Have Blog, Will Travel: INET Hong Kong

Here today:

Changing of the Guard
INET Conference 2013
Hong Kong

Thursday, April 4, 2013

12:30 - 14:15

• OPENING REMARKS Robert Johnson - Executive Director, INET
• WELCOME REMARKS BY FGI AND INET LEADERSHIP
  Victor K. Fung - Chairman, Fung Global Institute
  Anatole Kaletsky - Chairman, INET Governing Board
  Rohinton Medhora - President, CIGI
• LUNCH
• LUNCH KEYNOTE (OPENING) GROWTH ADJUSTMENT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASIA: THE CHALLENGE AHEAD?

  The developed economies of Europe, North America, and Japan are facing tremendous challenges related to indebtedness and stagnation. How will the developing economies of Asia respond to this challenge as they reorient their growth strategies to meet the rising aspirations of their people?

  Victor K. Fung - Chairman, Fung Global Institute Edwin Lim - Director, China Economic Research and Advisory Program
  A. Michael Spence - Academic Council Chairman, Fung Global Institute

  Moderator: Orville Schell - Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society

14:15 - 16:15

• PLENARY PANEL INNOVATION SYSTEMS The Foundations of Economic Prosperity: The Lessons of Innovation Process and History

  The transformation of basic science into viable inventions that improve the well-being of mankind is a delicate process. The study of innovation, both in the past and the present, reveals a complex process that involves complementary contributions from government, the financial markets, and the investment community What has worked in past and what current strategies are being successfully employed by nations around the world?

  Li Daokui – Mansfield Freeman Chair, Professor,Department of Finance, Tsinghua University
  Bill Janeway - Senior Advisor, Warburg Pincus; INET Governing Board
  Edward Jung - Founder & Chief Technology Officer, Intellectual Ventures
  Mari Pangestu - Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Republic of Indonesia
  Lord David Sainsbury - Chancellor, University of Cambridge

  Moderator: Peter Jungen - Peter Jungen Holding; INET Governing Board

16:15 - 16:45

• COFFEE BREAK

16:45 - 18:15

• PLENARY PANEL INTERSUBJECTIVITY: RENÉ GIRARD’S VISION OF MIMETIC DESIRE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS Rene Girard, a French-born literary scholar, has developed a theory of the formation of desire that is based upon interactions between individuals. The process he calls mimetic desire, when brought to bear on economic thinking, may have profound implications for the theory of the consumer/individual, for the normative conclusions of economic theory, and for economic dynamics in an era of environmental challenges. A group of scholars who have been engaged exploring the implications of Girard’s thinking and the ramifications for the social sciences provide a window into this new realm of economic thinking.

  Presenter: Edward Fullbrook - University of the West of England
  Presenter: Jean-Pierre Dupuy, Professor of Philosophy, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris
  Mark Anspach, Research Fellow, CREA, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris
  Paul Dumouchel - Professor of Philosophy, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan
  André Orléan, Professor of Economics, Ecole Normale Supérieure

  Moderator: Jean-Pierre Dupuy, Professor of Philosophy, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris

18:30 - 19:30

• COCKTAIL RECEPTION & PERFORMANCE BY HOI CHUI

19:30 - 21:30

• DINNER KEYNOTE Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Stability: Lessons of the Historical Experience with Fiat Money and the Implications for the Future

  Adair Lord Turner explores the role of financial, monetary, and fiscal policy management in this era of deficient aggregate demand, and discussants explore the implications of Turner’s thinking on monetary financing of debt in light of the current challenges facing many nations at the forefront of the world economy.

