Fed Watch: More Uncertainty?

Tim Duy:

More Uncertainty?, by Tim Duy: I was reading this Business Insider report on an analyst's mea culpa on a bad trade when this jumped out:

Last week, we advised investors to add to their 7s/30s and 10s/30s yield curve steepening positions with the view that Chairman Bernanke would calm expectations for tapering by September this year – helping keep rates and volatility low. These curves have since flattened back to the levels at which we suggested investors enter steepeners. Given the uncertainty Bernanke injected into the market, we suggest investors pare down positions to more sustainable levels. At the same time, we keep to our core steepening view. [emphasis added]

I find it curious the analyst believes that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke increased uncertainty. I think it was just the opposite. Prior to Bernanke's remarks, opinion on policy was scattered among some looking for the Fed to scale back asset purchases as early as June and as late as 2014. Bernake narrowed that range to September as a likely date, and cleared the way for New York Federal Reserve President WIlliam Dudley and Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren to point us at September as well. Overall, it looks like more, not less, certainty.

Perhaps market participants are unhappy with the path Bernanke laid out, but that path is more obvious than it was a week ago.