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Tuesday, September 03, 2013

Fed Watch: ISM a Solid Start to the Month

One more from Tim Duy:

ISM a Solid Start to the Month, by Tim Duy: The ISM report surprised mildly on the upside this morning, with a reading of 55.7 that remains well above the break-even point:


New orders extended last month's gains to lift the component above 60:


Export orders continue their gradual recovery from a slip earlier this year and last year's swoon:


And import orders suggest strong domestic demand:


Sam Ro at Business Insider worries about a slip in the employment component:


I am not sure the the decline is anything more than noise, and I don't think anyone is counting on significant support for nonfarm payrolls from the manufacturing sector in any event:


Bottom Line: A generally solid report consistent with expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering asset purchases this month. It is probably time for me to change my charts to indicate timing of first rate hikes in past tightening cycles.

    Posted by on Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 01:12 PM in Economics, Fed Watch, Monetary Policy | Permalink  Comments (2)


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