Cold Water on QE3?, by Tim Duy: I am supposed to be working on a fifty-minute presentation on the global economy, but am struggling to wrap my mind around all the moving pieces at this time. It would be easier if I had two or three hours. So, in the meantime, I choose to procrastinate with a little Fed-watching.
It seems that market participants are looking for the Fed to ride to the rescue with another round of quantitative easing. I doubt that conditions are dire enough to deliver that outcome at the next meeting, but could easily see a European-driven deterioration in financial markets driving such an outcome. A lot could hinge on tomorrow's ECB meeting - they really need to cut rates to at least sustain some expectation channel. Consensus view, however, is no policy change. From the Wall Street Journal:
Although a rate cut this week can't be ruled out entirely, the central bank is likely to hold off this time while potentially starting to prepare the ground for a rate cut at its next meeting in July or later.
Behind the curve, per usual. I think no action is going to be a significant disappointment, so I am hoping to be surprised. Quite honestly, doing nothing is really almost impossible to imagine as it would represent complete and total failure on the part of the ECB. Still, I don't put it past them.
We have a couple of new comments in the wake of last week's disappointing jobs report. One from a credible policymaker, via the Wall Street Journal:
"I'd have to see a substantial change in my outlook" to be convinced the Fed should do more, Ms. Pianalto, 57 years old, said Friday, in the second of two exclusive interviews with The Wall Street Journal over consecutive days. "I don't think this employment report, in and of itself, is likely to lead to a substantial change in my outlook. Consequently, it would not lead me, at this time, given what I know about my outlook, to change my position on policy." It was her first interview with a national news outlet in her 10 years as a regional Fed chief.
Sounds like middle-ground contentment with current policy. I don't think Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto would say something that was not broadly consistent with the dominate view with in the Fed. That said, there is some wiggle room here. The current baseline is for Operation Twist to come to an end. Arguably, not continuing the program could be seen as doing less, while continuing is just maintaining the status quo. Indeed, extending Operation Twist is the path of least resistance for policymakers should they want to act.
Turning to less-credible policymakers, we also got comments from Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher. Via Reuters:
Asked directly whether the May jobs report could prompt the central bank to embark on a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, Fisher said the Fed must be careful not to overreact to economic data. "Short of an implosion, I cannot support further quantitative easing," he said.
No surprise here, but I would say that Fisher's confidence is waning. He can't support further easing, but doesn't say it will not happen. This is less certain than his comments earlier this year that QE3 is a "fantasy."
More important guidance is still coming. Pianalto's message might be consistent with the last FOMC meeting, but we have frequently seen the regional presidents fall behind the thinking at the Board of Governors. Tomorrow night we get some insight into the Board with a speech by Vice-Chair Janet Yellen, followed on Thursday with Senate testimony by the Chairman Ben Bernanke. These are really the speeches to watch, and both will have to tread carefully. Considering the relative fragility of financial markets, they will not want to send mixed signals going into this next meeting.
Bottom Line: Arguably, Pianalto and Fisher threw cold water on the idea of further action. The former voice is credible, but could easily be behind the curve. The latter voice is simply not credible. More important signals should come latter this week. If Yellen and/or Bernanke (I suspect they will coordinate) follow in Pianalto's footsteps and downplays the jobs report, the expectation should be for steady policy later this month. But if Yellen/Bernanke embrace the report, we should anticipate an extension of Operation Twist at a minimum.