The Fed Will Purchase $600 Billion in Treasury Securities
The Federal Reserve has decided to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities through the end of the second quarter of 2011. As they note, this is around $75 billion per month. That is not enough to do much by itself (update: see here on this point), but this is an important addition to the policy:
The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed
The intent is to communicate a commitment to do whatever is necessary to hit inflation and employment targets, and the commitment is intended to impact expectations and hence impact expected inflation and real interest rates. The statement that we should expect "exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period" is part of this communications strategy.
As I've said many times, I'm skeptical about this doing much, but it could help some -- though a higher level of purchases each month would have been much better (update: and the bonds should be of longer duration than the 5-6 years bonds the Fed is planning to purchase). But with fiscal policy all but off the table, with tax cuts being the possible exception, it's the best we can hope for right now.
Here's the entire statement:
Press Release, November 3, 2010, For immediate release: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts continue to be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.
To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig. Mr. Hoenig believed the risks of additional securities purchases outweighed the benefits. Mr. Hoenig also was concerned that this continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future financial imbalances and, over time, would cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations that could destabilize the economy. [Statement from Federal Reserve Bank of New York]
Also posted at MoneyWatch.
Update: I may not have been clear enough -- I agree with this assessment.
Posted by Mark Thoma on Wednesday, November 3, 2010 at 12:02 PM in Economics, Monetary Policy |
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