The chance of at least a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 13, according to the market's assessment at today's close, is 100%. The market assesses a 4% chance of a 50 bps hike:
CBOT Fed Watch: Based upon the December 7 market close, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2005 expiration is currently pricing in a 100 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 4 percent to 4-1/2 percent... In addition, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is pricing in a 4 percent probability of a further 25-basis point increase in the target rate to 4-1/2 percent (versus a 96 percent probability of just a 25-basis point rate increase).
December 6: 97% +25 bps versus 3% for +50 bps.
December 7: 96% +25 bps versus 4% for +50 bps.
[Note: There is a typo in the write-up from the Board of Trade. The first 4-1/2 should be 4-1/4.]