Saturday, August 23, 2014
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Posting the video mysteriously causes formatting problems for the blog, so took it down and replaced it with link to the video:
Chris Sims: Inflation, Fear of Inflation, and Public Debt
Friday, July 18, 2014
Thursday, June 05, 2014
Wednesday, May 28, 2014
I can't watch this, so have no idea how foolish I look, or not, or what parts of the interview they chose to include:
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
This panel brings together prominent economists to debate a range of issues with global scope: from inequality and emerging markets to austerity policies and the impact of technology on employment. This will be a free-ranging discussion focused on where the world is headed and what can be done to improve economies and people's lives everywhere.
- Speakers: Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics, Harvard University; Former Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund
- Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, Roubini Global Economics; Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University
- John Taylor, Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics, Stanford University; George P. Schultz Senior Fellow in Economics, Hoover Institution
- Moderator: Gerard Baker, Managing Editor, The Wall Street Journal; Editor-in-Chief, Dow Jones & Company
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
If you want a tutorial on how the political right responds to inequality and mobility concerns, this video is for you (Chrystia and Jared do their best to respond, and Jared has a nice summary of all of the potential causes of inequality in his opening remarks):
Income inequality has diminished in many parts of the world--Chile, Turkey, Mexico and Hungary being a few examples. But in America, the gap has widened. Ironically, the same forces may be responsible for both: globalization and technology, which have eased poverty in the developing world but led to the loss of unskilled but well-paying middle-class jobs in the United States and other developed nations. For the first time in nearly a century, the top 10 percent of American earners take home more than half the nation's income. New research suggests that it's harder than ever for the poor to move up into the middle and upper classes, an issue that has potential consequences for our economy, government, institutions and people. What can--or should--be done to narrow this disparity? Is education the key? With many Americans falling behind, these questions are stirring concern among policymakers and the business community as well. This panel will examine the magnitude of this complex challenge and strategies for reversing the trend.
- Speakers: Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Fellow, Milken Institute; Senior Fellow, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; Former Chief Economist to Vice President Joe Biden
- Edward Conard, Author, "Unintended Consequences"; Former Senior Managing Director, Bain Capital
- Robert Doar, Fellow in Poverty Studies, American Enterprise Institute; Former Commissioner, Human Resources Administration, City of New York
- Chrystia Freeland, Member of Parliament, Canada; Author, "Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else"
- Moderator: Alan Schwartz, Executive Chairman, Guggenheim Partners
This session, as I thought it would be before it started, was annoying:
America's Debt and the Economy: A Hard Look at Public Spending and Finance: With mandatory programs consuming 13.6 percent of GDP and rising, security spending at 5 percent, debt service at 1.5 percent (under benign interest-rate conditions), and revenue at 19 percent, there is little or no room in the nation's budget to fund the discretionary programs that support competitiveness and growth over the long term. That will require investment in infrastructure, technology, environmental protection, education and job training, among other areas. Despite the shutdowns and threats of default, both Republicans and Democrats understand that our future prosperity demands a responsible focus on these imperatives. But how can the government's budgeting process move beyond short-term fixes? This discussion will identify areas for strategic bipartisan collaboration to put the U.S. on track for meaningful reform, leading to the creation of a budget that better addresses our challenges and reflects our priorities.
- Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President, American Action Forum; Former Director, Congressional Budget Office; Former Chief Economist, Council of Economic Advisers
- Maya MacGuineas, President, Committee for Responsible Federal Budget
- Steven Rattner, Chairman, Willett Advisors; Former Counselor and Lead Auto Advisor to the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
- Gene Sperling, Former Director, National Economic Council, The White House
- Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor and Global Markets Editor, Fox Business Network
I heard things such as:
Need to get spending under control to create a good investment climate.
Large spending programs are crowding out discretionary programs such as defense and infrastructure.
One of the most serious issues we face.
Wait until rates go up.
Nobody in Washington is interested in talking about it.
We have to cut entitlements (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security).
Our economic growth is lower because of the debt. Our economy is worse off because of it.
Huge benefit right now from cutting deficit.
Anyone who is sensible would agree with us.
Neither Bush nor Obama has been willing to explain to the public what a huge problem the debt is.
We need to do this, it is an important thing for our children.
President needs to make this a national priority, like it did with income inequality.
With all the problems in the world, is now the time to be cutting defense spending?
