Quick post before heading to the airport.
Testimony on Last Year’s Major Health Care Legislation, CBO Director's Blog: This morning I testified before the House Energy and Commerce’s Subcommittee on Health on CBO’s analysis of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and the health care provisions of last year’s Reconciliation Act. With the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), we have provided the Congress with extensive analyses of the legislation, and my written statement summarizes that work.
Effects of the Legislation on Insurance Coverage and on the Federal Budget
- Number of People with Insurance Coverage: We estimate that the legislation will increase the number of nonelderly Americans with health insurance by roughly 34 million in 2021. About 95 percent of legal nonelderly residents will have insurance coverage in that year, compared with a projected share of 82 percent in the absence of that legislation and 83 percent currently. The legislation will generate this increase through a combination of a mandate for nearly all legal residents to obtain health insurance; the creation of insurance exchanges through which certain people will receive federal subsidies; and a significant expansion of Medicaid. ...
- Net Budgetary Impact of the Legislation: PPACA and the Reconciliation Act also reduced the growth of Medicare’s payment rates for most services; imposed certain taxes on people with relatively high income; and made various other changes to the tax code, Medicare, Medicaid, and other programs. As you can see in the figure below, those provisions will reduce direct spending and increase revenues, providing an offset to the cost of the coverage provisions. According to our latest comprehensive estimate of the legislation, the net effect of changes in direct spending and revenues is a reduction in budget deficits of $210 billion over the 2012-2021period. In addition to those budgetary effects, the legislation will affect spending that is subject to future appropriation action. CBO has estimated that the Internal Revenue Service and the Department of Health and Human Services will each incur costs of between $5 billion and $10 billion over the next 10 years to implement the legislation. The laws also authorized other appropriations, most of which were for activities that were already being carried out under prior law or that had been previously authorized.
Estimated Effects of PPACA and the Health Care Provisions of the Reconciliation Act on the Federal Budget
(Billions of dollars, by fiscal year)
My written statement describes this estimate in more detail and touches on other effects that we have estimated—including the budgetary impact in the second decade and the laws’ impact on health insurance premiums and employment. ...