Debt and Growth: There is No Magic Threshold
New paper from the IMF:
Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?, by Andrea Pescatori ; Damiano Sandri ; John Simon [Free Full text]: Summary: Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dramatically compromised. Furthermore, we find the debt trajectory can be as important as the debt level in understanding future growth prospects, since countries with high but declining debt appear to grow equally as fast as countries with lower debt. Notwithstanding this, we find some evidence that higher debt is associated with a higher degree of output volatility.
[Via Bruce Bartlett on Twitter.]
Posted by Mark Thoma on Thursday, February 13, 2014 at 02:49 PM in Academic Papers, Economics, Fiscal Policy |
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