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October 31, 2007
October 29, 2007
Class Materials for Lecture 10
Brief Outline of Topics Covered in Lecture 10
Chapter 20 The IS-LM Model
- The LM Curve
- Derive LM curve from money demand - money supply diagram
- Shifts in the LM curve
- Equilibrium
- Stability of equilibrium
Chapter 21 Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the IS-LM Model
- Changes in the equilibrium values of output and the interest rate
- Monetary policy in the IS-LM model
- Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model
Materials from class:
Video:
Lecture 10 [Google video] - Fall 2007
Lecture 10 [Media Player] - Fall 2007
| Economics 470 Lecture 10 |
|
Previous (these were taped outside of class):
Lecture 10 - Chapter 20, pgs. 531-535; Chapter 21, pgs. 539-546
Google Video
Additional Reading:
- Monitoring the euro area economy in real-time - Vox EU
- The economic impacts of climate change policy - Environmental Economics
- IMF reform: a marathon, not a sprint - Vox EU
- US private equity groups in China talks - FT.com
- Sugar’s Sweetheart Deal - NY Times
- The AMT Must Go - Charles Rangel
- Political Scientists Discover New Form Of Government - The Onion
- Fed concern at expectation of rate cut - FT.com
- Don’t believe the hype: renminbi flexibility - Vox EU
- Q&A With St. Louis Fed's Poole - WSJ Economics Blog
- Oil price movements in other currencies - Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
- What Kind of Caution by the Fed This Time? - New York Times
- Some housing pictures - Paul Krugman - Blog
- Predators and parasites may increase evolutionary stability - EurekAlert
- Dozens of Species of Primates Are Under Threat - New York Times
- Why is oil above $90? - Econbrowser
- Do We Have an Inventory Problem? - Economics Blog
- New ideas about human migration from Asia to Americas - EurekAlert
- Cap-and-trade bill is second-rate - Los Angeles Times
- Subprime Roadmap Laid Out in Gramlich's Last Act - Gene Sperling
- World's hottest chile pepper discovered - EurekAlert
Application:
Tim makes a contrarian call on the outcome of the Fed's rate setting meeting:
And So It Begins, by Tim Duy: The Fed begins a two-day meeting today, with market participants widely expecting a rate cut. I am mentally prepared to be on the wrong side of this call, joining the lonely few, but I just can’t tease another rate cut out of the incoming data.
In my mind, the argument for a rate cut hinges on one crucial assumption – that the market is expecting a rate cut, and the Fed will not want to disappoint. From Bloomberg:
''The Fed is reluctant to ease,'' says Louis Crandall, chief economist at Jersey City, New Jersey-based Wrightson ICAP LLC, a unit of ICAP Plc, the world's largest broker for banks and other financial institutions. ''But it also doesn't want to unsettle the financial markets unnecessarily.''
If the Fed fails to ease, so the story goes, they will be blamed for failure to communicate effectively. After all, given their push for transparency, shouldn’t they make an effort to send a signal when the markets are headed in the wrong direction? The problem with this view is that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke does not believe it is his job to lead markets around by the nose like his predecessor. I think under the new regime, the Fed expects their comments to be taken at face value. And I think they are pretty effectively communicating their view on the economy: Outside of housing, there is minimal spillover, and whatever spillover exists is completely expected. From Bernanke on October 15 (italics mine):
October 24, 2007
Class Materials for Lecture 9
Brief Outline of Topics Covered in Lecture 9
Chapter 20 The IS-LM Model
- Review of the expenditure function and the 45 degree line diagram
- Consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports
- Autonomous expenditures
- The MPC
- The expenditure function and equilibrium in the 45 degree line diagram
- The expenditure multiplier
- The IS curve
- Investment and the interest rate
- Net exports and the interest rate
- Derive the IS curve from 45 degree line diagram
Materials from class:
Video:
Lecture 9 [Google video] - Fall 2007 - Note: I'm having trouble with Google video. I've been trying to get the videos uploaded for three days without success (which is why they are being posted later than usual). I will keep trying...