  Introduction: George Soros - Chairman, Soros Fund Management; Open Society Foundations
  Keynote Presenter: Adair, Lord Turner - Chairman, Financial Services Administration
  Discussion: Hiroshi Watanabe - CEO/Executive Managing Director Japan bank for International Co- operation
  William White - Chairman of the Economic Development and Review Committee at the OECD

  Moderator: Hu Shuli - Editor-in-Chief, Caixin Media

Friday, April 5, 2013

8:00 - 9:00

• SUNRISE BREAKFAST PLENARY BUSINESS LEADERS PANEL: THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD AND ASIA'S ROLE
  
  Jim Balsillie - Founder and chair of The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
  Ronnie Chan - Chairman, Hang Lung Properties
  Mari Pangestu - Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Republic of Indonesia
  
  Moderator: Victor K. Fung - Chairman, Fung Global Institute

9:15 - 10:45

• PLENARY PANEL THE RMB AND THE FUTURE OF ASIAN FINANCE

  The architecture of the international monetary system has important implications for the privileges and responsibilities of the reserve currency countries at the center of the system. As China continues to develop and become a leading economy in the global system, it will be important to understand the evolving role of the RMB as a potential new reserve currency and to understand both the domestic and international ramifications of this institutional evolution.

  Introduction: Yanqing Yang - Deputy Editor-in-Chief, China Business News
  Barry Eichengreen - Professor, University of California at Berkeley
  Jean Pisani Ferry - Director, Bruegel
  Sylvia Ng - Head of Strategy and Planning, HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited
  Yu Yongding - Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, CASS

  Moderator: Paola Subacchi - Research Director, International Economics Chatham House

10:45 - 11:15

• COFFEE BREAK

11:15 - 12:45

• BREAKOUT SESSIONS

  BREAKOUT SESSION A THE EURO ZONE CURRENCY SYSTEM: CATALYST OR WRECKING BALL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?

  The flaws in the euro zone single currency system that were uncovered by the crisis of 2008 have crippled many European nations for more than four years. Self-fulfilling sovereign debt default spirals, persistent intolerable levels of unemployment, and disputes over the proper role for the European Central Bank are telltale symptoms of a social and economic system in disarray. What can be done to fix this system? Can it be repaired and once again become the basis for a hopeful and balanced integration of Europe?

  Erik Berglof - Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
  Dennis Snower - President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
  Lars Feld, Professor of Ecnomics University of Frieburg
  Discussant: Harold James - Claude and Lore Kelly Professor, Princeton University
  Discussant : Leif Pagrotsky - Member of Parliament, Sweden

  Moderator: Niels Thygesen - Professor Emeritus, University of Copenhagen

  BREAKOUT SESSION B FINANCIAL STABILITY AND REGULATORY DESIGN

  INET's financial stability research program encompasses a range of working groups. These focus on the causes and consequences of the instability of the financial system, and on new modeling approaches to credit and the macroeconomy. Agent-based and network-based models provide a window into the system's dynamic instability, while legal and political-economic approaches shed light on the institutional architecture of the financial system.

  Anat Admati - Professor, Stanford University
  Simon Johnson - Professor, MIT; Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute
  Katharina Pistor - Professor, Columbia Law School
  Andrew Sheng - President, Fung Global Institute

  Moderator: Perry Mehrling - Director of Education Programs, INET

  BREAKOUT SESSION C NEW APPROACHES TO ECONOMIC CHALLENGES – ORGANIZED BY OECD

  This session will feature the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) initiative on New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC). NAEC is an organisation-wide reflection process to upgrade the analytical frameworks and strengthen the policy advice of the OECD. Its objective is to develop a strategic policy agenda for inclusive growth. The financial and economic crisis is a key motivation for NAEC, but the reflection also aims to identify policy options to address the current challenges we are facing (slow growth, high unemployment, increasing inequality), as well as the rise in interconnectedness and complexity of the world economy.

