CBOT Fed Watch

The chance of at least a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 13, according to the market's assessment at today's close, is 100%. The market assesses a 3% chance of a 50 bps hike:

CBOT Fed Watch: ...[T]he CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2005 expiration is currently pricing in a 100 percent probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 4 percent to 4-1/2 percent... In addition, the CBOT 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is pricing in a 4 percent probability of a further 25-basis point increase in the target rate to 4-1/2 percent...

Summary Table
December 6:  97% +25 bps versus 3% for +50 bps.
December 7:  96% +25 bps versus 4% for +50 bps.
December 8:  96% +25 bps versus 4% for +50 bps.
December 9:  97% +25 bps versus 3% for +50 bps.

[Note: The typo in the write-up is still there.  The first 4-1/2 should be 4-1/4.]

[Updated to include 12/9].