Lecture 9 [Media Player] - Fall 2007
| Economics 470 Lecture 9 |
|
Previous (these were taped outside of class):
Lecture 9 - Chapter 20, pgs. 513-531
Google Video
Additional Reading:
- Should the Fed Target Asset Prices - WSJ Economics Blog
- Home improvement - Dean Baker
- Why Credit-rating Agencies Blew It: Mystery Solved - Robert Reich
- Europe Tries to Attract Migrants It Prefers - New York Times
- Solution to Energy and Climate Crises? - Scientific American
- House price bubbles made in Europe - Daniel Gros - Vox EU
Application:
Tim Duy is losing sleep:
Runaway Rate Cut Train?, by Tim Duy: I agonize over this stuff. Constantly. And it is not really part of my job. Just can’t get it out of my mind.
It is even more agonizing when expectation flip-flop so strongly, from rate cut to no rate cut back to rate cut certainty. From the Cleveland Fed:
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech kicked off a shift in expectations, reinforced by additional Fed speakers. The ongoing risk management theme was reiterated by new Chicago Fed President Charles Evans:
To me, the uncertainties about how financial conditions might evolve and affect the real economy mean that risk management considerations have an important role in the current policy environment…However, there is a less benign possibility. Housing demand and prices could weaken a good deal more than we expect — either because a new shock hits the sector or because we have underestimated the weakness already in train….
I want to emphasize that I do not see this extreme outcome as likely. But it is one of those high cost outcomes that we should guard against. The challenge is to calibrate the insurance in light of the lower probability of the spillover event occurring.
The upshot of such speeches has been to entrench expectations that as long as housing is deteriorating, the downside risks to the economy are too great to be ignored, and therefore rate cuts will continue regardless of the relatively minimal impact the housing downturn has had on the rest of the economy. Still unsteady credit markets argue further for additional cutting.
October 22, 2007
Class Materials for Lecture 8
Brief Outline of Topics Covered in Lecture 8
Chapter 19 Money Demand
- Further Developments in the Keynesian Approach
- Why Transactions demand depends upon i (Baumol)
- Tobin's Uncertainty Theory
- Friedman’s Modern Quantity Theory of Money
Materials from class:
Video:
Lecture 8 [Google video] - Fall 2007
Lecture 8 [Media Player] - Fall 2007
| Economics 470 Lecture 8 |
|
Previous (these were taped outside of class):
Lecture 8 - Chapter 19, pgs. 501-510
Google Video
Additional Reading:
- Come with Me to the FOMC, Remarks by Governor Laurence H. Meyer, Willamette University
- Poole Sees Improvement but Says Threat Remains - WSJ Economics Blog
- Deflation in Japan: worse than you think - Vox EU
- Microsoft Concedes in European Antitrust Case - New York Times
- Agricultural Trade Reforms - Vox EU
- How to encourage the road-to-rail shift in Europe - Vox EU
- Poor Countries Wag Fingers at Rich Ones - New York Times
- Will the Bottom Billion Ever Catch Up? - washingtonpost.com
- Greenspan questions 'superfund' - FT.com
- IMF fails to make progress on reforms - FT.com
- Some firms replace offshoring with onshoring - Los Angeles Times
- In Search of Wireless Wiggle Room - New York Times
- St. Louis Fed Monetary Policy Conference
- Monetary Policy under Uncertainty - FRB: Speech--Bernanke
- Rules versus discretion in monetary policy - Econbrowser
- The Econoblogosphere is Not in Danger - Finance Blog - Felix Salmon
- Exotic I.R.A.’s: Leaving Stocks and Bonds Behind - New York Times
- Nobel Prize: What is mechanism design and why does it matter? - Vox EU
- Study: Housing Boom Has Limited Effect on Growth - WSJ Economics Blog
Application:
This is a speech by Ben Bernanke on conducting monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty of various types (Bill Poole is president of the St. Louis Fed, we will learn about "Pooles Rules" for conducting monetary policy later in the course):
Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, by Ben Bernanke: Bill Poole's career in the Federal Reserve System spans two decades separated by a quarter of a century. From 1964 to 1974 Bill was an economist on the staff of the Board's Division of Research and Statistics. He then left to join the economics faculty at Brown University, where he stayed for nearly twenty-five years. Bill rejoined the Fed in 1998 as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, so he is now approaching the completion of his second decade in the System.