  Gabriela Ramos – Chief of Staff and G20 Sherpa, OECD
  Discussant: Barry Eichengreen - Professor, Berkeley
  Discussant: Robert Johnson – Executive Director, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
  Discussant: William White - Chairman of the Economic Development and Review Committee at the OECD

  Moderator: Pier Carlo Padoan – Deputy Secretary General and Chief Economist, OECD

12:45 - 14:45

• LUNCH KEYNOTE TIME AND EXPECTATIONS IN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

  The formation of expectations and the subtle implicit assumptions regarding knowledge held by consumers, businesses, investors, and policy makers is a foundation stone that must be thoroughly explored so that models of economic dynamics represent the phenomena under investigation in an illuminating manner. The obvious presence of non-routine change, or what Frank Knight called radical uncertainty, challenges the very notion that dynamic economic systems can be modeled as closed systems. How do these models perform? If dynamic economics is better envisioned as an open system, what can researchers do to understand and analyze the decision making process? What are the implications for economic policy and governance of open system dynamics?

  Sheila Dow - Emeritus Professor, University of Stirling
  Roman Frydman -Professor of Economics, New York University
  Roger Guesnerie -Chairman of the Board, Paris School of Economics
  George Soros -Chairman, Soros Fund Management; Open Society Foun- dations

  Moderator: Axel Leijonhufvud - Professor, University of California Los Angeles

14:50 - 16:30

• EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING

  EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING SESSION A THE IMPERFECT KNOWLEDGE ECONOMICS (IKE) APPROACH TO MODELING AN OPEN WORLD

  The INET research program on IKE is working at the University of Copenhagen, New York University, and the University of New Hampshire to understand the implications of fallibility for economic systems. In these sessions, IKE researchers will discuss how they model risk in asset markets and the evolution of asset prices in a world characterized by imperfect knowledge.

  Moderator: Michael Goldberg - Professor, University of New Hampshire

  Part 1 (3:00-3:55): IKE Modeling of Asset Prices

  Nick Mangee - Junior Research Associate, INET Program on IKE Rationality in the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Fundamentals, Psychology, and Structural Change
  Peter Sullivan - Junior Research Associate, INET Program on IKE Rationality and the Meese and Rogoff Exchange-Rate-Disconnect Puzzle: Learning vs. Contingent Knowledge
  Morten Tabor - Research Associate, INET Center on IKE at the University of Copenhagen Econometrics of IKE Models

  General Discussion (15 minutes)

  Part 2 (15:55-16:30): IKE Modeling of Risk in Asset Markets

  Olesia Kozlova - Junior Research Associate, INET Program on IKE Forward-Rate Bias, Contingent Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries
  Josh Stillwagon - Junior Research Associate, INET Program on IKE A Keynes-IKE Model of Currency Risk: A Cointegrated VAR Investigation

  General Discussion (10 minutes)

  EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING SESSION B WHAT IS THE ROLE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS IN ECONOMICS?

  Many of our global problems – from climate change to financial crises – arise from people’s failure to cooperate adequately to achieve socially desirable outcomes. There is a widespread recognition that we need a deeper understanding of human nature in order to discern new opportunities for human cooperation. The Kiel Institute and the Max Planck Institute in Leipzig are developing an interdisciplinary program with INET to examine new avenues of how psychological and neuroscientific knowledge about human motivation, emotion and social cognition can inform models of economic decision making. How can a profounder understanding of human motivation and preferences lead to a broader appreciation of our prospects for pro-social and sustainable economic behaviors?

  David Tuckett - Training and Supervising Analyst in the British Psychoanalytical Society
  Inske Pirschel - Research Assistant, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel
  Gert Pönitzsch - Research Assistant, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
  Cars Hommes - Professor of Economics Universiteit van Amsterdam

  Moderator: Dennis Snower - President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

16:45 - 18:15

• PLENARY PANEL CHINA IN THE WORLD: GROWTH, ADJUSTMENT AND INTEGRATION

  The Chinese economy has developed at a remarkable pace over the last 30 years. The integration of China into the world economy has led to extraordinary flows of foreign direct investment, infrastructure buildup, and an impressive export capacity. As we look to the future, both domestic and international considerations bear on the capacity for China to continue on this robust course and for the world to adjust to China’s growth and changed role. The differences in philosophical, legal, and governance systems between China and the West suggest that the challenges will be formidable and that cooperation and mutual benefit will require extraordinary attention.

