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Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Calculated Risk on New Home Sales

Calculated Risk:

New Home Sales at 437,000 SAAR in January, by Bill McBride: ... On New Home Sales: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 437 thousand. This was up from a revised 378 thousand SAAR in December (revised up from 369 thousand). ...
This is the strongest sales rate since 2008. This was another solid report. ... [New Home Sales graphs]

There are, of course, lots of graphs in the original post. In another post, he adds:

1) January is seasonally the weakest month of the year for new home sales, so January has the largest positive seasonal adjustment. Also this was just one month with a sales rate over 400 thousand - and we shouldn't read too much into one month of data. But this was the highest level since July 2008 and it is clear the housing recovery is ongoing. 
2) Although there was a large increase in the sales rate, sales are still near the lows for previous recessions. This suggest significant upside over the next few years (based on estimates of household formation and demographics, I expect sales to increase to 750 to 800 thousand over the next several years).
3) Housing is historically the best leading indicator for the economy, and this is one of the reasons I think The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades. Note: The key downside risk is too much austerity too quickly, but that is a different post. ...

    Posted by on Tuesday, February 26, 2013 at 11:16 AM in Economics, Housing | Permalink  Comments (24)


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