As it happens, each of Bill's two decades in the System was a time of considerable research and analysis on the issue of how economic uncertainty affects the making of monetary policy, a topic on which Bill has written and spoken many times. I would like to compare the state of knowledge on this topic during Bill's first decade in the System with what we have learned during his most recent decade of service. The exercise is interesting in its own right and has the added benefit of giving me the opportunity to highlight Bill's seminal contributions in this line of research.
October 20, 2007
October 17, 2007
Class Materials for Lecture 7
Brief Outline of Topics Covered in Lecture 7
Chapter 19 Money Demand
- Quantity Theory of Money
- Velocity of Money and Equation of Exchange
- Quantity Theory
- Quantity Theory of Money Demand
- The Cambridge Approach
- Is velocity a Constant?
- Keynes’s Liquidity Preference Theory
- Transactions Motive
- Precautionary Motive
- Speculative Motive
- Putting the Three Motives Together
- Further Developments in the Keynesian Approach
Materials from class:
Video:
Lecture 7 [Google video] - Fall 2007
Lecture 7 [Media Player] - Fall 2007
| Economics 470 Lecture 7 |
|
Previous (these were taped outside of class):
Lecture 7 - Chapter 19, pgs. 493-500
Google Video
Additional Reading:
- The brave new world of state capitalism - Martin Wolf
- Foreign investors slash holdings of US securities - FT.com
- Text of Paulson's Remarks on Housing - WSJ Economics Blog
- Some at Fed Favored A Smaller Rate Cut - WSJ.com
- Can the Fed Deflate Market Bubbles? - WSJ Economics Blog
- South America creates regional bank, sign of ending Bretton Woods - Rybinski
- Recent Financial Turmoil and its Economic and Policy Consequences - Bernanke
- Bernanke sees better near-term outlook - FT.com
- China hikes bank reserve rate to 13% - China Daily
- Their own private S&Ls - Paul Krugman - Blog
- Fed Won't Cut Again Unless Data Show It's Needed - John M. Berry
- John Taylor's Contributions - Fisher - FRB Dallas
- Contributions of John Taylor - FRB: Speech--Bernanke
- The Roles of the Federal Reserve - FRB: Speech--Kroszner
- John Taylor’s Contributions - Yellen - FRB SF
- Explaining the T-bond 'conundrum' - New Economist
- Monetary policy transparency - what impact? - New Economist
- Real Estate, Financial Markets, and the Economy - FRBB Speeches
- Harvard scientists predict the future of the past tense - EurekAlert
- American lawbreaking: How laws die. - Tim Wu - Slate
- Blogonomics: Paying for Content - Finance Blog - Felix Salmon
- Discrimination: Evidence from Internet-based CV Database - Journal of Interest
- The Great Cosmic Roller-Coaster Ride - Scientific American
- EMU and inequality: the facts - Vox EU
- Hooked on whales - International Herald Tribune
- Money Can't Buy You Taste - The Borjas Blog
- Stretching the Search for Signs of Life - New York Times
- Study finds that people are programmed to love chocolate - EurekAlert
- Hypertime -- why we need 2 dimensions of time - EurekAkert
- Genes influence people's choices in economics game - MIT News Office
Application:
This is from the WSJ. It's about whether Fed policy encourages excessive risk-taking [discussion of Koenig version of Taylor rule discussed below]:
Fed Policy and Moral Hazard, by Harvey Rosenblum, WSJ: Accusations of moral hazard have been tossed around quite a bit since the Federal Reserve lowered the federal-funds rate by half a percentage point a month ago today. Moral hazard, if you're neither an actuary nor a practitioner of the "dismal science," occurs when investors or property owners are protected from the downside risks of bad investment decisions, thus encouraging them to take still more unwise risks in the future.
