« Radio Economics: The Economic Impact of Katrina | Main | And the Hours are Better Too... »

Tuesday, September 13, 2005

CBOT Fed Watch: Chance of 25 bps Rate Hike is 82%

The chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, according to the market's assessment at today's close, is 82%:

CBOT Fed Watch: Based upon the September 13  market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the October 2005 expiration is currently pricing in an 82 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 3-1/2 percent to 3-3/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on September 20 (versus an 18 percent probability of no rate change):

September 13: 18% for No Change versus 82% for +25 bps.
September 14:
September 15:

September 16:
September 19

September 20:  FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.

I will update these probabilities daily.

    Posted by on Tuesday, September 13, 2005 at 01:44 PM in Economics, Monetary Policy | Permalink  TrackBack (0)  Comments (0)


    TrackBack URL for this entry:

    Listed below are links to weblogs that reference CBOT Fed Watch: Chance of 25 bps Rate Hike is 82%:


    Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.