While we wait for the second quarter GDP report and the outcome of the FOMC meeting, you can amuse yourself watching Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute desperately clinging to his call that a recession started in the middle of 2012:
A reminder of the high-frequency data employed in recession dating:
I am not saying its the most exciting data, but it still isn't a recession. Achuthan is apparently clinging to a thin reed of hope that every major data series is revised substantially downward. Given the low expectations for the second quarter GDP report, personally I would hold out hope for a surprise negative print. I still don't think the NBER would see such an outcome as anything more than a one quarter aberration, but I suspect it is Achuthan's best hope at this point.