![[Chart]](http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/ED-AG555A_rosen_20071017181643.gif)
As entertaining as this discussion of the nexus between the Federal Reserve and moral hazard has been, the analysis is incomplete because it lacks one key element -- something called the Taylor Rule. The namesake of this bit of economic wisdom is John Taylor, perhaps the best scholar on monetary policy in our times. His rule, a description of monetary policy decision-making formulated a decade and a half ago, has a good deal of relevance to any discussion of Fed policy and moral hazard.
So what exactly is Taylor's Rule? Put simply, it prescribes higher interest rates when inflation crosses certain thresholds and the economy is near full employment; and lower rates when the opposite is true. When these goals are in conflict the Rule provides guidance on how to adjust rates accordingly.
But before we get to why Mr. Taylor's work matters, we've got to better understand moral hazard, which, as Mr. Bernanke defined it in a textbook he coauthored, is "the tendency of people to expend less effort protecting those goods that are insured against theft and damage."
Why has moral hazard reared its head after the Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates at a time of turmoil and uncertainty in financial markets?
October 14, 2007
October 11, 2007
October 10, 2007
Class Materials for Lecture 6
Brief Outline of Topics Covered in Lecture 6
Chapter 14 Determinants of the Money Supply
The Money Supply Model and the Money Multiplier
- Deriving the Money Multiplier
Factors That Determine the Money Multiplier
- Changes in the Required Reserve Ratio, r
- Changes in the Currency Ratio, c = C/D
- Changes in the Excess Reserves Ratio, e = ER/D
Additional Factors That Determine the Money Supply
- Changes in the Nonborrowed Monetary Base, MBn
- Changes in Borrowed Reserves, BR, from the Fed
Chapter 15 Tools of Monetary Policy
The Market for Reserves and the Federal Funds Rate
- Supply and Demand in the Market for Reserves
- How Open Market Operations, Discount Lending, and Changes in Reserve Requirements Affect the Federal Funds Rate
Open Market Operations
- Daily Conduct
- Advantages of Open Market Operations
Discount Policy
- Operations of the Discount Window
- Lender of Last Resort
- Advantages and Disadvantages of Discount Policy
Reserve Requirements
- Disadvantages of Reserve Requirements
Materials from class:
Video:
Lecture 6 [Google video] - Fall 2007
Lecture 6 [Media Player] - Fall 2007
| Economics 470 Lecture 6 |
|
Previous (these were taped outside of class):
Lecture 6 - Chapter 14, pgs. 351-367; Chapter 15, pgs. 373-389
Google Video
Additional Reading:
- Regulatory Relief for Banking Organizations (eliminating open market operations)
- EU plans market reforms to avert crisis - FT.com
- Recent Financial Developments and the Economic Outlook -Yellen - SF Fed
- Real Estate in the U.S. Economy - Poole - St. Louis Fed
- FOMC minutes show unity on rate cut - FT.com
- Banks that say "sorry," and the investors who love them too much - D. Gross
- NASA: major step toward knowing origin of cosmic rays - EurekAlert
- Cassini on the trail of a runaway mystery - EurekAlert
- Fed Left Plans for Further Cuts Dependent on Data - Bloomberg
- Herding aphids -- how 'farmer' ants keep control of their food - EurekAlert
- There May Be an Out for Some Subprime Borrowers: John M. Berry
Application:
John Berry says there may be hopeful news on the subprime crisis:
There May Be an Out for Some Subprime Borrowers, by John M. Berry, Bloomberg: The subprime mortgage market is largely a mystery to most of the public, and to many of the public officials trying to find ways to mitigate the damage done to borrowers caught up in it. ...
Helping owners already faced with the possibility of foreclosure requires knowing how the problems developed, which is why Eric S. Rosengren, president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, initiated a project to gather data on the subprime market in New England and what has happened to the people who used such mortgages. ...
What the Boston Fed researchers have found so far has convinced Rosengren that many of the troubled homeowners may qualify for a prime loan that could be profitable for community banks in the region if they are willing to go after the business. ...
