The chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, according to the market's assessment at today's close, is 82%:
CBOT Fed Watch: Based upon the September 13 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the October 2005 expiration is currently pricing in an 82 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 3-1/2 percent to 3-3/4 percent at the FOMC meeting on September 20 (versus an 18 percent probability of no rate change):
September 13: 18% for No Change versus 82% for +25 bps.
September 20: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
I will update these probabilities daily.