Simpson Bowles was a very, very, very good plan.
You get the idea. There was very little about tradeoffs, e.g. higher unemployment when we reduce the debt during a not so robust recovery, though Sperling did address this a bit, not enough on revenue enhancement, and -- though it did come up at times -- the relationship between health care costs and our long-term debt problems was not made as clear as it should have been.
When it comes to recovering from the recession, these people are the problem, not the solution.
But maybe I'm just being cranky (and biased from the start) -- watch the video and tell me what you think...
Thursday, April 24, 2014
"The French economist Thomas Piketty discussed his new book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century at the Graduate Center. In this landmark work, Piketty argues that the main driver of inequality—the tendency of returns on capital to exceed the rate of economic growth—threatens to generate extreme inequalities that stir discontent and undermine democratic values. He calls for political action and policy intervention. Joseph Stiglitz, Paul Krugman, and Steven Durlauf participated in a panel moderated by Branko Milanovic."
Friday, April 18, 2014
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
This is worth watching:
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Information technologies and infrastructure play an increasingly important role in daily life. But at the same time, cyber security is becoming increasingly threatened. How does society deal with these conflicting challenges.
This keynote INET panel features speakers Steven Bellovin, Yvo Desmedt, Amir Hertzberg, and Bart Preneel, moderated by Thomas Ferguson.
Wednesday, April 09, 2014
Monday, April 07, 2014
For those of you who just can't get enough of Larry Summers (his talk starts at the 9:00 mark):
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Saturday, February 08, 2014
Wednesday, January 08, 2014
I can't watch myself, so have no idea if this is horrible or not, but in case it's of interest:
Sunday, December 08, 2013
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Since Larry Summers is all the rage these days, here he is on how history will view QE:
Saturday, November 09, 2013
Paul Krugman says to watch this tribute to Stan Fischer:
And here's PK's talk on Currency Regimes, Capital Flows, and Crises:
Monday, August 12, 2013
Central banks across the planet are engaging in a robust agenda that would have been unrecognizable just a few years ago. Quantitative easing, macro prudential monitoring, asset market support in Europe have all made it much more difficult to understand what a central bank does and does not do.
Can central banks easily mop up liquidity and shrink their balance sheets when the world economy begins to recover, or will inflationary dynamics emerge? In the mystical realm of money, are central banks courting controversy that will threaten their credibility and stature within society? If they lose their leading role what will markets condition their expectation upon?Charles Goodhart - Professor, London School of Economics (Paper)
Richard Koo - Chief Economist of Nomura Research Institute (Paper)
Liu Mingkang - Distinguished Fellow, Fung Global Institute
Adam Posen - President of the Peterson Institute for international Economics
Moderator: Andrew Sheng - President, Fung Global Institute
[NGDP targeting fans may be interested in what Goodhart has to say.]
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Monday, May 20, 2013
Note: The video starts around the 43 minute mark
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
I thought this session on electronic payments was interesting:
The Future of Money: What's in Your Digital Wallet?
Tuesday, April 30, 2013 9:30 AM - 10:30 AM
- Eric Dunn, Senior Vice President, Commerce Network Solutions, Intuit
- Paul Galant, CEO, Citi Enterprise Payments
- Mark Lavelle, Senior Vice President, Strategy and Business Development, PayPal
- Ed McLaughlin, Chief Emerging Payments Officer, MasterCard
Moderator: Lauren Lyster, Co-Host, "Daily Ticker," Yahoo! Finance
Money is by nature symbolic - representing the erratic value of goods and services - but will it become entirely electronic? Some digital evangelists, touting the frictionlessness of cashlessness, think so. E-transactions are burgeoning along with the capabilities and reach of the Internet. Software engineering has fused with financial engineering and online communities are creating new forms of digital currency. Yet cash in circulation is also rising. Hand-held currency is an easy, uncomplicated means to know what you have and get what you want, which is all the more appealing in an era of economic insecurity and bitcoin chaos. Why rely on intermediaries and invisible transactions? Why trust if one can't readily verify? This panel will explore the forces that are changing money and, at the same time, keeping it in its traditional forms.
This shouldn't be overly surprising, but Nouriel Roubini is pessimistic about the global economy (bubble/boom for two years, then a big crash):
Lunch Panel: Global Overview
Monday, April 29, 2013 12:00 PM - 1:45 PM
Introduction By: Michael Klowden, CEO, Milken Institute
- Pierre Beaudoin, President and CEO, Bombardier Inc.
