FRBSF: Structural and Cyclical Elements in Macroeconomics

I am here today:

Structural and Cyclical Elements in Macroeconomics
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Janet Yellen Conference Center, First Floor
March 16, 2012

AGENDA

Morning Session Chair: John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

8:10 A.M. Continental Breakfast

8:50 A.M. Welcoming Remarks: John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

9:00 A.M. Jinzu Chen, International Monetary Fund, Prakash Kannan, International Monetary Fund, Prakash Loungani, International Monetary Fund   Bharat Trehan, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco New Evidence on Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment (PDF - 462KB)  
Discussants: Steven Davis, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Valerie Ramey, University of California, San Diego

10:20 A.M. Break

10:40 A.M. Robert Hall, Stanford University   Quantifying the Forces Leading to the Collapse of GDP after the Financial Crisis (PDF - 826KB)   Discussants: Antonella Trigari, Università Bocconi, Roger Farmer, University of California, Los Angeles

12:00 P.M. Lunch – Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor  

Afternoon Session Chair: Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

1:15 P.M. Charles Fleischman, Federal Reserve Board, John Roberts, Federal Reserve Board, From Many Series, One Cycle: Improved Estimates of the Business Cycle from a Multivariate Unobserved Components Model (PDF - 302KB)  
Discussants: Carlos Carvalho, Pontificia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro, Ricardo Reis, Columbia University

2:35 P.M. Break

2:50 P.M. Christopher Carroll, Johns Hopkins University, Jiri Slacalek, European Central Bank, Martin Sommer, International Monetary Fund   Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Credit, Wealth, and Precautionary
Effects (PDF - 1.18MB)  
Discussants: Karen Dynan, Brookings Institution, Gauti Eggertsson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

4:10 P.M. Break

4:25 P.M. Andreas Fuster, Harvard University, Benjamin Hebert, Harvard University, David Laibson, Harvard University Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing (PDR - 663KB)  
Discussants: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley, Stefan Nagel, Stanford Graduate School of Business

5:45 P.M. Reception – West Market Street Lounge, Fourth Floor

6:30 P.M. Dinner – Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor, Introduction: John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Speaker: Peter Diamond, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Unemployment and Debt