  Daniel A. Bell - Professor, Tsinghua University
  Jan Kregel - Senior scholar at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
  Huang Yiping -Professor of Economics, National School of Development, Peking University
  Yu Yongding - Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, CASS

  Moderator: Xiao Geng - Director of Research and Senior Fellow, Fung Global Institute

18:15 - 19:30

• COCKTAIL RECEPTION

19:30 - 21:30

• DINNER KEYNOTE & PANEL CAPITALISM AND THE RULE OF LAW

  How do different nations handle the problem of social design? What is the role of legal systems in creating and implementing that design? There is a large body of comparative evidence on the behaviors and performance of different legal traditions. These concerns are of vital importance to emerging nations as they plot their course toward institutional deepening and maturation to facilitate their development.

  Niall Ferguson - Professor, Harvard University
  Katharina Pistor - Professor, Columbia Law School

  Moderator: Anatole Kaletsky - Chairman, INET Governing Board

Saturday, April 6, 2013

9:15 - 10:45

• PLENARY PANEL INEQUALITY IN CHINA, INDIA AND AMERICA: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

  The extraordinary development of the emerging economies has been associated with increasing incomes and rising inequality. In the developed world, the integration between emerging and mature economies also has been accompanied by rising inequality, most profoundly in the United States. A myriad of causes related to trade, policy, and technological change have been cited as, reasons for the unequal distribution of income and wealth in varying degrees. As the process continues, what are the implications for societies across the planet as these three large and powerful economies move into the future?

  Steven Durlauf - Professor, University of Wisconsin
  Xiao Geng - Director of Research and Senior Fellow Fung Global Institute
  John McArthur - Senior Fellow, Fung Global Institute
  Sanjay Reddy - Associate Professor of Economics, Director of Undergraduate Studies, The New School for Social Research

  Moderator: Pier Carlo Padoan - Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist of the OECD

10:50 - 12:20

• BREAKOUT SESSIONS

  BREAKOUT SESSION A AUSTERITY, POLARIZATION, AND THE PROSPECT OF REGIME CHANGE

  Both the international economy and the economies of many individual countries are badly out of balance. Not surprisingly, political polarization and social cleavages are sharply increasing within many, though not at the same rate. This panel looks at the varying experiences of Europe, the US, and some countries in Asia, considering not only the domestic roots and complications of policy making, but also how austerity continues to generate major turmoil and challenges to existing political arrangements.

  Thomas Ferguson - Professor, UMASS, Boston; INET (On the USA) Contributor: Jie Chen University Statistician at the UMASS, Boston
  Paul Jorgensen - Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Texas, Pan American
  Ching Kwan Lee - Professor, UCLA (On China)
  David Vines - Professor, University of Oxford
  Junsen Zhang - Professor of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong

  Moderator: Steven Durlauf - Professor of Economics, University of Wisconsin

  BREAKOUT SESSION B INEQUALITY IN CHINA

  INET's Human Capital and Economic Opportunity working group discusses advances in Chinese inequality research and critical findings of working group members.

  Albert Park - Professor of Economics, Chair Professor of Social Science, Hong Kong Institute for Science and Technology
  Scott Rozelle - Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow Stanford University
  Dali Yang - Professor of Political Science and Faculty Director, Center in Beijing, University of Chicago
  Junsen Zhang - Professor of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong

  Moderator: Steven Durlauf - Professor of Economics, University of Wisconsin

12:30 - 14:15

• LUNCH KEYNOTE WHAT IS DEVELOPMENT?

