These are from David Altig at macroblog and are based on the programs and data given at the end (click on the figures for larger versions). David is part of the research division at the Cleveland Fed. They are the probabilities, based upon futures markets, of rate hikes at the next few FOMC meetings:
macroblog: Funds Rate Probabilities: Locking In 5, By David Altig The big move of the week in the Carlson-Craig-Melick estimates of market expectations for the federal funds rate path was not in the March meeting, where there wasn't much room to move in the first place...
... but in the May meeting, where another 25 basis points is now being priced in the options market as a dead cinch:
Sentiments in the direction of yet another move at the June meeting ran hot and cold over the week:
I'll declare that race wide open.
The usual data...
Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_031006.ppt
Download implied_pdf_march_031006.xls
Download implied_pdf_may_031006.xls
Download implied_pdf_june_031006.xls... and a new item the menu, the pictures in flash format:
Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_031006.swf
