the bloggers, and follow them on Twitter as they recount their impressions and observations of Kenya. This is the first time in its 15-year history that the IRP is taking a group of new media journalists from different countries around the world to focus on a specific global issue. The 12 bloggers come from eight countries and represent a unique diverse set of specialties – including religion, ethics, culture, economics and gender issues in the developed world. In an intensive schedule that will take them to three different regions of Kenya, the bloggers will talk to Kenyan parents and children, health officials, rural and urban citizens and experts on gender, religion and ethics. Kenya’s population is expected to double by 2040 and the country faces major health challenges, urban migration and environmental pressures caused by this rapidly growing population. [list of participants]

They know that I am not an expert on women's reproductive health issues, though I will talk about related economic issues, but my main focus will be on economic problems in Kenya (I already have around 10 background posts set to go). And no, you aren't the first person to make an Obama joke.

After that, I'm going to this year's Nobel meetings in Lindau, Germany (the meetings bring Nobel laureates together with 500-600 graduate students from around the world). I'll stop over in Zurich for three days first, but since I was going through Zurich anyway on the way back from Kenya, I figured why not go to Lindau too -- it isn't very far away. I went last year when the topic was economics, but this year the Nobel winners are from chemistry and physics. Since it isn't economics I was surprised to be invited, and had to be accredited as press to get in (ha, I was), but there are issues related to economics, e.g. global warming that I want to cover. But mostly I'm looking forward to hearing talks on something other than economics. It will be a nice break, and for the most part I have no idea what I'll be hearing (or writing about).

Then, home for 4 days and off to Boston for an NBER meeting, and some other stuff. Finally home in late July.

I am going to do my best to keep up with the blog. I have at least two posts already loaded for each day of the time I'll be in Kenya, we have been promised internet access daily and some blogging time (though nothing like usual -- withdrawals!), and I have an unlocked iPhone that I hope to load with a sim chip and tons of prepaid data (from Safaricom). We'll see how that goes, but if it works I can (fingers crossed) tether to my computer and have fairly good internet access. But I have no idea what's ahead, and I hope you will understand if I am not able to keep up with links in particular on the usual, regular schedule. I'll try, but realistically it will be hard.

I never would have guessed that an economics blog would bring so much travel.

Ich Bin Ein Berliner

Long, long travel day today. Will post as I can.

Over the River and Through the Woods

Heading over the river and through the woods today, and hoping the snow on the pass doesn't stop me from getting to grandma's house.

[There are posts scheduled for later today.]

Travel

I'm traveling here today. I'll post as (and if) I can. (I have ten posts scheduled for the next several days just in case, mostly of the here's x saying y variety.)

Travel

I'm traveling here today. I'll post as (and if) I can.

Over the River and Through the Woods

Watching my daughter Amy run in the Eugene Marathon(update: 3:59:40, a PR) then traveling here (by car) -- will post as I can.

Intermittent Access

Long travel day today. Going here.

Day after Day

When I first started this blog, I had no expectations at all. I thought a few people might visit, family and acquaintances mostly, and I wasn't so sure about them, but nothing more than that. But, surprisingly to me, it slowly began gathering more and more visitors after some noteworthy help from other bloggers that brought it to people's attention. I was lucky to get that help, and entering the econoblogosphere earlier rather than later didn't hurt either.

As the number of visitors started growing, I became afraid that if I missed a day posting, the traffic growth would somehow stop, the regulars would go away, etc. I'm not sure what the fear was exactly looking back now, but being relatively risk averse I posted every day, always promising myself that once the traffic growth leveled off and things stabilized, I'd take a break. At least for a day or two.

As far as I can recall, I haven't missed a single day in the five and a third years that I've been doing this. Maybe there was a day somewhere, but I can't remember one. Mostly I don't mind, this has been the most surprising thing I've ever done and there's always something new and unexpected around the next corner, some good, some I'd rather not have to deal with, but it does pass the time. I have trouble pulling myself away from blogging rather than having to force myself to do it, but there are days now and again when posts are a bit forced and I tell myself that I really, really need a break from this. Especially, when, as lately, I find myself getting pretty cranky at small provocations (and the things I don't say...).

Traffic is still growing, though the pace has slowed, particularly since the financial crisis has eased, but the fear that somehow it would all evaporate if I miss a day or two, or whatever it was I was afraid of, is not as strong as it once was. But I still can't do it. I still can't bring myself to voluntarily miss a day (I know, I know).

However, I need to get away for a bit, at least from the usual surroundings. In part it's because I've agreed to be Associate Department Head for the next two years and that will keep me plenty busy. It's about to begin, so this is the last chance to get away before that happens.

So I am leaving Eugene today. Where am I going? I have no idea, I just decided to do this, so I am simply going to get in the car and see where I end up. The most likely direction initially is east, maybe south, but that's about all I know. I did this once before and it turned out well, so I'll just go where I feel like it each day and see what happens, starting with today.

I'll do my best to keep posting every day, but I may end up doing a lot of "echo" posts, i.e. a very short here's whatever followed by excerpts (as I do generally when time is short). I'll try to keep up on daily links. We'll see how it goes.

On the Road Again...

Traveling here today. Comments are open...