October 08, 2007
Class Materials for Lecture 5
Brief Outline of Topics Covered in Lecture 5
Chapter 13 Multiple Deposit Creation and the Money Supply Process
Control of the Monetary Base
- Open Market Operations with Bank
- Open Market Operations with an Individual and shifts between Currency and Deposits
- Discount Loans
- Overview of the Fed’s Ability to Control the Monetary Base
Multiple Deposit Creation: A Simple Model
- Deposit Creation
- Deriving the Formula for Multiple Deposit Creation
- Critique of the Simple Model
Materials from class:
Chalk only today.
Video:
Lecture 5 [Google video] - Fall 2007
Lecture 5 [Media Player] - Fall 2007
| Economics 470 Lecture 5 |
|
Previous (these were taped outside of class):
Lecture 5 - Chapter 13, pgs. 340-347
Google Video
Additional Reading:
- Economic Outlook - FRB: Speech, Kohn
- Financial Stability and the Federal Reserve - FRB Speech, Warsh
- Inflation Measurement and Price Volatility - Richard Fisher - FRB Dallas
- Outdated tax policy - Edward L. Glaeser - The Boston Globe
- The Rubin-Bernanke Phone Call - Felix Salmon
- A better way to organise securities markets - FT.com
- Daily Fed Open Market Operations: The Pattern of Fed Liquidity Provision
- More Tools the Fed Can Use to Inject Liquidity
Application:
1. The market is split between holding the federal funds rate at 4.75%, and cutting another quarter to 4.50% when the FOMC meets on October 30 and 31 [source]:
2. Estimating Potential Output
This is a very nice summary of how economists measure the economy's maximum sustainable level of output from Mishkin.
The term "maximum sustainable level of output" is a better description of what we are trying to measure than the more common terms such "potential output" or "full employment." Let me try an example to illustrate. For a graduate student, over the course of an entire quarter, there is a certain maximum sustainable level of effort. It might be, say, 14 hours of class and study per day on average. That is "full employment" or "potential output." But in the short-run it's possible to exceed that level of output. Right before a test students can work 20+ hours a day, more than full employment, but such a level of output is not sustainable over the longer run. People need a minimum level of sleep, time to eat, etc. So, potential output for students is the level of effort that is sustainable day after day after day, not the most that can be accomplished in a given 24 hour time period.
A business can do the same thing. If it has 10% of its trucks off the road for maintenance at any given time (i.e. "sleeping"), it can keep those on the road when demand is really high to deliver a little extra, keep workers overtime, run the production lines 24 hours a day without maintenance, etc. But that kind of effort, though possible in short bursts, is not sustainable over the longer haul (with the existing level of resources). Trucks and production lines have to be taken down for maintenance every so often or there will be big problems down the road, people won't work long days continuously, etc. Here, too, when we talk about potential output we don't mean how much the economy can produce in the short-run when it's overheated (sort of like just before an exam), but rather what it can do on a sustainable basis over time with a given quantity of inputs.
More formally, then, we can define potential output as the level of output the economy would produce if labor and all other resources are fully and efficiently employed, where full employment means the maximum sustainable level of activity.
But how do we actually measure potential output? Here' Frederic Mishkin with the details on three different approaches. It's not easy:
Estimating Potential Output, by Governor Frederic S. Mishkin, Federal Reserve: This conference focuses on measurement issues, and in my remarks I want to focus on one of the most important measurement issues that we at the Federal Reserve and other central banks face: How do we determine whether the economy is operating above or below its maximum sustainable level? That is, how do we estimate the path of potential output?1
October 04, 2007
October 03, 2007
Class Materials for Lecture 4
Brief Outline of Topics Covered in Lecture 4
Chapter 12 Structure of Central Banks and the Federal Reserve System
Informal Structure of the Federal Reserve System
- How Power Has Been Centralized Over Time
How Independent is the Fed?
Should The Fed Be Independent?
