"Why the Renminbi has to Rise to Address Imbalances"
Martin Feldstein joins those arguing that China must let the value of the renminbi rise:
Why the renminbi has to rise to address imbalances, by Martin Feldstein, Commentary, Financial Times: Global leaders have agreed reducing global imbalances is a priority. ...[T]hat agreement means the US must raise its national saving to be less dependent on foreign funds. China must lift domestic spending to maintain high employment without producing so many exports.
Some progress is happening on both fronts. The US household savings rate has risen, driven by the need for US households to rebuild wealth. Corporate retained earnings have also begun to rise. But increasing private saving is not enough ... if federal deficits remain high. The Obama administration must agree a budget that will reduce deficits in the years ahead.
China has succeeded in raising its domestic spending through fiscal incentives and an explosive growth of credit. ... Chinese government spending has also increased domestic demand via major rises in infrastructure investment and building low income housing.
But while these two shifts are necessary to reduce global imbalances, they are not enough..., exchange rates must also adjust.
The dollar must decline relative to other currencies to make US products more attractive to foreign buyers and to cause Americans to substitute US goods and services for imports. ... That is why the recent decline in the dollar relative to the euro, the yen and other currencies is ... natural and desirable...
Unfortunately, the Chinese government has not allowed the renminbi to appreciate. ... With the dollar falling relative to other major currencies, the fixed exchange rate of the renminbi relative to the dollar has caused the Chinese currency to fall relative to the euro, yen and other currencies. The trade-weighted value of the renminbi has therefore been declining, making Chinese exports more attractive and foreign goods more expensive in China.
The result has been an increase in China’s exports from $276bn in the second quarter of the current year to $325bn in the third quarter. This helps lift GDP and jobs in China but prevents reducing global imbalances.
China’s policy of keeping the renminbi weak means that the US dollar must decline more rapidly against the euro, yen and other currencies to achieve the same overall trade-weighted fall of the dollar. China’s weak renminbi policy therefore not only prevents remedying China’s large current account surplus but also reduces Europe’s exports. ...
Although China has agreed to take steps to reduce global imbalances and its trade surplus, it is reluctant to let its currency rise. ... Fortunately, the Chinese economy is expanding rapidly and its growth is becoming less dependent on exports. When it has the confidence to allow the renminbi to rise, we will be on the path to reduced global imbalances.
[Traveling: Scheduled to post at preset time.]
Posted by Mark Thoma on Saturday, November 7, 2009 at 12:33 AM in China, Economics, International Finance |
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