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Friday, February 04, 2011

The Employment Report

Quickly, between conference sessions: The employment report was disappointing in terms of job creation, and, to repeat a point from yesterday, the uncertainties looking forward and the slow recovery to date clearly indicate the need for policymakers to give the labor market more help. Here's Calculated Risk and Brad DeLong:

Calculated Risk:

January Employment Report: 36,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate, by Calculated Risk: From the BLS:

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.0 percent in January, while nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+36,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
And on the benchmark revision:
The total nonfarm employment level for March 2010 was revised downward by 378,000 ... The previously published level for December 2010 was revised downward by 452,000.
...The unemployment rate decreased to 9.0%... The Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 64.2% in January... This is the lowest level since the early '80s. ...

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.4% in January... This was significantly below expectations for payroll jobs. Weather may have been a factor. ...

Brad DeLong:

Employment Report: Household and Establishment Surveys Pointing in Very Different Directions This Morning..., by Brad DeLong: BLS:

Unemployment rate falls to 9.0% in January; payroll employment changes little (+36,000) The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.0 percent in January, while nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+36,000). Employment rose in manufacturing and retail and declined in construction and transportation...

I want a trained professional to analyze this. It is not unusual for the series to do something odd around Christmastide. It is not unusual for the series to diverge. Not this much.

    Posted by on Friday, February 4, 2011 at 07:58 AM in Economics, Unemployment | Permalink  Comments (62)


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