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Friday, July 27, 2007

Jeremy Piger: A 1.3% Probability We Were in Recession in 2007Q1

Jeremy Piger's monthly recession probability index says there is a 1.5% chance we were in a recession in April, 2007 and the average probability for the first quarter of 2007 is 1.3%:

Piger1a72707

Piger272707

As Brad DeLong notes, Jim Hamilton's index has the probability at 26.2% for the first quarter of 2007:

Hamilton72707

Jim's post, part of which is repeated at Brad's, gives more details.

    Posted by on Friday, July 27, 2007 at 04:50 PM in Economics | Permalink  TrackBack (0)  Comments (2)

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