"Uncertainty, Climate Change, and the Global Economy"

This research concludes that "global warming will be a major problem even under very optimistic circumstances":

Uncertainty, climate change, and the global economy, by Torsten Persson and David von Below, VoxEU.org: What will the climate be like in a hundred years’ time? The answer to this question is highly uncertain, and will depend on a number of socio-economic as well as natural processes, which describe the links between human activity, emissions of greenhouse gases, and warming of the atmosphere. The existing policy discussion in important forums, such as the IPCC and Stern reports (see this Vox column), is largely based on the uncertainty about the biogeophysical and biogeochemical systems, as are analyses such as that of Wigley and Raper (2001). In a recent paper, we include such uncertainty – but highlight uncertainty about the drivers of climate change in the socioeconomic system. [...continue reading...]