  Many developing countries have experienced rapid increases in GDP growth, and traditionally this was considered an adequate proxy for improved human welfare within these countries. However, in recent years some countries have experienced higher growth accompanied by environmental degradation, rising inequality and, social unrest. As a result, we are forced to ask what it is that constitutes real progress and development in a society.

  James Heckman - Henry Schultz Professor, University of Chicago
  Sir James Alexander Mirlees - Professor and Master, Morningside College Chinese University of Hong Kong

  Moderator: A. Michael Spence - Academic Council Chairman, Fung Global Institute

14:30 - 15:45

• EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING

  EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING SESSION A FINANCIAL INSTABILITY WORKING GROUP

  The INET program on financial instability and macroeconomics has developed a series of studies on dynamically unstable systems. Shadow banking instability, contagious network dynamics, and stock/flow interactive models will be discussed to showcase a series of research projects that are unfolding with INET support.

  Dan Awrey - University Lecturer in Law & Finance, University of Oxford
  Co-Pierre Georg - Research Economist, The Research Center of Deutsche Bundesbank
  Arie Krampf - Postdoctoral fellow, Freie Universität Berlin
  Alberto Russo - Assistant Professor of Economics, Università Politecnica delle Marche

  Moderator: Adair, Lord Turner - Chairman, Financial Services Administration

  EXPLORATIONS IN NEW ECONOMIC THINKING SESSION B GROWTH AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS

  A key question for many countries is how to re-invigorate growth after the crisis. The INET@Oxford program is collaborating with an international group of scholars on new approaches to understanding economic growth and innovation from a complex systems and evolutionary perspective. This session will review recent work and discuss its potential implications for re-thinking public policy approaches to economic growth.

  W. Brian Arthur - External Professor, Santa Fe Institute and Visiting Researcher, Intelligent Systems Lab, PARC
  J. Doyne Farmer - Co-Director, Complexity Economics, INET@Oxford
  Luciano Pietronero - Director, Institute of Complex Systems, CNR and Professor of Condensed Matter Physics, University Sapienza, Rome, Italy
  Deborah Strumsky - Assistant Professor, Public Policy University of North Carolina Charlotte

  Moderator: Eric Beinhocker - Executive Director, INET@Oxford

16:00 - 17:30

• PLENARY PANEL ECONOMICS AND THE POWERFUL: FAULTY ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC ADVICE AND THE IMPERATIVES OF POWER

  When economies exhibit dreadful results is it because we have flawed understanding? Or are correct models often ignored? Are good economists listened to? Does scientifically robust work prevail when it conflicts with the desires of the powerful? What are the lessons of economic history for understanding the role of expertise in guiding social outcomes?

  Norbert Haring - Correspondent, Handelsblatt
  Steve Keen - Professor, University of Western Sydney
  Robert Lord Skidelsky - Emeritus Professor, University of Warwick

  Moderator: Robert Johnson – Executive Director, INET

17:30 - 18:30

• COCKTAIL RECEPTION

18:30 - 20:30

• DINNER KEYNOTE THE FUTURE OF CENTRAL BANKING

  Central banks across the planet are engaging in a robust agenda that would have been unrecognizable just a few years ago. Quantitative easing, macro prudential monitoring, asset market support in Europe have all made it much more difficult to understand what a central bank does and does not do.

  Can central banks easily mop up liquidity and shrink their balance sheets when the world economy begins to recover, or will inflationary dynamics emerge? In the mystical realm of money, are central banks courting controversy that will threaten their credibility and stature within society? If they lose their leading role what will markets condition their expectation upon?

  Charles Goodhart - Professor, London School of Economics
  Richard Koo - Chief Economist of Nomura Research Institute
  Liu Mingkang - Distinguished Fellow, Fung Global Institute
  Adam Posen - President of the Peterson Institute for international Economics

  Moderator: Andrew Sheng - President, Fung Global Institute

20:30 - 21:00

• CLOSING REMARKS Robert Johnson - Executive Director, INET