- The Case for Independence
- The Case Against Independence
Chapter 13 Multiple Deposit Creation and the Money Supply Process
Four Players in the Money Supply Process
The Fed’s Balance Sheet
- Liabilities
- Assets
Control of the Monetary Base
- Open Market Operations with Bank
- Open Market Operations with an Individual and shifts between Currency and Deposits
Materials from class:
Central Bank Independence and Inflation
From "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," by Alberto Alesina and Lawrence H. Summers, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 25, No. 2. (May, 1993), pp. 151-162 (the link will work on UO net, but I don't expect you to read the paper as it is a bit technical):
This has changed with the adoption of inflation targeting by central banks. Note also that Adam Posen casts doubt on whether causality runs from central bank independence to improved macroeconomic performance in Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?, NY Fed Staff Report, May 1995.
Video:
Lecture 4 [Google video] - Fall 2007
Lecture 4 [Media Player] - Fall 2007
| Economics 470 Lecture 4 (Google chooses the fixed frame...) |
|
Previous (these were taped outside of class):
Lecture 4 - Chapter 12, pgs. 321-330; Chapter 13, pgs. 333-340
Google Video
Lecture 4 Wiki
This is an area you can edit as you wish [edit password=lecture4].
Additional Reading:
Application:
On global finance:
Financial Globalization's New Power Source, by David Wessel, WSJ: In the blizzard of headlines about borrowing by private-equity firms, rising oil prices and accumulating hoards of cash at Asian central banks, it's hard to tell if this is part of the same old story of money sloshing around the globe, or if something big is happening.
Pension funds, mutual funds and insurers still hold a bigger chunk of the world's financial assets ($59.4 trillion) than more recent pools of capital. But four newcomers are gaining rapidly: Asian central banks, hedge funds, private-equity funds and petrodollar investors, the ones pocketing the proceeds from $80-a-barrel oil.
Together the four hold $8.4 trillion, excluding overlap, roughly $1 of every $20 in the global financial system. Their assets have tripled since 2000.
Even if oil prices fall back to $50 a barrel, China's giant trade surplus shrinks and growth in private-equity and hedge funds slows, McKinsey Global Institute, the think-tank arm of the big consulting firm, projects the assets of these Big Four will double by 2012.
Their rise amounts to a new phase in the globalization of financial markets. They are one important way in which economic earthquakes spread from one country to another. Europe's economy is shuddering not because the U.S. is importing fewer Mercedes or bottles of French wine, but because financial shock waves from defaults on subprime mortgages in Detroit are jolting banks in Düsseldorf.
"The new power brokers represent a structural shift in global capital markets," McKinsey says in a 174-page analysis out today. Their growth, the analysts add, is "mutually reinforcing" as oil barons put their petrodollars in hedge funds, and so on.
How big is big? The carefully researched report, "The New Power Brokers," is studded with morsels like these:
October 01, 2007
Class Materials for Lecture 3
Brief Outline of Topics Covered in Lecture 3
Chapter 12 Structure of Central Banks and the Federal Reserve System
Origins of the Federal Reserve System
- Distribute power to geographic regions, the public sector, the private sector, the business sector, and the financial sector
Formal Structure of the Federal Reserve System
- Federal Reserve Banks
- Member Banks
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
- The Federal Advisory Council (FAC)
Informal Structure of the Federal Reserve System
- How Power Has Been Centralized Over Time
Materials from class:
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The Twelve Federal Reserve Districts
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Video:
Lecture 3 [Google video] - Fall 2007
Lecture 3 [Media Player] - Fall 2007
| Economics 470 Lecture 3 (Google chooses the fixed frame...) |
|
Previous (these were taped outside of class):
Lecture 3 - Chapter 12, pgs. 311-321
Google Video
Lecture 3 Wiki
This is an area you can edit as you wish [edit password=lecture3].
Additional Reading:
- Dual Banking in the U.S.
- A brief History of the U.S. Payments Mechanism
- The Evolution of Central Banking in the U.S.
- The Revolution in Monetary Policymaking Institutions, by Alex Cukierman
Application:
Core versus Headline Inflation
Economics 470
Mark Thoma
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