- Scott Minerd, Managing Partner and Global Chief Investment Officer, Guggenheim Partners
- Nouriel Roubini, Chairman and Co-Founder, Roubini Global Economics; Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York University
- Geraldine Sundstrom, Partner and Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Strategies Master Fund Limited, Brevan Howard
Moderator: Paul Gigot, Editorial Page Editor and Vice President, The Wall Street Journal
As mid-2013 comes into view, the crisis sparked by the international mortgage meltdown is receding into memory, spreading a sense of relief. In the eurozone, the debate is about austerity versus spending, but not dissolution. Meanwhile, living conditions are rising in many parts of the globe as millions join a swelling middle class. The expanding availability of healthcare could have a profound effect as well. Yet some regions continue to struggle. In our annual big-picture look at the world economy, we'll discuss whether China and the U.S. can pull other players along and how the debt bomb can be defused. What are the most potent trends steering capital markets? Which industries are rising, which are fading, and what governments are demonstrating they know how to solve problems? Can the flare-up in the Middle East be contained and give way to democracy and economic growth?
Saturday, April 06, 2013
Here's the video I mentioned in the post "Is China's Growth Model Sustainable":
The Chinese economy has developed at a remarkable pace over the last 30 years. The integration of China into the world economy has led to extraordinary flows of foreign direct investment, infrastructure buildup, and an impressive export capacity. As we look to the future, both domestic and international considerations bear on the capacity for China to continue on this robust course and for the world to adjust to China’s growth and changed role. The differences in philosophical, legal, and governance systems between China and the West suggest that the challenges will be formidable and that cooperation and mutual benefit will require extraordinary attention.
- Daniel A. Bell - Professor, Tsinghua University
- Jan Kregel - Senior scholar at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
- Huang Yiping - Professor of Economics, National School of Development, Peking University
- Yu Yongding - Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, CASS
- Moderator: Xiao Geng - Director of Research and Senior Fellow, Fung Global Institute
Friday, April 05, 2013
I went to a different breakout session, but heard very good things about this one on "psychological considerations in economics":
Many of our global problems – from climate change to financial crises – arise from people’s failure to cooperate adequately to achieve socially desirable outcomes. There is a widespread recognition that we need a deeper understanding of human nature in order to discern new opportunities for human cooperation. The Kiel Institute and the Max Planck Institute in Leipzig are developing an interdisciplinary program with INET to examine new avenues of how psychological and neuroscientific knowledge about human motivation, emotion and social cognition can inform models of economic decision making. How can a profounder understanding of human motivation and preferences lead to a broader appreciation of our prospects for pro-social and sustainable economic behaviors?
- David Tuckett - Training and Supervising Analyst in the British Psychoanalytical Society
- Inske Pirschel - Research Assistant, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel
- Gert Pönitzsch - Research Assistant, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
- Cars Hommes - Professor of Economics Universiteit van Amsterdam
- Moderator: Dennis Snower - President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Adair Turner calls for "overt monetary finance":
Saturday, March 02, 2013
Greg Mankiw's post today reminds me that I meant to post this interview with Emmanuel Saez on "taxing away inequality":
Taxing Away Inequality, Interview by David Grusky: David Grusky: In the thirteen years since you secured your PhD, there have been two big developments: first, your research on income inequality, especially its recent takeoff, has taken the world by storm. And, second, the national conversation about income inequality has completely shifted. In fact in the last presidential election it was one of the key topics. I would argue that those two developments are related in the sense that you’re the one, more than anyone else, who has brought about precisely that change in the national conversation.
That said, I suspect that there are some features of your work that you think have been misunderstood or, at the least, inadequately addressed in current debates about inequality. Could you talk a bit about this underappreciated side of your work?
Emmanuel Saez: I did this key work on income concentration in the United States with my colleague Thomas Piketty, and we were indeed quite surprised by how successful our research has been in the public debate. Initially this was really academic work building on the long tradition of the famous economist Simon Kuznets, who started the data series back in the 1950s. So we never approached it in a way that would necessarily be easy for the broader public and the press to use. We had to adjust over time to try to talk to the public and present our findings in a way that was the simplest, because we’ve discovered that to have an impact in the broader world, the way you present your research—the design, the framing—has a tremendous impact.
