This research from the NY Fed finds evidence that structural change accounts for the anemic job growth during recent recoveries. The first figure shows that recovery from recent recessions has been different from previous recoveries by showing that job growth was lower during the recovery from the 1990-91 recession and absent during the recovery since 2001 (this was written in August 2003). The second chart shows the difference in the behavior of temporary layoffs in the last two recessions, and the third chart contains estimates of the degree of structural change over time showing a clear upward trend in the structural component of unemployment. More details are in the paper, "Has Structural Change Contributed to a Jobless Recovery?," Erica L. Groshen and Simon Potter, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, NY Fed, August 2003:
to the Unemployment Rate
by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Undergoing Cyclical Changes and in Industries
Undergoing Structural Changes