Today's GDP report did not alter the market's assessment of a 98% probability that the federal funds rate will be increased by at least 25 bps at Tuesday's FOMC meeting:
CBOT Fed Watch: Based upon the October 28 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the November 2005 expiration is currently pricing in a 98 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 3-3/4 percent to 4 percent at the FOMC meeting on November 1 (versus a 2 percent probability of no rate change). Summary:
October 25: 0% for No Change versus 100% for +25 bps.
October 26: 2% for No Change versus 98% for +25 bps.
October 27: 2% for No Change versus 98% for +25 bps.
October 28: 2% for No Change versus 98% for +25 bps.
October 31: 2% for No Change versus 98% for +25 bps.
November 1: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
[Update: No change from 10/28 to 10/31. David Altig has more.]