Naturally the public has focused mostly on the very recent period. But the key goal of our study was to show a very long perspective—a century long perspective—and to think about long-term changes rather than year-to-year changes. And I think there’s a lot to learn about how those long-term changes are related to policy making and government action.
DG: I’m prompted by your last point to suggest that another underappreciated feature of your work is that it delivers rather provocative hints about the causes of the increase in inequality. That is, it not only lays out the descriptive trajectory of income inequality, but also suggests what’s driving that descriptive trajectory.
We participated in a Boston Review debate on one account of the sources of the recent takeoff, namely the expansion of rent, where rent is understood as sweetheart deals, corruption, backdating stock option contracts—all sorts of pay-setting practices that permit those at the top to secure more than they would in a competitive market. On the basis of your research, do you think that rent is an important source of the recent growth in income inequality?
ES: If we define rent in terms of situations where pay doesn’t correspond to what economists call ‘marginal productivity’—that is, the economic contribution a person is providing—I would say yes, because the evolution of income concentration over time and across countries has a number of features that are inconsistent with the story where pay is everywhere equal to productivity. The changes in income concentration are just too abrupt and too closely correlated with policy developments for the standard story about pay equaling productivity to hold everywhere. That is, if pay is equal to productivity, you would think that deep economic changes in skills would evolve slowly and make a gradual difference in the distribution—but what we see in the data are very abrupt changes. Basically all western countries had very high levels of income concentration up to the first decades of the 20th century and then income concentration fell dramatically in most western countries following the historical narrative of each country. For example, in the United States the Great Depression followed by the New Deal and then World War II. And I could go on with other countries. Symmetrically, the reversal—that is, the surge in income concentration in some but not all countries—follows political developments closely. You see the highest increases in income concentration in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, following precisely what has been called the Reagan and Thatcher revolutions: deregulation, cuts in top tax rates, and policy changes that favored upper-income brackets. You don’t see nearly as much of an increase in income concentration in countries such as Japan, Germany, or France, which haven’t gone through such sharp, drastic policy changes. ...[continue]...
There's also, as Greg notes, a video:
Emmanuel Saez discusses income equality at Stanford’s Center for Ethics in Society. (Jan. 24, 2013)
Monday, January 28, 2013
The Future of the American Public Sector
Friday, January 11, 2013
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Friday, November 16, 2012
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Saturday, October 06, 2012
Something to watch -- if you're so inclined -- while I try to come up with something to post:
And, for more video, Stiglitz on Up With Chris.
Friday, September 07, 2012
Monday, July 09, 2012
Via Brad DeLong, here's the schedule of speakers:
John Ellwood: 00:55
Jesse Choper: 15:00
Steve Shortell: 30:30
Brad DeLong: 45:50
Ann O'Leary: 55:30
Ann Marie Marciarille: 1:07:33
General Questions: 1:19:40
Wednesday, May 02, 2012
I missed this session, but I hear that the interaction between Niall Ferguson and Steven Rattner, among others, was, shall we say, lively (if you don't want to hear "Ferguson’s fury: Harvard historian decries female welfare recipients" then you should probably skip this one):
What's Happened to the American Dream?, Tuesday, May 1, 2012, 12:15 - 2:00 PM
- Niall Ferguson, Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History, Harvard University; Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
- Jeff Greene, Investor and Philanthropist
- Charles Murray, W.H. Brady Scholar, American Enterprise Institute; Author, "Coming Apart: The State of White America"
- Steven Rattner, Chairman, Willett Advisors; former Counselor and Lead Auto Advisor to the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
Tuesday, May 01, 2012
The words "private sector," "education," and "regulatory uncertainty" play a starring role in this session on job creation (this was one of the more annoying sessions I attended, especially towards the end when Richard Fisher elevates teaching Congress a lesson over job creation - he says low interest rate policy allows Congress to escape accountability, and stopping that comes first):
Jobs for America Monday, April 30, 2012 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM
- John Engler, President, Business Roundtable; former Governor, State of Michigan
- Richard Fisher, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
- Javier Palomarez, President and CEO, U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
- Rafael Pastor, Chairman and CEO, Vistage International Inc.
