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Sunday, October 30, 2005

The Use of the Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator

There has been much discussion of using the yield curve as a leading indicator. Arturo Estrella, Senior Vice President in the Research and Statistics Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reviews the evidence on the use of the yield curve as a leading indicator. The links are to the NY Fed site:

The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator, by Arturo Estrella, NY Fed: A broad literature originating in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity. Today, there exists a substantial body of evidence from which various useful stylized facts have emerged. This catalogue of some of the salient findings takes the form of answers to frequently asked questions. An extensive bibliography is also included. [FAQ Available in PDF] [Bibliography]

Frequently Asked Questions: Click on a question from the following list to go to the corresponding answer.

    Posted by on Sunday, October 30, 2005 at 12:36 AM in Economics, Monetary Policy | Permalink  TrackBack (2)  Comments (10)


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