Trimmed-Mean PCE Inflation for June

Here's the bad news you heard about:

Trimmed-Mean PCE Inflation Rate, Dallas Fed: June 2006The trimmed-mean PCE inflation rate for June was an annualized 3.1 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for June was 2.1 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 2.9 percent. ...

One-month PCE inflation, annual rate

Jan. 06 Feb. 06 Mar. 06 Apr. 06 May 06 Jun. 06 PCE 5.9 0.9 4.3 5.6 4.6 2.1 PCE excluding food & energy 2.0 1.9 3.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 Trimmed-mean PCE 2.9 2.0 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.1

Six-month PCE inflation, annual rate

Jan. 06 Feb. 06 Mar. 06 Apr. 06 May 06 Jun. 06 PCE 3.3 2.6 1.5 1.9 3.5 3.9 PCE excluding food & energy 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.7 Trimmed mean PCE 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.9

12-month PCE inflation

Jan. 06 Feb. 06 Mar. 06 Apr. 06 May 06 Jun. 06 PCE 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 PCE excluding food & energy 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 Trimmed mean PCE 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

NOTE: These data are subject to revision

...The following chart plots the evolution of the distribution of price increases in the monthly component data over the past year. The chart shows the percentage of components each month, weighted by their shares in total spending, for which prices grew between 0 and 2 percent (at an annual rate); between 2 and 3 percent; between 3 and 5 percent; between 5 and 10 percent; and more than 10 percent.

For more on inflation and the Fed, see William Polley's "Inflation continues to creep upward... what next for Fed?" I'm hoping our local Fed Watcher will tell us what he thinks the Fed will do next week. Cleveland Fed calculations say markets aren't entirely sure:

What do you think the Fed should/will do?