- Zachary Karabell, Senior Fellow, Milken Institute; President, River Twice Research
Monday, April 30, 2012
Update: Paul Krugman comments:
Don’t Know Much About (Ancient) History: The things I do for book sales. I debated, sort of, Ron Paul on Bloomberg.Video here. I thought we might have a discussion of why the runaway inflation he and his allies keep predicting keeps not happening. But no, he insisted (if I understood him correctly) that currency debasement and price controls destroyed the Roman Empire. I responded that I am not a defender of the economic policies of the Emperor Diocletian.
Actually, though, appeals to what supposedly happened somewhere in the distant past are quite common on the goldbug side of economics. And it’s kind of telling.
I mean, history is essential to economic analysis. You really do want to know, say, about the failure of Argentina’s convertibility law, of the effects of Chancellor Brüning’s dedication to the gold standard, and many other episodes.
Somehow, though, people like Ron Paul don’t like to talk about events of the past century, for which we have reasonably good data; they like to talk about events in the dim mists of history, where we don’t really know what happened. And I think that’s no accident. Partly it’s the attempt of the autodidact to show off his esoteric knowledge; but it’s also the fact that because we don’t really know what happened — what really did go down during the Diocletian era? — you can project what you think should have happened onto the sketchy record, then claim vindication for whatever you want to believe.
It’s funny, in a way — except that this sort of thinking dominates one of our two main political parties.
The Future of Capitalism Monday, April 30, 2012 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM
- Niall Ferguson, Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History, Harvard University; Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
- Ana Palacio, Member, Spanish Council of State; former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Spain
- Peter Passell, Senior Fellow, Milken Institute; Editor, The Milken Institute Review
- Raghuram Rajan, Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
- James McCaughan, CEO, Principal Global Investors
- Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Fellow, Milken Institute; Senior Fellow, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; former Chief Economist to Vice President Joe Biden
- Steve Forbes, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief, Forbes Media
- William Gale, Director, Retirement Security Project, Brookings Institution; Co-Director, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
- Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President, American Action Forum; former Director, Congressional Budget Office; former Chief Economist, Council of Economic Advisors
- Bradley Belt, Senior Managing Director, Milken Institute
Update: Richard Green:
I am watching the Milken Global Conference panel on tax reform, and I want to shout: ...the reason fewer people are paying federal income taxes is that more people are making low incomes.
Where Will Economic Growth Come From? Monday, April 30, 2012
8:00 AM - 9:15 AM
- Willem Buiter, Chief Economist, Citigroup
- Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman, CME Group Inc.
- Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, PIMCO
- Kevin Warsh, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution, and former Member, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC
Sunday, April 29, 2012
These videos are from the recent INET conference in Berlin:
Taking Stock of Complexity Economics: Which Problems Does It Illuminate?
- Thomas Homer-Dixon, Director, Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation, University of Waterloo [On Farmer Video]
- Doyne Farmer, Professor at Santa Fe Institute. Presentation Video
- Ricardo Hausmann, Professor of the Practice of Economic Development, Harvard University. Presentation Video
- Mauro Gallegati, Professor of Economics, Polytechnic University of Marche, Ancona. Paper / Presentation Video
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Professor of Physics, École Polytechnique. Presentation Video
- Q&A Video
Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on the Context? Balance Sheet Overhangs, Open Economy Leakages, and Idle Resources
- Giancarlo Corsetti, Professor of Macroeconomics, University of Cambridge. Presentation Video
- Steven Fazzari, Professor of Economics, Washington University in St Louis. Paper / Presentation Video
- Atif Mian, Joe Shoong Chair in International Business, Haas School of Business,University of California at Berkeley. Presentation Video
- Q&A Video
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Monday, April 16, 2012
Keynote Address at INET's Paradigm Lost
Managing the Global Commons
Creating a Socially Useful Financial System
Instability in Financial Markets
Inequality and the Challenge of Employment
Where do we go from here?
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Keynote Address: What Matters: Fundamental Challenges and Self Inflicted Wounds
Keynote Address: Reflections on the Politics of Deficit Reduction
Debt: Inflation and Austerity
Debt: The Politics and Economics of Restructuring
Is Mercantilism Doomed to Fail?
The Future of Europe
Saturday, December 10, 2011
[Note: Video starts just after the 10 minute mark, lectures start just after the 16:30 mark. Video link from Steven Kinsella who says "Tom Sargent’s Nobel lecture compares the formation of the US fiscal and monetary union by Alexander Hamilton to the current experience in Europe. Well worth watching..."]